Roshan Padamadan of Roshan 30 presented his thesis on Grifols (Spain: GRF.P) at European Investing Summit 2026.
Thesis summary:
Grifols is a Barcelona-based leader in plasma-derived therapies, founded in 1909, with FY2025 revenue of €7.5bn and adjusted EBITDA of €1.8bn (24.3% margin). It runs 400+ donation centers, about 280 of them in the US, which supplies ~70% of the world’s plasma. Roshan notes that many countries bar paid donation, so only three or four scaled global players compete, and the donor network itself is the moat.
Biopharma (immunoglobulins, albumin, alpha-1 and specialty proteins) is 88% of revenue and earned a 26.9% EBITDA margin in FY2025; the US and Canada contribute 58%. Immunoglobulin revenue grew 12.8% at constant currency in H1 2026, with SCIG up 17.7%, while CSL Behring’s IG was flat. Albumin fell 14.2% on China pricing. Management guides FY2026 adjusted EBITDA up 5-9% at constant currency at a margin of at least 25%.
The core argument is a possible minority IPO of US Biopharma: selling 15-20% while keeping control could net about €5bn, by Roshan’s estimate, valuing the division near €20bn, more than the group’s enterprise value, so the ex-US business comes for negative value. Supply is the second lever. The Egypt joint venture, opened in 2021, collects ~1m liters in 2026 and targets 3m by 2029, lifting ex-US supply ~2.5x and cutting cost per liter. Alpha-1 SPARTA trial data, due late 2026, adds optionality.
Roshan sees the governance discount as overblown. After the 2024 Gotham City short report on a related-party plasma deal, the regulator took no action and most of the board changed; Mason Capital (3.2%) helped defeat a 2024 take-private near 0.8x book. Free cash flow turned positive at €91m in H1 2026. Credit-agreement leverage fell from 4.6x to 4.2x (5.4x reported), 2027 maturities are refinanced and S&P has raised Grifols two notches to BB-. The target is 3.5x or less by year-end 2027.
On October 7, 2026, Class A traded at €9.95 and the ADR at $7.50; the ~€5.9bn market cap sits against €7.8bn of net debt, making the equity a levered call. Shares trade at ~9.5x EV/adjusted EBITDA and ~13x earnings versus five-year averages of 14.2x and 23.4x. Roshan sees a ~50% re-rating, in line with the €15.01 consensus target, and prefers Class B, ~30% cheaper for a one-cent dividend gap. Risks include a stalled IPO, the suspended Winnipeg license, China albumin and EUR/USD.
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