Chris Crawford of Crawford Fund Management presented his investment thesis on Boston Beer Company (NYSE: SAM) at Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2025.
Thesis Summary
Boston Beer Company is the largest American-owned alcoholic beverage company, holding leading positions across several niche segments including craft beer, hard cider, flavored malt beverages, and hard seltzers. After enduring significant headwinds following the burst of the hard seltzer bubble in recent years, Boston Beer now presents compelling turnaround potential. The company’s founder-led management team has demonstrated a long history of effective innovation and successful operational recoveries, positioning the firm well to capitalize on emerging growth drivers.
Recent product launches, notably Sun Cruiser and Sam’s American Light, have shown promising early traction. Sun Cruiser, positioned against High Noon in the vodka tea segment, has successfully doubled its market share since its initial launch. Sam’s American Light, launched nationwide in 2025, is strategically aimed at the massive mainstream light beer segment, potentially extending brand equity beyond traditional craft beer boundaries. Although the growth potential of another product, Hard Mountain Dew (a collaboration with Pepsi), is less certain, these new product introductions significantly enhance the company’s growth profile.
Boston Beer’s competitive advantages are underpinned by robust brand recognition, a resilient nationwide distribution network, regulatory barriers to entry, and significant economies of scale. Despite these strengths, periodic market disruptions — such as the craft beer and hard seltzer downturns — have historically impacted its trajectory. Nevertheless, these disruptions have been followed consistently by recoveries and renewed growth, demonstrating the company’s resilience and adaptability.
Financially, Boston Beer maintains a debt-free balance sheet, allowing significant flexibility for internal investments and opportunistic repurchases of undervalued shares. Management’s disciplined share repurchase strategy, buying back stock at substantial discounts to intrinsic value, further underpins shareholder value creation. Founder Jim Koch, who owns 20% of the company, remains actively involved and deeply committed to long-term strategic growth, underscoring a strong alignment of interests with shareholders.
Recently, Boston Beer shares traded significantly below intrinsic value estimates, down approximately 85% from their 2021 highs. Chris’s valuation suggests substantial upside potential, assigning a blended appraisal value of $302 per share, reflecting a 60% base case scenario. Given the embedded optionality of Boston Beer’s innovative R&D pipeline, robust balance sheet, and historical valuation ranges, upside scenarios could be considerably higher, positioning the company as both an undervalued turnaround story and a potential acquisition target.
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Latticework 2025 will be held in New York City on October 7th. In fireside chats with audience participation, the summit will explore intelligent investing in a rapidly changing world. Keynote speakers include:
Chris Bloomstran, President of Semper Augustus Investments Group
Tom Gayner, CEO of Markel and Director of The Coca-Cola Company
Saurabh Madaan, Managing Member of Manveen Asset Management
Scott Miller, Founder of Greenhaven Road Capital
Bob Robotti, President and CIO of Robotti & Company Advisors
Tom Russo, Managing Member of Gardner Russo & Quinn
Will Thomson, Managing Partner of Massif Capital
Christopher Tsai, President of Tsai Capital Corporation
Ed Wachenheim III, Chairman of Greenhaven Associates
Disclaimer
Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2025 was held from June 24 through July 9, 2025. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.
Slides
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