Ole Søeberg of Nordic Investment Partners presented his thesis on DSV (Denmark: DSV) at European Investing Summit 2026.
Thesis summary:
DSV became the world’s largest freight forwarder with its €14.3bn acquisition of DB Schenker, which closed in April 2025 and doubled revenue and staff. Founded in 1976 by Danish hauliers, it has about 147,000 employees in 90 countries and moves 2m tonnes of air and 3.7m TEU of sea freight without owning ships. Ole argues the market is distracted by integration hiccups: the stock is down 40% from its peak despite record EBIT.
The industry is highly fragmented: DSV holds about 6% of the market and the top 20 players about 40%. Ole credits a proven M&A playbook, from DFDS in 2000 through Frans Maas, ABX, UTi, Panalpina and Agility: sell the physical assets, lease them back, and move every client onto one process and one system. Air & Sea brings 52% of sales and 63% of EBIT, Road 31% and 14%, Contract Logistics 17% and 23%. Since 2006 DSV is up 12x, peers 2-4x.
Schenker should deliver DKK 9bn of annual synergies, 29% realized by Q2 2026 and all by end-2027, with group EBIT heading toward about DKK 38bn by 2030. Road is where the pain sits: Ole’s own shipment of garden stones took DSV and Schenker four weeks to move the last seven kilometers. Excluding property gains, Road earned a 2.5% EBIT margin in Q3 against a 4-5% goal, though September improved markedly. Ole sees Air & Sea heading toward a 10%-plus margin.
Acquisitions, often paid partly in shares, are followed by buybacks and cancellations; Ole expects the share count to fall year after year. Buybacks paused with net debt at 2.7x EBITDA, but the Q3 report brought a DKK 1.5bn program three months early, and the CEO bought DKK 25m of shares; the stock jumped 12%. What held Ole back is governance: the abrupt 2024 exit of star CEO Jens Bjørn Andersen, replaced by the CFO, a board revolt, and a little-known next management layer.
At about DKK 1,300, a market cap near DKK 293bn (€39bn), DSV trades at 15.5x 2027E earnings, against 24.3x for Kuehne + Nagel, and 9.7x 2027E EV/EBITDA, with a three-year EPS CAGR of 23% versus 11%. Ole sees DKK 2,000-plus as realistic a few years out, about 15% a year over three to four years, helped by bigger buybacks once gearing falls below 2x. Risks include a Road turnaround dragging into 2027, customer churn, the freight cycle and AI-driven pricing transparency.
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European Investing Summit 2026 was held from October 20-23, 2026. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.
