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This is the eighteenth issue of This Week in Special Situations, our curated survey of actionable ideas. We do not attempt to profile every special situation. The universe of activist campaigns, buybacks, insider purchases, strategic reviews, and merger arbitrage spreads is vast, and most of it is noise. We filter for situations with a misaligned price or a noteworthy structural reason for market inefficiency.
Over time we will likely narrow this list further. That is where you come in. Please tell us which situations added value to your process and, just as importantly, which were of no consequence. Brutally honest feedback is the most valuable input we can receive. It will shape what we keep and what we cut. Our goal is to make this survey progressively more useful to you.
This week’s report (available as a slide deck) profiles 34 situations across four buckets: activist campaigns, capital return and insider conviction, M&A, and strategic alternatives. Below we highlight the handful that stand out on catalyst clarity, valuation, and asymmetry, followed by thesis summaries covering a broad cross-section of the report.
This publication is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The information is based on publicly available data and regulatory filings. Errors are not only possible but likely. Readers should conduct their own research.
The Situations That Stand Out
Solstice Advanced Materials (US: SOLS) has Starboard Value arguing that Nuclear and three smaller units are worth ~$7.6B of the ~$11B enterprise value it calculated on October 16, which by its math leaves the rest, mostly refrigerants, at 4.3x 2027E EBITDA. Starboard CEO Jeff Smith unveiled the position on October 20, nearly eight weeks after Solstice and Element Solutions called off their merger and the board authorized a $500M buyback, about 5% of the market cap. Starboard values Nuclear, owner of the only US uranium conversion plant, at ~$3.9B and three other units at ~$3.7B, and it wants at least $100M of overhead cut, about 20% of SG&A. The stake size is undisclosed and no 13D is on file, though the FT puts Starboard among the top ten holders; nominations for the 2027 meeting run January 22 to February 21.
Albertsons Companies (US: ACI) had buyback authority at September 12 worth 27% of its ~$6.3B market cap, trades at about 4x EV/adjusted EBITDA with a 5% dividend yield, and three executives, CEO Susan Morris among them, bought ~$2.5M of stock near $11.50 in late July. Albertsons has repurchased 26M shares this fiscal year, ~12.6M of them at an average ~$12.70 in the 12 weeks to September 12, and the diluted count is down 13% year on year. On October 13 management launched a comprehensive review of banners, markets, assets and capital allocation and withdrew its fiscal 2026 outlook. Funding is the constraint: 28-week FCF of ~$310M covered just over half of dividends and buybacks, the ABL balance nearly doubled since February to ~$830M, and net debt runs 2.4x adjusted EBITDA. Cerberus’s last reported ~152M shares equal 32% of today’s count.
Brockhaus Technologies (Germany: BKHT) trades at ~€17, 18% below roughly €20 a share of pro forma net cash after minorities, having retired 34% of its shares at €25.00, and the board still has about €90M of a ~€180M capital return goal to deliver. The 2.2x-oversubscribed tender bought ~3.6M shares for ~€90M, and their cancellation on October 19 left a ~€114M market cap. Pro forma net cash is ~€153M, or ~€140M net of ~€13M of June 30 minority interests, and the stock trades at 0.6x pro forma book of ~€29 a share. The August AGM approved moving ~€183M into free reserves, which the company says leaves room for acquisitions and possible further capital returns in 2027. The remaining business, IHSE plus the holding, guides to roughly breakeven adjusted EBITDA on €30-32M of revenue, and the CEO’s team holds about 24%.
General Motors (US: GM) authorized a new $20B buyback, about 31% of its ~$64B market cap, after raising 2026 adjusted automotive FCF guidance to $11.5-12.5B, a roughly 19% yield at the midpoint, and an 8% two-session drop leaves the stock at under 6x the midpoint of adjusted EPS guidance. The authorization has no expiration date and came with third-quarter results after GM used up its prior $6.3B program. GM bought back 65M shares for ~$5.3B in the first nine months, ~30M of them in the third quarter at ~$85, so new purchases run ~11% below that cost. Adjusted EPS guidance is $12.75-13.75, and automotive cash and securities of ~$23B exceed ~$16B of automotive debt. Insiders are sellers: CEO Mary Barra sold ~1.0M shares for ~$87M between May and July, and no Form 4 in six months shows an open-market purchase.
