David Autin, a Paris-based private investor, presented his thesis on Asmodee Group (Sweden: ASMDEE B) at European Investing Summit 2026.
Thesis summary:
Asmodee publishes its own tabletop games, such as Catan, Ticket to Ride and Exploding Kittens, and distributes third-party titles including the Pokémon and Magic: The Gathering trading card games. Born in 1995 near Paris, it lists in Stockholm by accident of history: Embracer bought it in late 2021 for close to €3 billion, froze its M&A and diverted its cash, then spun it off in early 2025. David calls it the toll road of a growing tabletop industry.
David sees the moat in distribution. Ranked #1 in France and the UK, #2 in Germany and #3 in the US, Asmodee owns the route to market that publishers like Hasbro and Mattel rent: 27 countries, ~62% of staff in distribution, 4,000+ active references and near next-day delivery to hobby stores. A rival would need about a decade to replicate it. Sales split roughly evenly across hobby, mass and online, and the top 10 customers are under 25%.
The €14 billion market roughly doubled over a decade and did not contract in 2022. A €30 game nets Asmodee about €9 a unit, so ~17,000 units cover a ~€150,000 development cost, well under a ~30,000 first print run. Trading card games, now 61% of sales, rose 94% from €526 million in FY22/23 to €1,020 million in FY25/26, fed by four to five booster sets a year, separate communities, a deep secondary market and digital on-ramps.
Distributed TCGs trim gross margin, yet David expects adjusted EBITDA margin to rise from 17.0% toward 18.2% on scale. Capex of 2-3% of sales and leverage near 1.3x leave €170-200 million of annual free cash flow to deploy. M&A, frozen under Embracer, restarted with five deals in FY25/26, buying studios Asmodee already distributes: ATM Gaming cost €180 million at 7.2x EV/EBITDA for a 10-14% post-tax ROIC. Chairman Lars Wingefors holds about 17% of capital and 38% of votes.
At SEK 174, the shares trade near 12x forward EV/EBITDA with a roughly 5% free cash flow yield, beside Hasbro (11x), above Mattel (7.5x) and well below Games Workshop (17x). David’s base case of steady like-for-like growth, a margin above 18% and a 12-13x exit multiple yields SEK 204, or 17% upside; the bull case reaches SEK 298 (+71%). The bear case, SEK 90 (48% downside), reflects a hard TCG rollover or the loss of Pokémon, an estimated 20-25% of sales.
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European Investing Summit 2026 was held from October 20-23, 2026. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.
