Jean Pierre Verster of Protea Capital Management presented his investment thesis on TBC Bank Group (UK: TBCG) at Best Ideas 2026.
Thesis summary:
TBC Bank Group is a holding company operating two distinct banking entities in the Caucasus and Central Asia. TBC Bank Georgia, a universal bank, generates approximately 90% of group profits and holds a 40% market share in a stable duopolistic market. The remaining 10% of profits stem from TBC Uzbekistan, a high-growth digital venture mirroring the “super-app” strategy of fintech players like Kaspi. While the Georgian operation provides a foundation of stability, the expansion into Uzbekistan offers exposure to a market with ten times the population of Georgia and low banking penetration.
The Georgian operation anchors the thesis with consistent returns, having compounded earnings while maintaining long-term ROEs above 20%. Established in 1992, the bank has transitioned from a traditional physical network to a strong digital offering. Despite being situated in a region with perceived geopolitical friction—bordering Russia and occupied territories—the currency has remained relatively flat against the British Pound over the last decade, and the economy has benefited from recent migration inflows. The high level of dollarization in the Georgian economy is being actively managed through central bank “larization” initiatives to decrease foreign exchange risk.
Jean Pierre highlights Uzbekistan as the primary growth engine, leveraging a population of nearly 40 million to deploy a fintech-enabled strategy. Through acquisitions of payment provider Payme and e-classifieds platform OLX, TBC is building an ecosystem to capture a young, digitally savvy demographic. While this segment has delivered rapid loan growth, recent regulatory interventions aimed at curbing unsecured lending and a tick-up in NPLs suggest a near-term moderation in expansion rates. Consequently, the bank is pivoting toward secured and SME lending to de-risk the Uzbek book over the coming years.
Governance and capital allocation are anchored by a management team led by a CEO who has served since 1995. The group maintains a dividend payout ratio between 35% and 40%, supplementing shareholder returns with share buybacks when excess capital is available. Although the founder’s recent legal issues and subsequent pardon present a headline risk, the operational leadership has continued to deliver efficiency improvements, driving the cost-to-income ratio down to approximately 38%.
Regarding valuation, Jean Pierre argues the market misprices the gap between the company’s fundamental performance and its share price. The stock recently traded at a P/E of roughly 6x and a trailing tangible P/B of 1.3x, despite consistent ROEs exceeding 20% and healthy capital adequacy. Jean Pierre suggests a fair multiple would be closer to 2x tangible book value. A narrowing of this valuation gap, combined with earnings growth and a ~6% dividend yield, could support a 25% CAGR, potentially doubling the share price to around £80 by 2029.
Disclaimer
Best Ideas 2026 was held from January 6-23, 2026. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.
Slides
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