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Latticework 2026 (November 10-11) is fully booked. I look forward to welcoming a great group in Chicago for fireside chats, panel discussions, idea pitches as well as a reception and dinner.
This is the twentieth issue of This Week in Special Situations, our curated survey of actionable ideas. We do not attempt to profile every special situation. The universe of activist campaigns, buybacks, insider purchases, strategic reviews, and merger arbitrage spreads is vast, and most of it is noise. We filter for situations with a misaligned price or a noteworthy structural reason for market inefficiency.
Over time we will likely narrow this list further. That is where you come in. Please tell us which situations added value to your process and, just as importantly, which were of no consequence. Brutally honest feedback is the most valuable input we can receive. It will shape what we keep and what we cut. Our goal is to make this survey progressively more useful to you.
This week’s report (available as a slide deck) profiles 52 situations across four buckets: activist campaigns, capital return and insider conviction, M&A, and strategic alternatives. Below we highlight the handful that stand out on catalyst clarity, valuation, and asymmetry, followed by thesis summaries covering a broad cross-section of the report.
This publication is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The information is based on publicly available data and regulatory filings. Errors are not only possible but likely. Readers should conduct their own research.
The Situations That Stand Out
AutoNation (US: AN) has ~$1.4B of buyback authorization left, 24% of its ~$5.9B market cap, after cutting the share count 9% this year. Its CEO, CFO and general counsel have just bought ~$1.4M of stock in the open market. The Q3 release announced a further $1.0B of authorization, with no expiration date. Through October 28 the company bought ~3.4M shares this year at an average of ~$195, and the $183.47 November 4 close sits 6% below that cost. CEO Mike Manley bought 5,600 shares for ~$1.0M on November 2; the last open-market insider purchase before this month was in February 2024. At the close, the remaining authorization would buy back ~7.7M shares at 8.8x trailing diluted EPS. Funding is the constraint: covenant leverage was 2.71x against a 3.75x ceiling.
Lear (US: LEA) has tripled its remaining buyback capacity to ~$1.5B, roughly 26% of its ~$5.7B market cap, and trades at 4.4x EV to guided adjusted EBITDA with an 11% FCF yield. The board raised the authorization on September 24 and extended it to December 31, 2029. Q3 buying of ~1.4M shares at an average of $127.19 completed the $350M full-year target, and the $118.70 November 4 close sits 7% below that price; since 2011 Lear has repurchased shares equal to about 62% of its starting count. Using the authorization by expiry takes ~$460M a year, roughly 8% of the shares annually. Guided 2026 FCF of $565M-665M leaves $415M-515M after ~$150M of common dividends, and dividends to minority partners took another $81M in the first nine months.
NexPoint Residential Trust (US: NXRT) has authorized $150M of buybacks through October 26, 2028, a third of its ~$450M market cap, with the stock 54% below management’s $38.33 NAV midpoint and its CIO buying shares in October. The program, disclosed with Q3 results on November 3, replaces a $100M plan under which NXRT bought nothing in the first nine months of 2026. At the $17.53 November 4 close the stock trades at 7.9x the $2.22 Core FFO guidance midpoint, cut from $2.45 after Q3 same-store NOI fell 8%. Funding is the constraint: finishing on schedule takes ~$19M a quarter, while Q3 AFFO left ~$2.1M after the dividend, and September 30 debt of ~$1.6B equals 78% of debt plus market cap. Dispositions, guided to a $100M midpoint with none closed through September 30, are the main lever.
AudioCodes (US: AUDC) bought back 6% of its shares in Q3 and had ~$27M, 14% of its market cap, left at September 30 under a court approval running to March 9, 2027, after a 22% one-day fall to $8.09 left trailing FCF at 12% of the market cap. The Q3 buyback of ~1.5M shares averaged ~$10, and on November 5 AudioCodes announced a new Rule 10b5-1 plan that lets a broker keep buying through blackout periods. The stock fell on November 4, the day AudioCodes reported Q3 revenue up 4% to ~$64M and combined Live and VoiceAI ARR up 16% to $87M. Cash flow is not covering the payout: AudioCodes returned ~$54M over the trailing twelve months against ~$22M of FCF, and cash and investments fell to ~$47M from ~$76M in December, with no financial debt.
