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Latticework 2026 (November 10-11) is fully booked. I look forward to welcoming a great group in Chicago for fireside chats, panel discussions, idea pitches as well as a reception and dinner.
This is the nineteenth issue of This Week in Special Situations, our curated survey of actionable ideas. We do not attempt to profile every special situation. The universe of activist campaigns, buybacks, insider purchases, strategic reviews, and merger arbitrage spreads is vast, and most of it is noise. We filter for situations with a misaligned price or a noteworthy structural reason for market inefficiency.
Over time we will likely narrow this list further. That is where you come in. Please tell us which situations added value to your process and, just as importantly, which were of no consequence. Brutally honest feedback is the most valuable input we can receive. It will shape what we keep and what we cut. Our goal is to make this survey progressively more useful to you.
This week’s report (available as a slide deck) profiles 37 situations across four buckets: activist campaigns, capital return and insider conviction, M&A, and strategic alternatives. Below we highlight the handful that stand out on catalyst clarity, valuation, and asymmetry, followed by thesis summaries covering a broad cross-section of the report.
This publication is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The information is based on publicly available data and regulatory filings. Errors are not only possible but likely. Readers should conduct their own research.
Watch a roundup of this week’s special situations:
The Situations That Stand Out
Mattel (US: MAT) has its 18% holder, whose cost sits above today’s price, on the board, a second value investor weighing a sale-seeking proxy fight, and a reported Authentic Brands approach above $20 a share, roughly 30% over the $15.43 close. EdgePoint’s October 22 13D shows ~50M shares at a ~$16.40 average, and an October 21 agreement gave partner Lee Matheson a board seat that EdgePoint loses below a 10% stake. Semafor reported that Southeastern, which disclosed over 4% in a May letter urging strategic alternatives, is weighing director nominations to push for a sale. The Wall Street Journal reported the Authentic Brands approach on October 1; a Reuters source put it above $20 and said no formal sale process is under way. On October 12 the board raised CEO Roger Lynch’s change-in-control severance multiple to 2.99x from 2x.
Winnebago Industries (US: WGO) has an unused $180M buyback equal to 22% of its ~$810M market cap, net leverage down to 2.2x, and a director nominee bound for the committee that must now review capital allocation at least annually. Under an October 22 cooperation agreement Vision One withdrew its nominations and the board nominated Lamar Advertising CFO Jay L. Johnson, who stands at the December 15 annual meeting; it will also propose phasing out its classified structure by 2029, which needs 75% of all outstanding shares. Fiscal 2026 produced ~$145M of FCF, ~$82M of it from lower receivables and higher payables, and none of the authorization was used. After a 26% rise since October 19, the stock trades at under 9x adjusted EBITDA and ~15x the midpoint of fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS guidance, with a 5% dividend yield.
IG Group Holdings plc (UK: IGG) trades at under 8x trailing earnings, 43% below its price before the Underdog deal, and its CEO and CFO bought ~£760K in the two sessions after the company held its 10%+ organic revenue growth target. CEO Breon Corcoran bought 70,000 shares at ~£9.46 on October 23 and 26, about £660K, and CFO Clifford Abrahams bought 10,000, having paid ~£13.30 in August. The October 22 Capital Markets Event kept the mid-40s EBITDA margin target and the 2027 buyback restart; the £125M program halted July 30 with ~£92M unexecuted. The stock fell 23% on October 2, when the Q3 update cut 2026 revenue growth to a mid-single-digit range, and Q3 revenue fell 14% as OTC revenue retention dropped to 70%. Underdog costs ~24.1M new shares, ~$380M of cash and an earnout of up to ~$200M.
PayPal Holdings (US: PYPL) has retired nearly 10% of its share count since December and still has ~$9.4B, 20% of its ~$47B market cap, left on a buyback with no expiry, with the stock at 10x its raised ~$5.60 non-GAAP EPS guidance. The Q3 10-Q, filed October 27, shows ~$1.5B spent in the quarter at ~$55 a share and ~$4.5B this year at ~$48, cutting the count from 920M at December 31 to ~831M on October 21. At the trailing 12-month pace of ~$6B, the remaining authorization lasts about 19 months. Management raised 2026 guidance from $5.38, and the stock rose 2% that day to $56.09. Funding is the caveat: Q3 FCF of ~$1.4B trailed ~$1.6B of buybacks and dividends, and debt rose to ~$13.5B from ~$11.6B at year end, against ~$13.3B of cash and investments.
