Barratt Redrow: A “Stupidly Cheap” Stock Just Got 40% Cheaper
Simon Caufield's excellent October 2025 thesis has become even more compelling, setting up an exceptional risk-reward.
One of my favorite sessions at European Investing Summit 2025 was Simon Caufield’s presentation on Barratt Redrow (UK: BTRW) on October 28. Simon argued that the UK’s largest homebuilder was “crazily undervalued,” trading at roughly 47% of his estimate of “liquidation value.” He titled the talk after Mark Twain’s line about the trouble being “what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” According to Simon, the misperception was not in the affordability statistics or the volume data the market was watching. It was in failing to understand how UK homebuilders behave during a downturn.
I left that session impressed and did not anticipate what would come next. In the six months since, Barratt Redrow shares have fallen close to another 40%, from roughly 400p at the time of Simon’s session to about 250p today. The market cap has compressed from £5.7 billion to about £3.6 billion. The shares are now trading at a 13-year low, and over the past three months Barratt Redrow has been the single worst performer on the entire FTSE 100.
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When a stock that was already “stupidly cheap” gets cheaper by another ~40%, on a thesis that has, if anything, been confirmed by recent operating results, I find it worth revisiting. What follows is a refresher of Simon’s thesis for readers who did not see the original presentation, an update incorporating the financial results reported between late October 2025 and today, and an updated valuation exercise using his framework.