Adam Crocker of Logbook Investments presented his thesis on Kuehne+Nagel (Switzerland: KNIN) at European Investing Summit 2025.
Thesis summary:
Kuehne+Nagel is a global, asset-light freight forwarder founded in 1890. The company buys wholesale capacity from sea, air, and ground carriers and resells it to shippers, a model Adam likens to a “travel agent for goods.” It also operates a third-party logistics (3PL) division, Contract Logistics, providing outsourced supply chain functions for manufacturers. The business is an essential service, characterized by deep networks, scale, and high returns on capital. It is consistently recognized by Gartner as a “Leader” in the industry, alongside peers like DHL and DSV.
Adam’s thesis posits that Kuehne+Nagel is a high-quality, historically predictable business that is temporarily mispriced due to recent events. Post-COVID macroeconomic volatility disrupted its predictable performance. Furthermore, management “dented credibility” by setting overly ambitious 2026 targets at its 2023 investor day, only to cut them in March 2025. This loss of predictability, a trait highly valued by its investor base, has created an opportunity. Adam argues this is a “reversion to mean valuation story,” as the underlying fundamentals of the business remain intact.
The company is not standing still and is implementing initiatives to drive growth and efficiency. It has restructured its go-to-market strategy, moving from a geographic focus to a matrix based on customer size (global, national, and SME). A key focus is growing its share of the more profitable SME segment, which generates 1.8x the gross profit of non-SME accounts, by leveraging automation and new digital platforms like “eTouch.” The company maintains a high dividend payout, targeting over 80% of earnings. Adam notes this capital allocation policy, which contrasts with DSV’s M&A-focused strategy, is largely driven by the controlling shareholder.
The firm is 55% controlled by Klaus-Michael Kuehne, the founder’s grandson, who no longer holds an active role. His shares are set to be bequeathed to a foundation, which ensures a long-term strategic focus but largely precludes an acquisition. Adam identifies “real risks” as a macro slowdown, competitor consolidation, carriers like Maersk entering freight forwarding, and new tech-based competitors like Flexport. He views “perceived risks,” such as nearshoring (which he sees as a “plus one” strategy) and the recent poor forecasting, as the source of the current opportunity.
Regarding valuation, the shares recently traded at an LTM EV/EBIT of 13x and an EV/EBITDA of 8.2x. This is a discount to the company’s historical 10-year median EV/EBIT multiple of 18x. The investment thesis rests on this multiple re-rating as the business returns to its predictable cadence. The stock also trades at a discount to its closest peer, DSV, which recently traded at 22x EV/EBIT, and at valuations below recent industry M&A transactions. Adam’s base case scenario, which assumes modest 3% revenue growth and a 16x EV/EBIT multiple, implies 32% upside from recent levels.
Disclaimer
European Investing Summit 2025 was held from October 28 to November 3, 2025. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.
