Kyle Campbell of Greenhaven Road Capital presented his investment thesis on Louisiana-Pacific (US: NPX) at Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2025.
Thesis Summary
Louisiana-Pacific presents a compelling investment opportunity as it transitions from a commodity-driven manufacturer to a high-margin, value-added building materials leader and is uniquely positioned to capitalize on secular housing tailwinds and operational transformation. The company’s strategic shift — converting commodity OSB mills to premium siding production and expanding its portfolio of value-added OSB products — has already driven value-add OSB from 32% to 52% of total volume over the past decade, with further growth expected.
LPX’s siding segment, anchored by the LP SmartSide and ExpertFinish brands, is a margin expansion story and is set to play out after recent capacity expansions, with research indicating segment EBITDA margins should reach or exceed 35%. The OSB business, historically cyclical, is becoming more resilient and profitable as value-added products take share, reducing exposure to commodity price swings.
LPX’s disciplined capital allocation — prioritizing high-ROI organic investments, aggressive share repurchases, and dividend growth — demonstrates strong shareholder alignment. With robust competitive moats in supply chain exclusivity, product installation efficiency, and technical sales expertise, LPX is well-insulated from new entrants. The macro backdrop of persistent U.S. housing underbuilding acts as a powerful demand catalyst, likely to overpower short-term interest rate concerns.
A small number of seats at our event of the year, Latticework 2025, will be made available soon to our Substack subscribers. Stay tuned!
Latticework 2025 will be held in New York City on October 7th. In fireside chats with audience participation, the summit will explore intelligent investing in a rapidly changing world. Keynote speakers include:
Chris Bloomstran, President of Semper Augustus Investments Group
Tom Gayner, CEO of Markel and Director of The Coca-Cola Company
Saurabh Madaan, Managing Member of Manveen Asset Management
Bob Robotti, President and CIO of Robotti & Company Advisors
Tom Russo, Managing Member of Gardner Russo & Quinn
Will Thomson, Managing Partner of Massif Capital
Christopher Tsai, President of Tsai Capital Corporation
Ed Wachenheim III, Chairman of Greenhaven Associates
Disclaimer
Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2025 was held from June 24 through July 9, 2025. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.
Slides
Let’s listen to the presentation and Q&A and look over the transcript.