Xponential Fitness (US: XPOF) has a non-binding take-private proposal of $5.61-7.00 a share in cash from Fund 1 Investments, which has 19.9% economic exposure, and the low end sits 24% above the $4.53 November 4 close. Fund 1 holds 9.9% in Class A shares plus cash-settled swaps on roughly another 10%; its October 30 letter set the range at least 50% above the $3.74 undisturbed close. The proposal needs board approval, diligence and financing, though Fund 1 says definitive agreements would carry no financing condition, and a majority stake needs a waiver of the October 12 rights plan. A Jefferies-advised strategic review has run since April 6, and the company had not responded publicly through November 4, with Q3 results due November 5 after the close. The range implies a ~$790-860M EV, 8.4-9.1x guided 2026 adjusted EBITDA.
Quick Thesis Summaries
Other timely situations profiled in this week’s report include:
Avnet, Inc. (US: AVT) — Wishbone Management, whose fund holds 400,000 shares, about 0.5%, will vote against chair Rodney Adkins and audit chair Ernest Maddock at the November 20 meeting over a 2025 convertible struck at $70.27 that now implies roughly 2% dilution. Fiscal second-quarter adjusted EPS guidance of $3.90-4.10 puts the stock at 5.4x annualized earnings, with debt at ~$4.2B against ~$240M of cash.
Hanjin KAL Corp. (Korea: 180640) — Hoban Construction has overtaken the Cho family as Hanjin KAL’s largest holder, 20.69% to 20.58%, after the stock rose 37% in two sessions. Chairman Cho Won-tae plans to buy a 325,000-share block at KRW 114,000, 38% below the November 4 close, settling December 3, and his filed bloc reaches 31% counting Korea Development Bank’s 11%.
Knife River (US: KNF) — Starboard wants a credible plan to reach 22% adjusted EBITDA margins by FY2029, against Knife River’s 15%, or a banker to explore a sale, citing aggregates deals at a 12x median EBITDA multiple against 8x 2027 estimates. Knife River then cut 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance 9% at the midpoint, and all seven board seats stand for election in 2027, with nominations opening January 20.
Medipal Holdings Corporation (Japan: 7459) — Medipal has called the December 15 extraordinary meeting that Silchester, its 13% top holder, demanded, where holders vote on removing chairman Shuichi Watanabe, a ¥122 special dividend and a buyback of up to ¥85B, 12% of the market cap. The board opposes all three and has offered a ¥10B buyback instead, about 1% of the cap.
MIRAIT ONE Corporation (Japan: 1417) — Oasis Management has crossed 5% of MIRAIT ONE, at 5.04%, is proposing a delisting or a sale to a majority buyer, and plans to add more than five further percentage points within three months of October 26. The stock trades 2% above Oasis’s ¥3,212 average cost, at 1.0x book and 11x guided earnings, with first-half results due November 9.
Seer, Inc. (US: SEER) — Seer trades at $1.70, 45% of its $3.78 a share of June 30 cash and investments, after its special committee rejected $2.55 in cash plus a CVR from Radoff-JEC and $2.45 plus two CVRs from CEO Omid Farokhzad. BML, a 4.7% holder just under the 4.9% NOL rights plan trigger, is pressing the board to reconsider, and Q3 results are due November 10.
Vail Resorts (US: MTN) — Oasis, a 9.6% holder with ~$550M in the stock, has narrowed its slate to Bob Chapek and Ashton Hudson and needs only two of nine plurality seats at the December 14 meeting. Baron Capital, with 18%, will vote for all nine company nominees, and Vail trades at 11x guided FY27 EBITDA with net debt at 3.9x.
Yamato Holdings (Japan: 9064) — Farallon has disclosed a 5.02% stake bought for ~¥38B and wants chairman Yutaka Nagao off the board, leaving president Toshiyuki Sakurai as the only insider director. Yamato then reported an H1 operating loss of ~¥1.8B but held its ¥42B operating profit target, which needs ~¥44B in H2, up 36%, and the June 2027 AGM is the next vote on Nagao.
American Financial Group (US: AFG) — AFG declared a $3.50 special dividend, about $290M or 2% of its price, bringing 2026 specials to $5.00 a share and specials declared since 2021 to $59.00, 38% of the stock price. Record core EPS of $3.97 includes $1.21 from a resort sale, and about $670M, 5% of the market cap, remains under the buyback authorization.
Boot Barn Holdings (US: BOOT) — Boot Barn added $400M to its open-ended buyback, lifting capacity to ~$470M, 11% of its ~$4.4B market cap, after Q2 sales rose 15% and diluted EPS 26%. The stock trades at 16x the FY27 EPS guidance midpoint, but H1 operating cash flow less capex covered only $26M of ~$60M of buybacks, and Q3 comps are guided to -1% to +1%.
