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This is the thirteenth issue of This Week in Special Situations, our curated survey of actionable ideas. We do not attempt to profile every special situation. The universe of activist campaigns, buybacks, insider purchases, strategic reviews, and merger arbitrage spreads is vast, and most of it is noise. We filter for situations with a misaligned price or a noteworthy structural reason for market inefficiency.
Over time we will likely narrow this list further. That is where you come in. Please tell us which situations added value to your process and, just as importantly, which were of no consequence. Brutally honest feedback is the most valuable input we can receive. It will shape what we keep and what we cut. Our goal is to make this survey progressively more useful to you.
This week’s report (available as a slide deck) profiles 27 situations across four buckets: activist campaigns, capital return and insider conviction, M&A, and strategic alternatives. Below we highlight the handful that stand out on catalyst clarity, valuation, and asymmetry, followed by thesis summaries covering a broad cross-section of the report.
This publication is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The information is based on publicly available data and regulatory filings. Errors are not only possible but likely. Readers should conduct their own research.
The Situations That Stand Out
Signet Jewelers (US: SIG) has authorized repurchases equal to ~18% of its market value, holds about $530M of cash against no funded debt, and trades at ~9.1x the midpoint of raised FY27 EPS guidance. The board lifted the remaining authorization to $700M on September 9 and will enter a $125M accelerated share repurchase this month, leaving $575M behind it, though the stock at ~$102 sits well above the ~$85 average paid in the quarter ended August 1. FY27 adjusted EPS guidance rose to $10.45 to $12.15 and adjusted EBITDA guidance to $730M to $800M, putting the enterprise at roughly 4.4x EBITDA net of cash. An early Bread Financial renewal through December 2035 brings $80M of cash this quarter, so the repurchase is covered from cash on hand while the balance of the authorization depends on FY27 FCF.
Lands’ End (US: LE) had $89.2M left on its repurchase authorization at July 31, roughly 28% of its market value, and is buying back at ~0.64x book value. The company retired 910,253 shares at an average of $11.60 in the quarter ended July 31 and kept buying into August, taking the count from 30.0M to 29.5M by September 1. The April 1 sale of a 50% controlling stake in a new Lands’ End brand JV to WHP Global brought in $300M, repaid the $234M term loan, and cut quarterly interest expense from $9.3M a year earlier to $1.0M. The same agreement obliges the company to pay the JV a guaranteed minimum royalty of $50M a year, and with first-half operating cash flow at negative $86.5M, near-term repurchases draw on the ABL.
First REIT of New Jersey (US: FREVS) is one shareholder vote away from liquidating a fourteen-property northern New Jersey and New York portfolio at a management-estimated $24 to $30 per share, as compared to a $22 stock. The August proxy puts the plan to a September 29 special meeting, with a midpoint NAV of about $27 built from roughly $340M of gross asset value, less about $120M of mortgage debt and $20M of liquidation expenses, and JLL opined in May that the range is reasonable. The vote, not the real estate, is the risk: approval needs a majority of the roughly 7.5M shares outstanding, abstentions and broker non-votes count against, and 25% of the register sat in broker non-votes at the August annual meeting, against directors and officers holding 21% who intend to vote in favor.
Medipal Holdings (Japan: 7459) trades at 0.9x book value, and its largest shareholder is using the Companies Act to force shareholder-friendly action. At March 31 it held ¥289B of cash and ¥212B of investment securities against ¥5B of debt, before bank loans funded the ~¥192B PALTAC buy-in in July. Silchester, a 12% holder since 2021, filed an Article 297 demand on September 2 for an EGM by October 30: dismiss director Shuichi Watanabe, let shareholders vote on dividends, pay a ¥122 special dividend, and repurchase up to ¥95B, about 16.5% of the shares. Watanabe drew 61% support in June against 74% to 92% for the others. On September 8 the board named Kuniaki Imagawa president effective October 1 and moved Watanabe to chairman, leaving the dismissal vote and the ¥120B ask live.
Pacific Current Group (Australia: PAC) trades at A$11.10 per share, as compared to the board’s fair-value NAV of A$16.18 per share. On September 7 the board disclosed it had rejected Roc Partners’ cash-and-scrip approach, received in May, because the cash leg came largely from PAC’s own balance sheet; no revised all-cash bid has followed. PAC in turn owns about 30% of Roc, carried at A$60.1M. Flagstaff Partners is advising on three paths: buying Australian manager River Capital for about A$80M in roughly 6.3M escrowed shares at A$13.00, an outright sale, or a delisting and orderly realization. The River deal requires River’s funds to sell their whole ~10M-share stake, about 36% of the register, into a bookbuild first, and approval from shareholders other than River.
Quick Thesis Summaries
The balance of this week’s report, in brief.
Kobayashi Pharmaceutical (Japan: 4967) — Oasis has lifted its stake to 14% at an average cost of ¥5,472 against a ¥5,700 price, told regulators it intends to add more than five points within three months, and reserved the right to seek the representative director’s removal, a delisting, or a sale of control against a family bloc holding roughly 21%.
Air Liquide (France: AI) — Elliott holds an undisclosed stake below the 5% AMF disclosure threshold and is pressing a nine-point operating-margin gap to Linde, roughly 21% against 30%, ahead of an October 5 Capital Markets Day at which management must present a new medium-term plan, with the shares back below their pre-report level.
Xerox (US: XRX) — Starteepo has built a 7% stake at ~$2.40 a share and wants a board-led review of Xerox Financial Services, which it values at $1.3-1.5B, or about $7.70 per share, against a ~$3.17 per-share leveraged equity stub.