InMode (US: INMD) has a $16.75 cash proposal from Steel Partners on the table, 23% above the $13.58 close, and ~$500M of cash with no debt covering 64% of its market cap, which values the business at about 4x guided non-GAAP operating income. The proposal, for up to 100% of the shares, expires October 30; Steel says the company has opened no data room and ties an NDA to Steel dropping its claims against the directors, and that it will pursue all available remedies after expiry. On October 26 the special committee said the board kept it in place after a $16.20 proposal from a group including CEO Moshe Mizrahy, who reports 8%, lapsed on September 15, and that its review includes returns of capital. Preliminary Q3 revenue of ~$92M trails last year’s ~$93M.
Quick Thesis Summaries
Other timely situations profiled in this week’s report include:
Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. (US: ETD) — ISS, Glass Lewis and Egan-Jones all back removing chairman and CEO Farooq Kathwari in Doug Bergeron’s universal-proxy contest for all five board seats on November 4. The debt-free furniture maker trades at 13x trailing earnings and keeps about $96M of cash after its $3.00 special dividend, with first-quarter results due November 9.
Greenbrier (US: GBX) — Atlas, which took ODP private at $28 a share in December 2025, has seated Emanuel Pearlman on Greenbrier’s board after tripling its stake to about 2.5% in the June quarter. The stock trades at 0.74x book and roughly 10x FY26 core EBITDA, and Pearlman stands for election at the January 6, 2027 annual meeting.
LEG Immobilien (Germany: LEG) — Aroundtown’s Grand City Properties now owns 20.04% of LEG and may go to 29.9%, just under Germany’s 30% mandatory-offer line, yet LEG has risen only 3% since the October 20 news. The stock trades at 0.35x June EPRA NTA, and 2026 FFO I guidance equals about 13% of its €3.7B market cap.
Nippon Paper Industries (Japan: 3863) — The Murakami group has lifted its stake to nearly 11% and is pressing for buybacks, asset sales and a take-private including an MBO, just after Nippon Paper raised ~¥95B selling Lintec shares, 65% of its market cap. The stock trades at 0.28x book, though net debt of ~¥680B is 7.9x trailing EBITDA and management puts debt reduction first.
Santen Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (Japan: 4536) — Silchester’s 10.25% stake makes it Santen’s principal shareholder, and its new filing states a policy of making proposals on capital policy, business structure and governance, including board composition. Santen held ¥78B of cash at June 30, 14% of its market cap, and the ¥1,753 close sits 17% above Silchester’s ¥1,496 average cost.
TV Asahi (Japan: 9409) — The Murakami family has crossed 5% of debt-free TV Asahi, at 5.06%, and has proposed higher dividends and buybacks, asset sales and a take-private including an MBO. The stock trades at 0.7x book with ¥68B of cash and short-term securities, 20% of its market cap, plus listed stakes worth ¥185B.
Whitbread (UK: WTB) — Glass Lewis backs Corvex’s bid to seat partner James Gemmel at the November 9 general meeting, while ISS and PIRC recommend against. Corvex holds 7% including swaps in the Premier Inn owner, which trades at 13x trailing adjusted EPS, owns 53% of its UK&I estate freehold and targets £2B of FCF for shareholder returns by FY31, about 46% of its market cap.
Castellum (Sweden: CAST) — Castellum is putting SEK 8B, 14% of its market cap and 60% of its Wihlborgs proceeds, into buybacks with the stock at 0.81x EPRA NTA. The 10% treasury cap limits it to about 43M shares, roughly SEK 5.7B, by the April 29, 2027 AGM, and filling the cap alone lifts NTA per share about 2%.