Bright Horizons Family Solutions (US: BFAM) — Bright Horizons has retired 14% of its shares since December at about $72 each, and the stock trades 22% below that cost at 11x the midpoint of 2026 adjusted EPS guidance, cut to $4.98-5.03 alongside a $290M goodwill impairment. Buybacks outran cash generation as debt rose to ~$1.4B from ~$950M, and ~$240M, 9% of the market cap, remains authorized.
Capri Holdings (US: CPRI) — Capri bought back 9% of its shares in one quarter, and on November 4 the stock closed 46% above the average price paid. It still has ~$720M, a third of its market cap, left on a program running to March 2029, but six-month FCF of $84M trailed $200M of buybacks and revolver borrowings rose to $440M.
Chudenko Corporation (Japan: 1941) — Chudenko is buying back 12% of its shares from parent Chugoku Electric at ¥4,614, about 10% below the November 4 close and 6% below book value per share, paid from cash with no borrowing. If all 6.3M shares are bought, Chugoku’s stake falls to 33.4%, keeping a blocking stake, and guided FY3/27 EPS rises to about ¥489 on the post-tender count.
CoreCivic, Inc. (US: CXW) — CoreCivic added $500M to its buyback, leaving ~$760M of capacity, 29% of its ~$2.6B market cap, after selling four detention facilities to DHS for $2.2B and retiring 14% of its shares this year. The stock trades at 6x guided 2026 Adjusted EBITDA, but every ICE contract can be terminated for convenience, and ten insiders sold 484,287 shares from August 12 to October 1.
Cricut (US: CRCT) — Cricut will pay $0.80 a share in January, a $0.70 special plus its $0.10 semi-annual dividend, worth 9% of the price after the stock jumped 49% on Q3 results. The payout costs ~$170M, 61% of its ~$270M of cash and securities with no borrowings, and Petrus’s HWGAA, with 58% of the equity, collects about $97M.
Crocs (US: CROX) — Crocs has ~$1.7B of buyback authorization left, 24% of its ~$7.3B market cap, after cutting its share count 9% this year and raising FY26 adjusted EPS guidance for a third time, to $14.45-14.65. The stock trades at 11x the midpoint but closed 30% above the Q3 average repurchase price.
Dynatrace (US: DT) — Dynatrace added a $1B buyback on November 3, lifting capacity to ~$1.3B on a ~$13B market cap that has fallen 27% since October 27, after retiring ~12M shares in H1. The total is about 2.2x the $600-605M FY27 adjusted FCF guide (February Investor Day will present a capital allocation framework).
Employers Holdings (US: EIG) — Employers has cut its share count 23% in a year and had $95M of buyback authority left at September 30, 11% of its ~$830M market cap, with the stock at 0.89x adjusted book after a 13% post-earnings drop. The holding company held only $32M of cash and investments, and its insurance subsidiaries cannot pay further 2026 dividends without regulatory approval.
Etsy, Inc. (US: ETSY) — Etsy has ~$2.2B of buyback capacity left, 26% of its ~$8.3B market cap, after Depop’s $1.4B cash sale helped fund a 13% one-year cut in the share count. Trailing FCF of ~$560M covers about a quarter of that capacity, and ~$2.4B of convert principal falls due from 2027 to 2030, $650M of it in September 2027.
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (US: HGV) — Hilton Grand Vacations retired about 6% of its shares through a $200M accelerated repurchase the day after its Q3 report, leaving the count 14% below December’s, and CEO Mark Wang and a director then bought stock at about $41. Contract sales fell 11% and FY26 adjusted EBITDA guidance was cut, while ~$420M of authorization, 13% of the market cap, remains.
JBT Marel Corporation (US: JBTM) — JBT Marel added $500M to its buyback, leaving ~$580M of capacity, 9% of its ~$6.4B market cap, after a record 18% adjusted EBITDA margin and a 55% rise in year-to-date FCF to $252M. The stock trades at 15x the raised adjusted EPS guidance midpoint, but net debt at 2.45x EBITDA leaves only $32M of room under the top of its 2.0-2.5x range.
Methanex (Canada: MX) — Methanex opens a 5% buyback costing ~$250M, under half of its $520M of Q3 adjusted FCF, with the stock at 5x trailing Adjusted EBITDA. Adjusted debt has fallen to ~$3.3B with de-leveraging still the stated priority, and M&G holds 15% on a Schedule 13D saying it bought the shares as undervalued.
