Nitin Sacheti of Papyrus Capital presented his in-depth investment thesis on Genesis Energy LP (US: GEL) at Best Ideas 2026.
Thesis summary:
Genesis Energy is an MLP operating offshore pipeline transportation in the Gulf of Mexico, marine transportation, and onshore services. Nitin highlights a corporate transformation driven by the sale of the company’s volatile soda ash business in Q2 2025 and the completion of a major pipeline capex cycle. These strategic shifts have eliminated the earnings obfuscation caused by historical commodity volatility and high spending, revealing a cleaner balance sheet and a stable, growing FCF structure anchored by three remaining business segments.
The company is now benefitting from a “flywheel effect” driven by rising earnings and declining capital intensity. The offshore pipeline segment, described as the “crown jewel,” features irreplaceable assets tied to deepwater drills with low lifting costs and high capacity utilization. As new projects like the CHOPS, Poseidon, and SYNC pipelines come online with take-or-pay contracts, volume ramps from developments such as Shenandoah and Salamanca will drive FCF growth. Concurrently, the marine transportation segment benefits from the Jones Act moat and a supply/demand imbalance that supports higher day rates, while the onshore business provides stable, fee-based logistics support.
A central pillar of the thesis is management’s newfound discipline regarding capital allocation. Rather than chasing high-priced acquisitions, the team is focused on deleveraging and addressing the capital structure, specifically retiring high-cost preferred equity with coupons exceeding 12%. The strategy involves modest 10-15% dividend growth in the near term, utilizing excess FCF to pay down preferreds and refinance debt. This financial engineering paves the way for a step-change in distributions, with a target payout ratio of 75% by 2027.
There appears to be limited downside risk to projections given the stable, contractual nature of the assets. The pipelines benefit from life-of-lease dedications, and the marine business is insulated by the prohibitive costs of new vessel construction and a lack of shipyard capacity. While a repeal of the Jones Act represents a theoretical risk, geopolitical dynamics make this unlikely. The primary variable is not fundamental earnings volatility, but rather the timing of capital allocation decisions as the company transitions toward a higher payout model.
The shares recently traded at $16, implying a near 50% discount to peers. Nitin estimates FCF will reach roughly $2.70 per share in 2027. The current valuation gap is largely a function of the depressed dividend yield during this deleveraging phase. However, as management executes its plan to increase the distribution to $2.00 per share in 2027, the stock is expected to re-rate. Applying a 7% yield to that future dividend implies a price of $28, offering ~75% upside.
Disclaimer
Best Ideas 2026 is held from January 6-23, 2026. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.
Slides
Let’s take a closer look.