Chuo Spring (Japan: 5992) — Chuo Spring authorized a ¥15B buyback, 16% of its market cap, and placed a ToSTNeT-3 order for ~3.4M shares, 13% of the total, at ¥3,545, about 1x book, putting its 2030 plan’s entire six-year buyback budget to work within one year. The same day it cut FY3/27 operating profit guidance 46%.
F5 (US: FFIV) — F5 added $1.5B to its buyback, lifting unused capacity to ~$1.8B, 7% of its $26B market cap, against ~$1.6B of cash and investments, no borrowings and ~$870M of fiscal 2026 FCF. At the FY26 repurchase pace of ~$600M the capacity lasts about three years, and the stock trades at 25x the FY27 non-GAAP EPS guidance midpoint.
Hexcel Corporation (US: HXL) — Hexcel nearly doubled its buyback authorization to $750M, 13% of its market cap, after a post-earnings slide put the stock within 2% of the ~$77 average price of last year’s $350M accelerated repurchase. Net debt fell to ~$860M, about 2.3x trailing GAAP EBITDA, and guidance still calls for FCF above $195M.
ICON plc (US: ICLR) — ICON retired 3% of its share count in one quarter with a $400M buyback at ~$170 a share, and the board has reloaded the authorization to $750M, 0.9x trailing FCF of ~$860M. Net book-to-bill reached 1.6x with a ~$24B backlog, and the stock trades at 17x the midpoint of FY26 adjusted EPS guidance.
Invesco (US: IVZ) — Invesco has retired $1.5B of MassMutual’s 5.9% perpetual preferred, removing $89M of non-deductible annual dividends, about $0.20 per common share, against roughly $79M a year of pre-tax loan cost. The stock trades at about 10x annualized third-quarter adjusted EPS after $35B of third-quarter net long-term inflows.
Lithia Motors (US: LAD) — Lithia has bought back 9% of its shares in 2026 and has ~$540M of authorization left, 8% of its market cap, with the stock at 7x EV to adjusted EBITDA and 16% below the ~$345 average it paid in the third quarter. A 13% lower diluted share count lifted adjusted EPS 9% even as adjusted net income fell 5%.
NXP Semiconductors N.V. (US: NXPI) — NXP’s new $5B buyback plus $1.3B left on its 2024 program gives it $6.3B of authorization, nearly 10% of its $64B market cap, backed by trailing FCF of $3.5B, up 82% in a year. Net leverage is down to 1.3x, though third-quarter buybacks came to only $103M.
PROG Holdings (US: PRG) — PROG Holdings lifted its buyback capacity to $500M, 43% of its market cap, and plans a $100M accelerated repurchase in the fourth quarter equal to about 9% of its shares. The stock trades at 6x the midpoint of 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance, which it cut to $4.70-4.85, with net leverage at 1.5x.
Simpson Manufacturing (US: SSD) — Simpson quintupled its buyback authorization to $1B with no expiration date, 13% of its market cap, backed by ~$180M of net cash and ~$580M of trailing operating CF. At its nine-month repurchase pace the new authorization would last about 4.5 years, and the stock trades at 21x trailing EPS.
SiteOne Landscape Supply (US: SITE) — SiteOne added $500M to its buyback, lifting capacity to ~$540M or 12% of its $4.4B market cap, after retiring 3% of its shares this year. CEO Doug Black bought 13,000 shares in the open market in August at ~$96 to $102, and net debt sits at 1.2x trailing adjusted EBITDA.
Slide Insurance (US: SLDE) — Slide Insurance is paying a $1.50 special dividend on November 30, 5% of its pre-announcement close and 14% of equity, after lifting 2026 net income guidance to $500-520M. The stock trades at 6x trailing diluted earnings, and the Lucases’ 42M shares collect about $63M of the special.
SNDL Inc. (US: SNDL) — SNDL plans a C$50M issuer bid at up to C$1.92 (US$1.35), 4% above the close, that could retire 11% of its shares, with the stock at 0.44x book and no debt. It has also opened a strategic review of the Cannabis Operations segment, which lost C$11M on an adjusted basis in the third quarter.