Byrna Technologies (US: BYRN) — Founder and 9.6% holder Bryan Ganz won one of the two board seats he sought, leaving the September 25 annual meeting uncontested, with the stock at $3.63 against a $30.62 52-week high after fiscal Q2 revenue fell 43% to $16M and with inventory alone equal to 36% of the market value.
QVC Group (US: QVCG) — GoldenTree has taken its post-emergence stake to 19%, buying 830K shares at about $16.30 in the four weeks to September 3, and holds one of eight board seats alongside Oaktree, Silver Point and Strategic Value Partners, with roughly $870M of equity sitting beneath $1.24B of 10% first-lien takeback notes.
Air Canada (Canada: AC) — A C$800M modified Dutch auction at C$29.00 to C$33.00 expires September 24 with the stock at C$28.25, below the floor, so a full take-up at C$29.00 with proration is the base case and the odd-lot exemption the only clean arbitrage, funded by the C$2.5B sale of a quarter of Aeroplan.
Telephone and Data Systems (US: TDS) — Having withdrawn its exchange offer for the 18% of Array Digital Infrastructure it does not own, TDS turns back to a repurchase pool of roughly $520M, about 12% of its market value, on a stock whose listed Array stake alone covers roughly 62% of that value.
GDEV (US: GDEV) — A $20M self-tender at $11.03 for 10% of the shares sits below market, and with the founder and the Bukhman brothers’ vehicle (~78% of the company), declining to participate, a full take-up would absorb roughly half of every other holder’s stock.
Liberty Latin America (US: LILA) — Director Alfonso de Angoitia paid about $10M for 9% preference shares at a blended $20.96, roughly 16% below their $25 liquidation preference and an 11% yield, while John Malone kept buying the common near $8.50 and added to a preference position now worth $94M at liquidation value.
United Therapeutics (US: UTHR) — The final ~$480M of a $2B authorization goes into an accelerated repurchase, exhausting the program six months after approval and leaving roughly $3.8B of cash and investments against no debt, with the stock left to trade on 2027 FDA decisions for Tyvaso in IPF and ralinepag.
Oddity Tech (US: ODD) — The company has retired 20% of its shares this year at an average of $13.93 and repurchased $50M face of its 2030 exchangeable notes for $35M, leaving $87M of authorization against a stock that jumped 29% on results even as Q2 revenue fell 25% on the IL MAKIAGE advertising dislocation.
Public Financial Holdings (HK: 0626) — Public Bank Berhad’s final HK$2.50 scheme for the 27% it does not own leaves a 14% spread at HK$2.20, roughly 35% annualized on a four-to-five-month completion, but the 10% disinterested-vote blocking threshold means about HK$73M of stock can defeat a deal priced at 0.35x book.
Gabia (Korea: 079940) — Macquarie’s tender at KRW 48,000 leaves a 13% spread with eight days to the September 17 expiry. The trade depends on the ~3.3M-share minimum, which needs roughly three-quarters of the stock held outside Align’s 14% and Miri Capital’s 24%.
Dominion Energy (US: D) — Shareholders approved the NextEra merger on September 3 with better than 98% of votes cast in favor, leaving a 4% gross spread on a package worth about $68.63 against a $66.22 stock, with the outcome now resting on a Virginia SCC decision due by January 11, 2027 and a close guided to the second half of 2027.
MarketAxess (US: MKTX) — ICE’s $167.00 cash offer trades at a 2% gross spread with the HSR waiting period expiring September 25 and completion guided to the first half of 2027, a regulatory carry backed by a reverse termination fee of about $330M.
WaFd (US: WAFD) — The reverse merger with EverBank leaves WaFd holders 40.8% of a $75B-asset bank guided to 2027 EPS of $4.34 against a $3.37 standalone consensus, at the cost of a 59% sponsor bloc whose shares unlock over twelve months after a 1Q27 close.
UWM Holdings (US: UWMC) — A $400M rights offering carries a $2.00 subscription floor some 44% above the $1.39 stock, so unless the shares rally before the pricing window closes on November 9, Oaktree and Mat Ishbia’s SFS take the 200M shares under the backstop in what amounts to a controlled recapitalization.
Samhällsbyggnadsbolaget i Norden (Sweden: SBB B) — Registry clearance sets completion of the SEK 6.8B residential sale to KlaraBo for September 23 and redemption of Morgan Stanley’s SEK 2.4B of 13% preference shares by September 30, a dated deleveraging step for a stock at 0.39x long-term NAV with 54% LTV.
ASA Gold and Precious Metals (US: ASA) — The Saba-installed board voted on September 4 to convert this gold closed-end fund into a Saba-managed credit BDC with no tender at NAV, so holders buying at an 18% discount are betting the conversion vote narrows the gap rather than swapping gold exposure for BDC fees.
Team Internet Group (UK: TIG) — The board reaffirmed on September 7 that its Domains, Identity and Software division should fetch materially more than $160M, about 116% of the £102M market value, with a deal targeted for around year-end and about $118M of net debt deciding how much of it reaches shareholders.
MSG Sports (US: MSGS) — An amendment to the Rangers Form 10 fixes an end-of-October target, leaving the consolidated equity near $390 per share, as compared to roughly $570 per share implied by the latest Forbes marks for the two franchises, a discount of close to 30%.
Resonac Holdings (Japan: 4004) — Resonac distributes 81% of petrochemical unit Crasus Chemical on October 1 through a September 29 direct listing, and because Nikkei Inc. adds Crasus to the Nikkei 225 for the listing day only and deletes it the next, index funds must sell the stub within a single session.
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