FMC (US: FMC) trades at ~$5, 62% below the $13.30 a share Tessenderlo paid four weeks ago to reach 20% of the company, and Tessenderlo CEO Luc Tack joined the board on October 21, with the Belgian group’s standstill falling away if FMC signs a change-of-control deal. On October 15 FMC cut third-quarter revenue guidance to $65-125M from $840-900M and guided to an adjusted EBITDA loss of $510-565M, absorbing $625-675M of charges to cut prices on channel-held product in the Americas; the stock fell 30% that day. Pro forma net debt is ~$3.4B against a ~$780M market cap, the leverage covenant is capped at 6.75x through 2027, and FMC plans to discuss further covenant changes with its banks over the next year. Tessenderlo is locked up until September 2029 and votes with the board except on change-of-control matters.
Quick Thesis Summaries
Other timely situations profiled in this week’s report include:
Big Yellow Group (UK: BYG) — Ancora, which holds 4+%, and Irenic, put at ~4% by the FT, are pressing Big Yellow to sell itself at 31% below EPRA NTA. The board, which turned Blackstone away as too low last December, now says it continually evaluates all options.
BlackRock TCP Capital (US: TCPC) — Saba Capital has taken 5.11% of this BDC and put liquidation timing on the table, with the stock 31% below pro forma NAV of $5.90 and a 17% dividend yield. A ~$520M loan sale cut leverage to about 0.4x, and KBW is weighing options up to an orderly realization of the assets.
Hilltop Holdings (US: HTH) — Former chairman Gerald Ford, a 27% holder, is pressing the board to take the chair from his son, CEO Jeremy Ford, and may seek board or management changes. The bank holding company trades just under 1.0x book with an 18% CET1 ratio.
MDA Space (US: MDA) — Czechoslovak Group paid ~C$660M for 9.5% of MDA Space to become its largest holder, under a 13D that reserves talks with potential acquirers and proposals up to a sale of the company. The stock sits 5% below CSG’s cost and 19% below July’s $35.60 equity offering.
Strata Critical Medical (US: SRTA) — Third Point has switched to a 13D and wants a banker-run sale, with the stock below Dan Loeb’s $4.77 average cost at 12x guided 2026 adjusted EBITDA. Cash and Joby receivables of ~$64M sit against a ~$420M market cap.
Vail Resorts (US: MTN) — Oasis Management has 9.6% and four board nominees, former Disney CEO Robert Chapek among them, after Vail’s lenders dropped the board-turnover change-of-control trigger on October 16. The stock trades at 10x the midpoint of fiscal 2027 EBITDA guidance after a 50% five-year shareholder loss.
Xponential Fitness (US: XPOF) — Fund 1 Investments lifted its exposure to 19.86% with swaps added after the October 12 poison pill and backs a Jefferies-run sale review. The franchisor trades at 7.4x trailing adjusted EBITDA, with the stock 31% below the fund’s $6.20 average share cost.
Yamada Holdings (Japan: 9831) — The Murakami group lifted its stake to just over 9% of issued shares, about 14% ex-treasury and above the founder’s holding company, and says it may add more than 5 points within three months. Its agenda includes buybacks, asset sales and an MBO, while the EDION merger share ratio stays open until mid-2027.
Ellington Credit Company (US: EARN) — A new $20M buyback authorization covers about 14% of the market cap at a 13% discount to estimated NAV. Spending it in full at the $3.50 close would add about 2% to NAV per share.
High Templar Tech (US: HTT) — The former Qudian trades at ~$2, 37% below the $3.20 it paid for 40M ADSs in June, with ~$970M of net cash, roughly $8.40 a share, against a ~$230M market cap. About $92M of buyback authorization, 39% of the cap, remains unspent.
Host Digital (US: HOST) — A $15M buyback covers 11% of the ~$140M market cap, with the stock 64% below September’s $8.00 offering. Against it sits a signed 15-year take-or-pay lease at its Oklahoma Site I that starts at $67M of year-one rent and totals $1.25B.
Las Vegas Sands (US: LVS) — Las Vegas Sands bought back $950M of stock in the third quarter at ~$45 and still has ~$5.1B authorized, 22% of its market cap. It raised the 2027 dividend 20% to $1.44, a nearly 4% yield, with the stock 17% below what the company just paid.
MAAS Group Holdings (Australia: MGH) — After closing the A$1.7B sale of its construction materials arm to Heidelberg, MAAS bought back about 2% of its shares in the first four sessions of a ~70M-share program. It still has ~62M shares, ~A$240M or 19.7% of its market cap, left to buy.
