Adam Crocker of Logbook Investments presented his thesis on Savills (UK: SVS) at European Investing Summit 2026.
Thesis summary:
Savills is a UK real estate adviser founded in 1855, known for luxury UK residential, commercial tenant representation and recurring fee-based services that provide about half of revenue. Adam first researched it in 2014, when it entered the US by buying Studley, and a call with a senior Eastdil Secured banker introduced him to the firm. Savills closed its acquisition of Eastdil on July 31, 2026, a deal Adam sees as a good franchise buying a great one that the market has yet to appreciate.
Founded by Ben Lambert in 1967, Eastdil invented real estate investment banking and is the #1 US adviser on $100m+ transactions, with $3.0tn of volume in 2011-2025, FY25 revenue of $633m (£470m) and an 18% average EBITDA margin. It has never had an unprofitable year, and a single bonus pool keeps the culture collegial. Combined 2021-2025 volumes of $251bn make the group #2 globally, up from #7 for Savills alone, and transaction advisory rises from 38% to 48% of revenue.
Savills paid £685m in equity value (£827m EV), or 9.9x EBITDA, funded by a £553m bridge loan at 5.5-6% and £274m of new shares. Eastdil adds 20% to revenue but lifts North America from 13% to 23% of the group. Adam expects cross-selling both ways: property management on Eastdil’s pitches, and Savills’ relationships in Europe and Asia for Eastdil. Volumes remain below pre-COVID levels, while about $2.6tn of US and EU commercial real estate debt nears maturity.
Incentives look aligned: 85 Eastdil employees will own about 6.3% of Savills shares under four-to-six-year lockups, and a $195m retention pool runs through 2030. The deal is expected to bring low/mid-teens EPS accretion in 2027 and high-teens group ROCE by 2028, before synergies. Since 2005, Savills has generated over £2bn of free cash flow, about its EV today, paying £627m of dividends and £263m of net buybacks. Pro forma net debt of £594m is about 2x EBITDA, against a target below 1x.
At £10.50, Savills has a £1,825m market cap and £2,419m EV, or 9.3x pro forma LTM EBITDA of £261m, in line with its long-term median and toward the low end of the peer range of 8-14x. Adam’s base case (6% revenue growth, 9% EBITDA margin, 10x) yields £14.47, or 38% upside; his bull case gives £26.84 (+156%) and his bear case £5.59 (-47%). Risks include a prolonged downturn, rate volatility, talent departures and refinancing the bridge.
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