Stuart Mitchell of S. W. Mitchell Capital presented his thesis on Getlink (France: GET) at European Investing Summit 2026.
Thesis summary:
Getlink, formerly Eurotunnel, was established in 1986 with a concession to build and manage the Channel Tunnel until 2086. LeShuttle leads the Channel crossing with 35% of truck and 56% of car traffic, while Eurostar, which pays Getlink a fee for every passenger, holds 77% of London-Paris and 49% of London-Amsterdam. Stuart calls Getlink a forgotten investment: a relatively small company the sell side barely researches while investors chase AI and other hot areas.
Eurotunnel, including LeShuttle and Eurostar, earned 78% of 2025 EBITDA. Eleclink, a high-voltage cable through the tunnel that lets Britain import French nuclear power when gas prices are high, grew from nothing to 18%; Europorte freight logistics added 4%. With the investment sunk and depreciated, Getlink turned €1,595M of revenue into €347M of free cash flow, a fountain of cash. Yet the tunnel runs 450 trains on peak days against capacity of 1,000, between a half and a third of its longer-term potential.
Freight, hit by Brexit, remains 25% below 2019 levels. Stuart expects it to recover as the Border smart-border system, customs scanners checking rail freight at 20 km/h and a Sanitary and Phytosanitary Agreement cut paperwork. Ferry rivals such as Irish Ferries face a new seafarers’ wage law, emission charges and higher energy costs; Eurotunnel’s truck share rose 160 bps year over year in June 2026. New shuttles running at 160 km/h, against 100-120 km/h today, and new signaling should lift throughput.
Passenger rail is the more tangible driver. Eurostar plans 30% more capacity, Virgin Trains and Trenitalia plan to enter in 2029/2030, and a four-to-five-hour London-Frankfurt/Cologne route in the early 2030s opens a market of 3M airline and 1.7M rail passengers; Geneva, Basel and Zurich routes reach 5M more. Getlink’s chart shows passengers rising from 12M in 2025 to 22M by 2035+; Stuart thinks 30M is possible. Once a capex blip ends in about 18 months, Getlink plans to pay out essentially everything.
H1 2026 EBITDA rose 12% to €404M, and 2026 guidance was upgraded to €835M-€870M. Stuart sees the 4.5% dividend yield as too high for a super-quality asset whose cost of capital should be nearer 6%, implying a doubling in value; his DCFs point to double to triple the share price. He sees total returns of at least 9% a year, nearer 12-13% if more optimistic, and expects an eventual buyout, perhaps by Eiffage. Risks include COVID-type shocks and the guesswork in modeling new routes.
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