TPG RE Finance Trust (US: TRTX) — TPG RE doubled its buyback to $50M, 10% of its ~$480M market cap, with the stock at 0.58x book and yielding 15% on a $0.24 quarterly dividend that Distributable Earnings before realized losses matched in Q3. Fully deployed at $6.30, it would lift book value per share by roughly $0.53.
TransUnion (US: TRU) — TransUnion added $1B to its buyback, lifting capacity to ~$1.5B or 10% of its market cap, and guided to up to ~$260M of fourth-quarter repurchases, double the third-quarter pace. The stock fell 5% on a beat-and-raise print to 6% below the ~$80 average it paid in the quarter, and trades at 16x the adjusted EPS guidance midpoint.
United Therapeutics Corporation (US: UTHR) — United Therapeutics authorized a fresh $2B buyback, 8% of its $25B market cap, six weeks after committing the last ~$480M of its prior $2B program. It has about $3.3B of net cash, Liquidia owes it $330.4M under an October 13 patent settlement, and the stock trades at 21x trailing EPS.
Wealthfront (US: WLTH) — Wealthfront has lifted its buyback capacity to ~$170M, 10% of its market cap, with ~$450M of cash behind it and first-half adjusted FCF of $71M that more than covered the $60M it spent on repurchases. Issuance has kept pace, though, and the share count rose to ~156M at September 11 from ~151M at July 31.
Logan Energy Corp. (Canada: LGN) — Logan Energy holders get Ovintiv’s C$1.40 in cash plus shares and C$1.00 warrants in a heavy-oil spinco whose management plans to buy about C$70M of its stock at C$1.00. At C$1.55 the stock trades 5% above the C$1.48 stated total, so a buyer pays C$0.15 a share for a package Logan marks at C$0.08.
UniFirst (US: UNF) — Cintas’s $155 cash plus 0.7720-share offer is worth ~$321, 28% above UniFirst’s $250.40 close, after Semafor reported the FTC has indicated it will sue to block the deal; the commission has not voted. If antitrust ends the deal, Cintas owes a $350M reverse break fee, $19.35 per UniFirst share.
Artiva Biotherapeutics (US: ARTV) — Artiva has stopped AlloNK, cut 94% of its staff and hired Leerink Partners to merge, sell or liquidate, and at $4.27 the stock trades 32% below its $6.25 of preliminary cash per share. Netting every June 30 liability still leaves $5.84 a share, though the company gives no estimate of wind-down costs.
Braskem (US: BAK) — Both restructuring term sheets now public leave Braskem’s shareholders in place, and Braskem’s own would convert up to $2.8B of ~$11B of unsecured claims into stock at market and raise $2.25B, against a ~$540M market cap. The creditors’ counter converts $1.85B of debt at R$2.00, 46% below the R$3.70 preferred close.
Enovix Corporation (US: ENVX) — Enovix is distributing one $3.00 warrant per four shares that can be exercised with its 3.00% 2028 notes at face, so exercises can retire up to $172.5M of debt without cash, after it bought back $100M of its 2030 notes at a 37% discount to par. The warrants expire early if the stock holds at or above $3.30 on 20 of any 30 trading days.
LKQ (US: LKQ) — Nine months into a review that includes a sale, LKQ’s board has named Salvatore Abbate, who sold Veritiv for $2.6B, CEO from December 15 and retained Alvarez & Marsal for Europe. The stock trades at 6x trailing EBITDA, 0.7x book and a 7% dividend yield after a 23% one-day fall, with full Q3 results on October 29.
Thyssenkrupp (Germany: TKA) — It handed shareholders 49% of TK Accelis, which began trading in Frankfurt on October 28, leaving a parent that closed October 27 at 0.94x book with €2.6B of net cash and a 51% stake in TK Accelis that now carries a market price. Against that sit €5B of pension provisions.
UWM Holdings (US: UWMC) — CEO Mat Ishbia’s family vehicle is obligated to backstop UWM’s $400M rights offering at a price of no less than $2.00, 28% above the $1.56 close, after the lender pre-announced third-quarter net income of $205-220M. It also guided to a fourth-quarter MSR sale bringing in over $1.8B for debt paydown.
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