MGIC Investment (US: MTG) — MGIC has cut its share count 11% in a year while earning a 14% annualized ROE, trades at 9x trailing EPS and 1.2x book, and still has ~$580M of buyback authorization, 10% of its market cap. A fresh $350M subsidiary dividend backs it, though the Q3 loss ratio more than doubled to 10%.
Mitsubishi Corporation (Japan: 8058) — Mitsubishi Corporation will buy back and cancel up to ¥1T of stock, 5% of its market cap, after finishing a ¥1T program a week early in March and lifting FY3/27 profit guidance to ¥1.2T. Committed returns of ~¥1.5T are 1.2x guided profit against negative first-half FCF of ~¥140B, and each cancellation lifts Berkshire Hathaway’s 11% stake.
Neostellar Capital Corp. (US: NSLR) — Neostellar Capital, the former SuRo Capital, extended its buyback with $25M left, 16% of its market cap, with the stock at 48% of NAV after its CEO and a director bought $0.8M of shares since August. The program has sat idle, with no repurchases in the first nine months of 2025 or 2026, and $41M of cash sits against $36M of notes due December 30.
Osaka Steel (Japan: 5449) — Osaka Steel will buy back 9% of its shares from parent Nippon Steel at ¥2,100, 11% below the pre-announcement close and 42% below book value per share, and pay a ¥69 special dividend that rises to ¥76 if the tender completes. Nippon Steel will tender its entire 56% stake and be prorated down to 51%.
Pelagos Insurance Capital (US: PLGO) — Pelagos Insurance Capital, the former Fidelis, replenished its buyback authorization to $400M, 18% of its ~$2.3B market cap, and lifted its dividend 47% after retiring 14% of its shares in the first half at an average ~$19.50. At 1.03x diluted book, further buybacks no longer add to book value per share, though at 7x trailing EPS they still lift EPS.
Rayonier Inc. (US: RYN) — Rayonier added a $300M buyback to the $66M left under its 2024 program, together 6% of its $6.0B market cap, with the stock 4% below the ~$21 average it paid for ~2.8M shares in Q3. Year-to-date CAD covered the dividends but left a $112M shortfall after buybacks, and debt stands at ~$1.9B.
Systena Corporation (Japan: 2317) — Systena will buy back up to ¥10B of stock, 6% of its market cap, and retire 42.6M treasury shares, 10% of its issued stock, on November 12, with ~¥28B of cash and deposits covering the program 2.8 times. The stock rose 8% on the news and trades at 15x guided FY3/27 EPS with a 4% dividend yield.
Talen Energy Corp (US: TLN) — Talen has retired ~3.8M shares, 8% of its September 30 count, through a $1.5B ASR funded by selling future PJM capacity cash flows, and still has $1.5B of authorization open, 11% of its ~$14B market cap. The stock trades at 9x the midpoint of 2027 adjusted FCF guidance, but net debt of ~$11B is 5.1x 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance against a 3.5x target.
Toyoda Gosei (Japan: 7282) — Toyoda Gosei will buy back up to ¥30B of stock by March 31, 2027, 5% of its market cap, at about book value and 10x guided earnings, after H1 operating profit rose 16% and a ~¥45B program was finished by March. About 10M shares will fund employee restricted stock, and the unchanged ¥80B guide implies a 10% drop in H2 operating profit.
Warrior Met Coal (US: HCC) — Blue Creek lifted Warrior’s Q3 sales volumes 48% and FCF to ~$140M, funding a $2.00 special dividend of about $106M, 76% of the quarter’s FCF, on a stock 7% below its declaration-day close. The company says any future special depends on excess cash flow, and the stock sits 26% below CEO Walter Scheller’s $110 sale in August.
Weyco (US: WEYS) — Weyco declared its third straight $2.00 special dividend, 3% of the stock price, after a Q3 that lifted operating earnings 71%, and still holds $95M of cash and securities against no debt. The quarter included $3.3M of IEEPA tariff refunds; excluding refunds, the stock trades at about 18x trailing EV/EBIT.
Willis Lease Finance Corporation (US: WLFC) — Willis Lease more than tripled its buyback authorization to $200M through 2031, nearly 20% of its ~$1.0B market cap, with the shares at 1.4x book and 14x trailing diluted EPS. The 10-Q records no repurchases in the first nine months of 2025 or 2026, and Executive Chairman Charles Willis, who owns 44%, sold 151,700 shares in August.
