Nitin Sacheti of Papyrus Capital presented his thesis on PVA TePla (Germany: TPE) at European Investing Summit 2026.
Thesis summary:
PVA TePla is a German maker of scarce, hard-to-replicate equipment that sits at the center, or the very start, of the silicon carbide (SiC), indium phosphide (InP), HBM and silicon supply chains. Material Solutions (€172m of 2024 revenue, ~64%) builds the furnaces that grow crystal boules for slicing into wafers; Metrology (€98m, ~36%) inspects finished chips. Nitin calls it a near-monopoly the AI trade hasn’t noticed: one of the best hardware-focused PMs he knows had never heard of it.
Acoustic metrology, ~80% of Metrology and ~30% of the group, is the jewel. Nitin sees PVA’s scanning acoustic microscope (SAM) as the only production-worthy tool for finding buried voids and delaminations in HBM stacks and hybrid bonds in-line. X-ray costs three to four times as much and is far slower, so it can’t run on the line. PVA’s in-house zinc-oxide transducers reach 2,000 MHz, which no competitor builds itself. Metrology earns 45-55% gross margins, versus 24-30% in Material Solutions.
Nitin models 40% annual acoustic revenue growth, against capital markets day (CMD) guidance of 18-22%, as HBM stacks rise from 12-high toward 16- and 20-high and hybrid bonding spreads to logic. In Synthesis he assumes 17% growth versus 5-11% guidance: the SiC shift from 6- to 8-inch wafers forces net-new furnace purchases, PVA targets a share gain from 16% to 25%, and InP, the substrate for AI data center lasers, sits outside both CMD and consensus.
Orders reached a record €121.6m in Q1 2026, a 2.2x book-to-bill, and revenue should follow: metrology tools convert in four to eight months, Material Solutions projects in 12-18. Nitin expects revenue to grow from about €245m in 2025 to about €595m by 2029, with Metrology rising from 40% to 55% of the mix. Gross profit climbs from about €79m to over €260m and EBIT margins from mid-to-high single digits to the low 20s. He rates management well; the CEO is a former CFO.
Applying 21x to Nitin’s €4.67 estimate of 2029 EPS yields a €100 base target, about 2.4x the €42 price on his deck, with “meme” optionality to €150. The shares traded near €29 at the time of the talk, amid a pullback in AI capex stocks. If execution falters, he sees a takeout at €45-60, since PVA is already qualified at major logic and DRAM makers. Risks include furnace cyclicality, a better rival technology, and thin service coverage until mid-2027.
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