This Week in Special Situations is a research-based slide presentation sent on a separate mailing list. If you do not wish to receive it, opt out here.
Register now to join fellow capital allocators, portfolio managers, and CIOs at Latticework 2026 in Chicago on November 10-11 (preliminary agenda).
This is the fifteenth issue of This Week in Special Situations, our curated survey of actionable ideas. We do not attempt to profile every special situation. The universe of activist campaigns, buybacks, insider purchases, strategic reviews, and merger arbitrage spreads is vast, and most of it is noise. We filter for situations with a misaligned price or a noteworthy structural reason for market inefficiency.
Over time we will likely narrow this list further. That is where you come in. Please tell us which situations added value to your process and, just as importantly, which were of no consequence. Brutally honest feedback is the most valuable input we can receive. It will shape what we keep and what we cut. Our goal is to make this survey progressively more useful to you.
This week’s report (available as a slide deck) profiles 40 situations across four buckets: activist campaigns, capital return and insider conviction, M&A, and strategic alternatives. Below we highlight the handful that stand out on catalyst clarity, valuation, and asymmetry, followed by thesis summaries covering a broad cross-section of the report.
This publication is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The information is based on publicly available data and regulatory filings. Errors are not only possible but likely. Readers should conduct their own research.
The Situations That Stand Out
Exor (Netherlands: EXO) is buying back up to €500M of its own stock at 46 cents on the euro of NAV, funded from a balance sheet with LTV under 5% and roughly €4B of deployable cash on the way. The program, announced September 22, equals about 3% of the ~€15B market cap, and a first €125M tranche started September 23 under a bank mandate expected to finish by end-November. At ~€73 the stock sits 54% below June 30 NAV of ~€158 per share, so the full program adds roughly 2% to NAV per share on a static basis. Deployable cash rises to around €4B once Tata’s tender for Iveco and the Welltec sale close, and the risk is the portfolio itself, with NAV per share down 4% in the first half, mainly on Stellantis.
Lennar Corporation (US: LEN) trades below book value while Berkshire Hathaway, now holding roughly 11% of the Class A, keeps buying after a weak quarter. Berkshire’s Form 4 shows 16 open-market purchases from September 17 to 21 totaling ~$210M, including ~2.7M Class A shares at a ~$77 average, lifting its position to ~24M Class A shares worth roughly $2.0B. The buying came immediately after a fiscal third quarter in which orders fell 9%, home-sale gross margin slipped to 16% from 18%, and delivery guidance was cut to 80,000-81,000 homes. At ~$82 the stock trades at 0.9x book and 5% above the ~$77 Berkshire just paid, below the ~$85 Lennar itself paid for 3M shares last quarter, and no Lennar officer or director has bought in the open market in six months.
Vail Resorts (US: MTN) lets investors buy alongside Oasis Management at the fund’s own ~$142 average cost, as Oasis runs a four-seat proxy slate led by former Disney CEO Robert Chapek and reserves the right to propose a strategic review or sale. Oasis’s September 22 13D/A reports 7% of the shares, ~9% including swaps, after it sold below 5% over the summer and bought back in on September 11, the day after Vail’s nomination window closed. Its case is that Vail’s 42 resorts are undervalued against peers. All ten directors stand annually, Baron Capital’s 18% is the vote to watch, and Vail has answered only with a director search due to finish in early 2027. Fiscal results on September 28 land against $735-755M of Resort Reported EBITDA guidance, with net debt at 3.5x and a 6% dividend yield.
Borr Drilling (US: BORR) has director Tor Olav Troim and CEO Bruno Morand buying in the open market at $4.30-4.40, a clustered insider bet that the jack-up fleet’s earnings recover. Troim bought ~1.2M shares on September 16-17, taking his open-market buying since August 13 to ~3.4M shares for ~$14M at a ~$4.20 average and his stake to 9.9%. Morand followed on September 18. The buying came after the Odin began earning dayrate offshore Texas, ENI extended the Bestla to September 2027, and the Idun won a Vietnam campaign. The risk is leverage: Q2 adjusted EBITDA halved to ~$44M, net debt stands at 6.2x trailing EBITDA, and the secured notes alone carry ~$180M a year of coupon.
Quick Thesis Summaries
The remaining situations in this week’s report:
Anavex Life Sciences (US: AVXL) — Glass Lewis backed two of PVG’s six nominees and opposed the chair ahead of the September 24 vote while ISS sided with the company, at a biotech whose ~$120M of June 30 cash and no debt cover about half its ~$220M market cap.
