Mosaic mines potash at three sites in Saskatchewan and phosphate rock in Florida, and it makes about 72% of North America’s concentrated phosphates. In 2025 its potash segment earned $1,183m of adjusted EBITDA, Mosaic’s non-GAAP measure, and left about $930m after capital spending and closure cash, while its phosphate segment used about $207m. In Q2 2026 (April to June 2026) Mosaic sold DAP at $773 a tonne, its best realized price since 2022, and its phosphate segment made a gross loss on each tonne it sold: the sulfur in its cost of goods sold had risen from $126 a long ton in Q3 2024 to $522, and its plants ran at 58% of capacity, after acid production at three of the four averaged about 80% in Q1 2026. The refinancing of August and September left no bond due before 2029; net debt was $5.56bn at June 30, 2026, the highest on record.
This is the third issue of Latticework Business Intelligence, the series of in-depth coverage initiations from Latticework by MOI Global, and it covers The Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS), formed in 2004 from IMC Global and Cargill’s fertilizer business. As with Nike and Lennar, we are releasing the whole package at once so that each reader can choose where to start: the report, the Excel model, our transcripts of twelve Mosaic earnings calls, a companion slide deck, and two podcast episodes, the first on the story and the second a deep dive for investors. The companion deck and the first episode are free; the report, the model, the transcripts and the second episode are for members. We welcome your feedback on all of it.
This initiation builds on our Industry Primer on Fertilizers.
Scroll down for the free-to-read summary slide deck on Mosaic.
Initiating coverage on Mosaic
We initiate coverage of The Mosaic Company’s common stock (MOS) at Long-Term Overweight against the S&P 500 over three to five years.
Mosaic owns two sets of deposits a rival cannot replace at today’s prices, and it has the balance sheet to keep them. Potash earns the cash through this downturn; the recovery depends on the phosphate plants. At a fixed 10% required return we value a Mosaic share at $19.61 to $32.87, with a median of $26.13, against a reference price of $17.68 as of October 21, 2026. At the base margin and at 10%, the operating business is worth well more than its debt and other claims.
The question is whether Mosaic has the staying power to come through this downcycle with its cost position and balance sheet intact, and what its three businesses earn over the next three to five years. Adjusted EBITDA fell from $6.22bn in 2022 to $2.42bn in 2025, and the first half of 2026 brought $823m, against $1,110m a year earlier. The gross margin of that half, 7.7% of net sales, was the lowest in the record since fiscal 2005. We judge that Mosaic can meet its cash calls for two years and arguably three from its balance sheet and its potash, as a seller of non-core assets and, from late 2027, of Ma’aden shares rather than a buyer.