Mesut Ellialtıoğlu of Büyükdemir Asset Management presented his thesis on Migros Ticaret (Turkey: MGROS) at European Investing Summit 2026.
Thesis summary:
Migros Ticaret is Türkiye’s leading organized food retailer, founded in 1964 with Switzerland’s Migros, listed since 1991 and controlled by Anadolu Group. Mesut sees it as one of the most direct ways to own the country’s growing middle class: 86.1 million people, government debt of 23.8% of GDP, household debt near 10%, and GDP per capita he expects to rise from about $18,000 to $25,000-30,000. MSCI Turkey trades at 6.7x forward earnings, against 11.5x for MSCI EM.
Excluding IAS 29, sales grew from $4.1 billion in 2021 to $9.5 billion in 2025, a 24% dollar CAGR, with $868 million of EBITDA. Migros’s share of modern FMCG rose from 14.3% to 16.8% over 2022-25, and it is the only Turkish food retailer with positive like-for-like traffic three years running. Its 3,830 stores span proximity, supermarket, 5M hypermarket and Macrocenter premium formats. It carries no bank debt and a Fitch AA+(tur) rating.
Mesut sees three growth engines. The network added 1,265 stores since 2021, with 180-200 openings targeted for 2026 and 462 districts still to enter. Online reached 23.1% of sales in 1H26, from 16.7% in 1H23, against about 8.5% at global peers, because stores double as hubs; hybrid stores show 35% larger baskets and 200 bps higher gross margin. In the ecosystem, management targets MoneyPay adding 0.30-0.35 points to net margin and Mimeda retail media about 0.5 points to EBITDA margin by 2030.
Migros is exiting a heavy investment period: management guides capex from 3.3% of sales to about 2.5%, EBITDA margin up 100 bps by 2030, and 5-7% real revenue growth in 2026, then high single digits. ROIC was 15% in 2025, policy pays out 50% of distributable profit, and any repurchased shares would be cancelled. Mesut backs Anadolu Group and CEO Özgür Tort, at Migros for over 17 years. The roughly $700 million of cash is supplier float, not excess.
On September 11, Migros traded at $11.4 (TL 547.5), a $2.1 billion market value, 0.24x EV/sales and about 4x EV/EBITDA versus a sector near 9x (about 6x counting leases and supplier credit as debt); the 16x reported P/E reflects IAS 29 charges. Value sits ~30% below 2024 while dollar sales are ~20% higher. Mesut’s target is $17.0 (TL 820), ~50% upside. Risks: dollar net profit fell from $250 million (2023) to $144 million (2025), the lira, a weak consumer and hard discounters.
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