Jeremie Couix of HC Capital Advisors presented his thesis on Hexaom (France: ALHEX) at European Investing Summit 2026.
Thesis summary:
Hexaom, founded in 1919 in Alençon, Normandy, and now run by its fifth generation, is France’s largest builder of single homes, with a market share a bit below 10%. A buy-and-build drive after its 2000 IPO consolidated about 18 regional builders; it now runs 50+ local brands across 12 regions with ~1,400 employees and subcontracts all building work. Revenue peaked near €1.0bn in 2021-23, fell 29% to €728m in 2024, and rose 12.3% to €344m in H1 2026.
Jeremie notes that single homes (€460m 2025 sales, €15m EBITA) carry no land risk and neutral working capital: the buyer’s bank releases stage payments as works progress, while 2,000+ subcontractors are paid with a 70-80 day delay. Working capital averaged about zero in 2007-2018; gross margin averages 18%. Completion-guarantee insurance, held by ever fewer builders, is a soft barrier; the network and cheaper sourcing are the real edge. Promotion (€100m sales, €5m EBITA) controls land through ~5% options and has €174m of backlog.
French new-house sales fell from 140k in 2021 to 51k in 2024 (2006-25 average: 117k); Jeremie expects a structurally lower 100-120k. Hexaom’s rolling 12-month orders are up 25.1% from the trough, though 2026 orders were down 8.6% through August. 2025 orders, up 55% in value, secure ~20% revenue growth and a >5% margin in 2026; 2027 is partly secured, 2028 at risk. Each one-point rate rise cuts buying power by ~10%, yet a median household can still finance a home at 5%.
Some 650 builders have been liquidated since 2023, including Geoxia and AST Groupe, whose gross margins collapsed with 2022 inflation. Hexaom’s held up far better and reached 23.6% in H1 2026, versus a 20.0% average for 2017-2025, while opex, after rising 53% by 2022, now sits below 2017 levels. Management buys selectively (75.5% of HDV; AST’s wood factories for €1m with Trecobat) and prefers organic share gains. Jeremie would like a buyback, which management has said it could consider.
At about €21, the market cap is ~€144m, with €71m of net cash in June 2026. Jeremie expects net cash of €13, equity of €38 and tangible equity of €22 per share by end-2026, and puts 2026 EV/EBITA at 1.2x, FCF yield near 20% and dividend yield at 4-5%. A 10% reverse DCF implies cash flow vanishing after ~€30m a year in 2026-27. BPCE, carrying its stake at €55 per share, is a possible catalyst. Risks: interest rates, French politics and 2028 orders.
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European Investing Summit 2026 was held from October 20-23, 2026. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.
