Alejandro Estebaranz of True Value presented his investment thesis on Unidata (Italy: UD) at European Investing Summit 2025.
Thesis Summary
Unidata is a founder-led Italian digital infrastructure provider with a portfolio of services including connectivity, cloud, and IoT solutions, underpinned by a proprietary network of over 7,000 km of fiber and two data centers. The company is positioned to capitalize on Italy’s structural need to expand its fiber network, which lags European peers, while benefiting from fiber’s technological superiority over 5G and satellite technologies. With a history of revenue growth, stable margins, and insider ownership of >55%, Unidata is a well-managed, aligned, and strategically positioned operator.
The core of the investment thesis rests on a significant inflection point expected within the next two years, driven by the completion and value crystallization of three strategic, late-stage joint ventures. These include Unifiber, a Fiber-to-the-Home (FTTH) project in the Lazio region; Unitirreno, a new low-latency submarine cable connecting Italy to Northern Europe; and Unicenter, a Tier IV data center in Rome designed for AI workloads and serving as the cable’s landing station. These de-risked projects, developed with credible partners, are all scheduled to become operational by 2025, transitioning the company from a period of heavy investment to one of significant cash flow generation and rapid deleveraging.
The company’s financial trajectory is robust, with projections indicating a revenue CAGR of 12% and an EBITDA CAGR of 15% between 2024 and 2027, while maintaining stable EBITDA margins in the 27-28% range. As capital expenditures normalize post-2025, Unidata is forecast to deleverage, with its net debt-to-EBITDA ratio expected to fall from 1.7x in 2024 to 0.4x by 2027. This financial discipline is projected to generate substantial FCF, with an implied FCF yield exceeding 20% in 2026, offering capacity for shareholder returns or further strategic investments.
Unidata’s shares recently traded at a deep discount to their intrinsic value, creating an arbitrage opportunity between public and private market valuations for digital infrastructure assets. The company’s 2025 estimated EV/EBITDA multiple of 4.5x stands in contrast to the 18-20x multiples seen in M&A for comparable FTTH assets and the 10-13x multiples for corporate peers like Retelit and EOLO. This valuation disconnect is the basis for a target price of €6.60 per share, which implies an upside of over 100% from recent levels. As the strategic joint ventures become operational and their value becomes undeniable, a re-rating of the stock is anticipated, closing the gap to its private market value.
Disclaimer
European Investing Summit 2025 was held from October 28 to November 3, 2025. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.
Slides
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