International Money Express (US: IMXI) — Western Union’s $16 cash offer for Intermex sits 93% above the $8.31 close, with the refiled HSR waiting period expired on November 2 and California DFPI reinstatement the one approval left. Either party may terminate if the merger is not completed by November 10, and WU’s $27.3M fee, $0.90 a share, applies to an antitrust-tied termination.
Companhia Siderurgica Nacional (Brazil: CSNA3) — CSN has given China’s Huaxin 10 days of exclusivity to sign the sale of CSN Cimentos at a R$12.7B enterprise value, 2.3x the steelmaker’s ~R$5.4B market cap and 30% of its R$42B net debt. CSNA3 has lost a third of its value since October 23, and cash to CSN depends on the cement unit’s own net debt, which is not stated.
KBR, Inc. (US: KBR) — KBR targets January 4, 2027 to spin at least 80.1% of Trinzic and collect ~$1.7B of Trinzic-borrowed cash, 79% of its own ~$2.1B net debt. The combined company trades at 7x TTM adjusted EBITDA and 10x the midpoint of reaffirmed FY26 adjusted EPS guidance, with separate investor days on November 11 and 12.
Liberty Global Ltd. (US: LBTYA) — Liberty Global reaffirmed its Q2 2027 spin-off of its 90% Ziggo Group stake, and even after a 23% three-session rally its $3.2B market cap sits below the ~$4.8B its own 10-Q implies for that stake alone. That excludes ~$2.0B of corporate cash and a 50% VMO2 stake, though the 10-Q flags the fair value as preliminary.
Net Lease Office Properties (US: NLOP) — Wind-down office REIT NLOP will pay a $1.50 special distribution on December 1, 17% of its November 4 close, taking payouts since its 2023 spin to $24.19 a share. That leaves a $7.45 stub on 15 debt-free buildings priced at 4.7x their rent, though three vacant buildings hold 34% of the remaining space.
NGEx Minerals Ltd (Canada: NGEX) — With its final court order won on November 3, NGEx will spin the Valle Ancho project into Valiente Resources on November 12, handing holders of the ~C$4.7B Lunahuasi explorer one-fifth of a Valiente share each, ~43M TSXV-bound shares in all. Index and large-cap holders may have little reason to keep them, and the releases give no amount for Valiente’s cash injection.
OPKO Health (US: OPK) — Labcorp’s $722M cash purchase of BioReference would leave OPKO with about $0.87 a share of net cash against the $1.77 close, pricing the remaining biopharma business at about $760M, 2.8x the 2026 revenue guidance midpoint. Closing needs HSR clearance by an April 14, 2027 outside date, and Labcorp owes a $28.9M fee if antitrust approval fails.
People Incorporated (US: PPLI) — People’s amended MGM voting pact lets it lift its 26% MGM stake to 29.9% and binds it to the MGM board on any sale. The ~$2.2B stake, less $100M of net debt, covers two-thirds of the ~$3.2B market cap and prices the rest at 4x guided 2026 Adjusted EBITDA, and Barry Diller controls 46% of the vote.
Redwood Trust (US: RWT) — Redwood Trust will convert to a C-corp from 2027 and book an $85-90M tax asset, a $0.73-0.77 per-share lift to a $6.56 book the stock trades at 0.5x. It is also cutting the quarterly dividend 89% to $0.02 and pairing a new $40M buyback with a $50M exchange of common into an 11% preferred, together 24% of its ~$380M market cap.
Standard BioTools Inc. (US: LAB) — Standard BioTools heads into a November 19 vote on its all-stock Treeline merger at a ~$240M market cap, about half the $450-475M of net cash it expects to deliver at closing. The $0.616 close sits 46% below the $1.14 per share implied by management’s liquidation analysis, and holders keep about 16% fully diluted plus a five-year CVR.
Stora Enso (Finland: STERV) — Stora Enso’s R shares trade 8% below the group’s own €10.66-per-share forest valuation, with holders of 70% of the votes committed to demerging its Swedish forest estate, worth ~€6.30 per share net of debt, at the December 15 EGM. That leaves the packaging stub at ~€5.4B of EV, 14x the illustrative adjusted EBIT ex-spinco.
Xerox (US: XRX) — Xerox is retiring $173.7M of its 5.5% 2028 notes for 69 cents of 10.25% first-lien 2030 paper per dollar plus stock valued at $2.37 a share, twice the $1.18 close, cutting ~$53M of principal. STARTEEPO, a 7% holder, urges a review of the finance arm, while Xerox has cut 2026 guidance and suspended dividends.
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