Daniel Gladiš of Vltava Fund presented his investment thesis on Marex Group (US: MRX) at European Investing Summit 2025.
Thesis Summary
Marex is a UK-based global financial services platform providing essential market access, liquidity, and infrastructure for institutional clients in the energy, commodity, and financial markets. The company operates four interconnected segments: Clearing Services, Agency & Execution, Market Making, and Hedging & Investment Solutions. Marex serves ~5,000 active clients and is positioned as a key provider for medium-sized funds, occupying a niche underserved by the largest banks (who require high commission minimums) and smaller independents (who lack global coverage).
The investment thesis rests on high barriers to entry and a favorable, consolidating competitive landscape. It took Marex nearly a decade from its founding to build its initial, small business, highlighting the difficulty of scaling in this space. Competitive intensity has declined, with the number of Futures Commission Merchants (FCMs) falling by about 50% since 2002 while client assets have grown. This consolidation has allowed Marex to become a top-10 FCM in the U.S. by client assets. Unlike most peers, Marex and its closest competitor, StoneX, are among the few players offering a comprehensive suite across all four service segments .
Marex benefits from long-term secular trends, including the increasing demand for cleared products and derivatives and the general expansion of financial and commodity markets. Near-term business drivers include higher interest rates and market volatility, making the stock an effective bet on future volatility. Growth is achieved through a combination of organic initiatives and a disciplined M&A strategy, with a target 60/40 organic/inorganic mix. Transformative acquisitions like ED&F Man and the TD Cowen prime brokerage business have expanded its customer base and service offering, driving strong client growth; clients generating >$1M in revenue grew at a 54% CAGR from 2021-2024 .
The company has a 10-year track record of strong profit growth through varied market conditions, growing Adjusted PBT from $16 million in 2014 to $321 million in 2024. The business is also becoming more stable; while average monthly PBT has grown, its standard deviation has not grown proportionally, making earnings more predictable. The balance sheet appears highly leveraged, but ~80% of assets are driven by client activity and net out, leaving a modest residual balance sheet. Marex maintains an investment grade rating and strong regulatory capital ratios (2.42x the requirement). FCF conversion is high, in the mid-90% range.
The opportunity exists because Marex is a UK-based, financial small-cap ($2.2 billion market cap) with a short public history, making it ignored by passive strategies and difficult for outsiders to assess. A recent short report, viewed by the presenter as a “non-issue”, has also applied pressure to the stock. Based on UBS projections, the shares recently traded around $30, or approximately 7.7x 2025E earnings. These consensus estimates forecast ~10% annual EPS growth based only on organic expansion, and crucially, they do not include any contribution from future M&A . This omission suggests current earnings projections may underestimate the company’s true growth potential.
Disclaimer
European Investing Summit 2025 was held from October 28 to November 3, 2025. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.
Slides
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