NSI (Netherlands: NSI) — NSI is retiring up to 5% of its shares at 0.54x EPRA NTA, and its 29.98% holder First Sponsor Group sells pro rata alongside to stay below 30%, so the float shrinks without handing it control. The stock yields about 9% and trades at 9.4x the low end of 2026 EPRA EPS guidance.
Pegasystems (US: PEGA) — Pegasystems still has ~$810M of buyback authority, 14% of its market cap, and the stock trades 12% below the ~$40 average it paid for ~11M shares this year. Its enterprise value is about 12x trailing FCF.
Reliance, Inc. (US: RS) — Reliance raised its open-ended buyback authorization to $2.5B, 12% of its ~$22B market cap, after record third-quarter sales of ~$5.2B lifted non-GAAP EPS 120% to $8.02. Net debt sits at 0.8x EBITDA.
S-1 (Korea: 012750) — S-1 is spending KRW 450B, 14% of its market cap and about half its cash and short-term deposits, to buy about 13% of its shares at KRW 99,000, 2% above the close. Cancelling them along with its treasury stock cuts the issued count 23%.
SEI Investments (US: SEIC) — SEI added $800M to its buyback, lifting capacity to ~$930M, 7% of its ~$13B market cap, after a quarter in which adjusted EPS rose 24% and it retired 2M shares at ~$105.
SNDL (US: SNDL) — SNDL’s board has directed management to pursue a substantial issuer bid of up to C$50M, 11% of its market cap, at up to C$1.92 a share, 7% above the close. The stock trades at 0.51x tangible book with no borrowings.
Vistance Networks (US: VISN) — Vistance pays a $1.50 special distribution on November 6, about a quarter of its $6.11 share price, leaving a $4.61 stub for a debt-free Aurora Networks business guided to $200-225M of 2026 adjusted EBITDA. Buyback authority of $250M equals 18% of the market cap.
Ingenia Communities Group (Australia: INA) — Warburg Pincus now has comprehensive due diligence access on its best-and-final A$5.25 cash proposal, 14.6% above the October 21 close, and both sides are seeking to sign a process deed by October 23.
Mobico Group (UK: MCG) — The 26% holder CMC Group has teamed with Asterion on a 46p cash proposal the independent directors are minded to recommend, 17% above the 39p close, with a firm offer due by November 18.
ShaMaran Petroleum (Norway: SNM) — Gulf Keystone’s fixed-ratio share merger values ShaMaran 19% above its Oslo close, or 9% after stripping GKP’s $50M special dividend, with the Lundin family’s 26% stake backing the deal and votes due around December 22.
Steyr Motors (Germany: 4X0) — Red Cat’s €39.00 all-cash tender, backed by a signed business combination agreement and B&C Holding’s commitment to tender its ~15%, sits 9.6% above the ~€36 close, about 14% annualized to the June 30, 2027 clearance target.
Aegon (US: AEG) — Aegon’s largest shareholder swapped its Common Shares B for ordinary stock on October 15, ending its 33% Special Cause vote and clearing the way to a 2028 Delaware redomiciliation and NYSE primary listing. The stock trades at 0.8x valuation equity with a nearly 6% trailing dividend yield.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (US: ARI) — A buyer at $6.34 collects the $4.10 liquidating distribution on October 29 and keeps a $2.24 stub against $3.65-4.40 per fully diluted share of further estimated payouts, 63-96% above the stub.
International Paper (US: IP) — IP is in talks with bidders for its EMEA Packaging business, the former DS Smith, alongside a London spin-off, opening a possible cash exit from a unit that posted a $131M segment operating loss in the first half. Third-quarter results come October 28 and the unit’s capital markets day November 3.
Myriad Genetics (US: MYGN) — Myriad is selling its Prenatal Health unit to Labcorp for $210M in cash, 39% of its ~$530M market cap, which would turn its June balance sheet to ~$200M of net cash. That leaves the cancer and mental-health lines at ~$330M of EV against ~$310M of first-half revenue.
Reliance Industries (India: RELIANCE) — Jio Platforms’ all-primary IPO values Reliance’s 64% post-issue stake at up to ₹6.6T, 41% of Reliance’s ~₹16T market cap, without Reliance selling a share. The new shares are due to start trading on or about October 28.
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