Bogumil Baranowski of Blue Infinitas Capital presented his thesis on On Holding (US: ONON) at Best Ideas 2026.
Thesis summary:
On Holding is a Swiss premium sportswear company founded in 2010 by athlete Olivier Bernhard and entrepreneurs David Allemann and Caspar Coppetti, and listed in New York since its 2021 IPO. Its proprietary CloudTec cushioning, born of a founder’s search for a comfortable running shoe, uses hollow pods under the sole that feel like walking on clouds and make the shoe instantly recognizable. On pairs Swiss engineering and design with manufacturing in Vietnam.
On targets the high end of the running market at $160 to $180 per pair, supporting gross margins of about 60%, above Nike and Adidas. Running shoes make up 95% of sales across nine premium footwear franchises, while apparel, under 5% of sales, is still being built. About two-thirds of sales come from the Americas, a quarter from EMEA and 11% from APAC. Top-line growth exceeds 30% on roughly $3bn of sales, and brand awareness is rising among affluent, active consumers.
Bogumil calls himself a “value buyer-growth holder”: he buys good businesses with good management when they are down, cheap and out of favor. On fell 30-40% from its highs as US tariffs on Vietnam, where 90% of its shoes are made, rose from 20% to 40%, and as a high valuation, look-alike competition and weaker premium spending weighed on sentiment. The shift from a 60/40 wholesale-direct mix toward DTC lifts margins and gives On control of pricing and the brand experience.
Bogumil watched management’s response to the tariffs closely: selective price increases, the move toward higher-margin DTC, and LightSpray technology that may bring manufacturing closer to end markets. Roger Federer is an equity stakeholder rather than a paid endorser. Much of the capital will go to new owned stores, and Bogumil tracks ROIC, which has improved to the high 20% range, as openings move beyond flagship cities. Asia, China and apparel offer long runways, with the brand still early in its expansion.
The shares recently traded near $41, a market capitalization of about $13bn. The P/E reached 40-45x at one point, but Bogumil weighs it against 30% growth, while Nike trades at 20-25x and Adidas below 20x without growing at that pace. As profits rise, multiples become more attractive, and lower expectations make the entry point favorable. The main risks are brand dilution through overexpansion, margin-eroding discounting against incumbents’ look-alikes, persistent tariff and currency headwinds, and supply chain disruptions.
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