Shawn Kravetz of Esplanade Capital presented his thesis on Polaris Renewable Energy (Canada: PIF) at Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2025.
Thesis Summary
Polaris Renewable Energy is a Canadian renewable energy company focused on owning, operating, developing, and acquiring projects primarily in Latin America and the Caribbean. Headquartered in Toronto, Polaris recently had a market capitalization of C$253 million (US$185 million) and net debt of around US$127 million. Despite a track record characterized by modest overpromising and occasional underdelivery, the business remains compelling due to its substantial and durable cash generation. Polaris yields a notable ~7% dividend, supported by strong free cash flow with a payout ratio of ~45%.
Polaris’s valuation appears deeply discounted compared to its peers, trading at just 5.4x estimated 2025 EV/EBITDA. In contrast, comparable renewable energy companies like Boralex, Brookfield Renewable, Clearway Energy, Innergex, and Northland Power trade at average multiples of ~12x EV/EBITDA. Polaris’s discounted valuation is noteworthy, considering its robust cash generation, with a free cash flow yield recently estimated at 15.7% after deducting debt repayments.
Operationally, Polaris’s results have shown relative stability with occasional step-changes, reflected in adjusted EBITDA progressing from US$43.8 million in 2021 to a projected US$58 million in 2025. While its stock price has experienced significant volatility, it has essentially traded sideways over the past five years. This stagnant stock performance masks the underlying durability of Polaris’s cash flows and its potential growth catalysts.
Looking ahead, Polaris has multiple pathways to unlock shareholder value. A significant potential catalyst is its Puerto Rico battery storage project, representing up to US$50 million in net investment with expected EBITDA returns near 30% annually for twenty years, translating into an unlevered internal rate of return exceeding 20%. Additionally, organic growth initiatives or selective acquisitions could further enhance its value proposition. Should the valuation gap persist, strategic alternatives including a potential sale could come into play, further underpinning the attractiveness of the stock at recent valuation levels.
In sum, Polaris Renewable Energy has a stable business model with meaningful optionality. Its strong cash flow, discounted valuation, and clear strategic pathways position the company as an attractive opportunity, presenting multiple routes to upside over the next two years.
Disclaimer
Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2025 was held from June 24 through July 9, 2025. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.
Slides
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