Alirio Sendrea of Invexcel presented his thesis on Colonial SFL (Spain: COL) at European Investing Summit 2026.
Thesis summary:
Colonial SFL, long known in Spain as Inmobiliaria Colonial, is a €3.1 billion office REIT with a €12 billion portfolio, 96% of it in city centers: 63% Paris, 23% Madrid, 12% Barcelona. CriteriaCaixa, Qatar Investment Authority, Carlos Fernández González, the Puig family and Corporación Financiera Alba hold about 60% of the equity. Alirio sees rising rates, work-from-home and AI fears behind a bloodbath in European REITs that leaves Colonial at a 49% discount to EPRA NTA.
The moat is scarcity. In Paris, about €260 million of rents at 96% occupancy, Colonial owns five of the nine trophy office assets, and the city has flagged 1.2 million square meters of offices for residential conversion. Madrid (c.€110 million, 94%) and Barcelona (c.€50 million, prime CBD near 100%) see almost no new prime supply. Rental growth has beaten indexation by 350bp on average since 2017, 2022 excepted; AI firms took 30% of Colonial’s Paris take-up over 12 months.
Alirio sees visible, capital-light growth. Ramp-up assets Madnum and Haussmann plus four projects needing just under €200 million of capex, including a hospital fully pre-let to Sanitas and Mapfre, target 6-8% yields on cost and should add €72 million of rent by 2028 and €92 million by 2030, against €400 million in 2025. New fronts include a 51% Berlin JV with Generali at a 4.8% gross initial yield and Deep Labs, a pharma R&D platform targeting over €2.4 billion.
History taught Alirio that leverage is the main risk: in 2008 debt neared €9 billion at over 70% LTV and the shares fell 95%. Management, averaging 20+ years’ tenure, has since cut LTV to 37% and lifted recurring EPS from 11.6 to 33.6 cents (2015-2025). Net debt is 13.6x EBITDA, seen falling to 10-12x, with all debt fixed or hedged at 1.9%. A €700 million disposal program at ~4% yields, 60% secured, funds reinvestment at 6%+ yields on cost.
At €5.04, Colonial trades near half of NAV. Alirio lifts appraisal yields to about 6%, versus a market-implied 7% and 4-5% on private prime deals, for an NTA-based target of €7.6 per share. FFO per share rising from 33.6 cents (2025) to 42 cents (2030), at 17x, gives €7.2. He sees 47% upside, a 32% margin of safety and an 8% five-year IRR plus a 6.3% dividend yield. Risks include higher rates, REIT-regime politics, new Madrid supply after 2035, AI and leverage.
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European Investing Summit 2026 was held from October 20-23, 2026. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.