Better Home & Finance Holding (US: BETR) — Founder Vishal Garg claims consents from more than 46% of the vote for removing five directors, including interim CEO Daniel Lewis, and targets a majority by October 2, while the company calls the claim false and the stock trades 55% below its August 3 close.
Ethan Allen Interiors (US: ETD) — Doug Bergeron’s DGB owns 5.2% and runs a full five-nominee universal-proxy slate over who succeeds 38-year chairman and CEO Farooq Kathwari, at a debt-free furniture maker holding ~$96M of cash and trading at 7x FY26 EBITDA after a $3.00 special dividend.
Funko (US: FNKO) — Fund 1 Investments, which has offered itself as a bidder, lifted its economic exposure to 21% while keeping votes under 10%, with the stock 26% below its ~$7 cost at 6x EBITDA, a credit agreement maturing December 31, 2027, and The Chernin Group’s 22.6% stake holding a consent right over any sale.
Group 1 Automotive (US: GPI) — Conifer parlays a 13% stake for a board seat and a standstill to 2030 that keeps its free vote on any sale, and it kept buying near $250 in a stock down 18% since September 4, as a $1.25B debt-funded Atlanta deal lifts net leverage to 4.2x.
Hugo Boss (Germany: BOSS) — Frasers Group, at ~48% after its offer, installed its own CEO Michael Murray as chairman on September 15 and says it intends to exceed 50% (no price or timing stated), while the stock sits just above the €38 offer, on 12x trailing EPS.
OraSure Technologies (US: OSUR) — A Yorkville-Islet group holding 6% is preparing possible 2027 board nominations and lists a sale of the company among its options, at a diagnostics maker trading at 0.87x book whose ~$160M of cash covers 58% of its market cap despite a $27M first-half burn.
Rightmove (UK: RMV) — Sachem Head holds a ~6% economic position through cash-settled CFDs and is reportedly pushing for debt-funded buybacks, at a debt-free portal already guiding to more than £400M of returns by July 2027 with a new £200M revolver in place and the stock down 35% in a year.
Six Flags Entertainment (US: FUN) — Jana Partners, with a roughly 9% economic stake, is urging the board to hire a bank and sell, and at 5.8x net leverage each turn of takeout multiple is worth about $8 per share, roughly two-thirds of the recent stock price.
Toho Holdings (Japan: 8129) — A Tokyo court on September 18 provisionally blocked Toho’s shareholder-approved poison pill, clearing 3D Investment Partners to lift its 24.7% voting stake toward a pledged 27.02% cap at a drug wholesaler trading at 0.98x book with ~¥103B of net cash, about 40% of its market cap.
TORM (US: TRMD) — Hafnia took half of Oaktree’s 9M-share block at $32.25 to reach an 18% stake and is still weighing a combination of the two tanker fleets, while Oaktree’s September 23 notice to sell 5M more shares under a lock-up to November 13 leaves supply hanging over a stock at about 1.0x ex-dividend NAV.
Whitbread (UK: WTB) — Corvex, with 7% including a swap, has requisitioned a general meeting to seat partner James Gemmel, forcing a vote by November 10 on a Premier Inn owner at 11x adjusted earnings whose April plan spends ~£2.5B of capex while pausing FY27 buybacks.
Doosan (Korea: 000150) — Doosan will cancel 12% of its issued shares on October 2, ~KRW 3.3T of treasury stock at market value, leaving only a 3% RSU reserve, the same day its board committed ~KRW 970B to laminate capacity for AI data centers, with the stock up 9% since September 16.
Funding Circle Holdings (UK: FCH) — Funding Circle rolled from a completed £25M buyback straight into a fourth £25M program, just under 5% of its market cap, after first-half pre-tax profit quadrupled and FY26 guidance rose above £40M, leaving the stock under 14x guided pre-tax profit and down 19% since the September 8 results.
Grab Holdings (US: GRAB) — CEO Anthony Tan bought $30M of stock at about $2.89 on September 21, breaking from monthly 10b5-1 sales, days after Grab committed to spend the remaining ~$900M of its buyback within 12 months, enough to retire about 7% of the shares at the current price.
Hennes & Mauritz (Sweden: HM B) — The Persson family owns 68% of H&M after buying ~37M shares this year at ~SEK 169. Reaching the 90% squeeze-out line would take ~SEK 58B more, with the stock at 22x earnings and just below the family’s 2026 average cost.
KT&G (Korea: 033780) — KT&G is buying back and retiring another 2% of its shares for KRW 360B through December 22, but the bigger catalyst for a stock at 13x trailing earnings is a dividend-focused return policy due in Q4, set against trailing FCF of ~KRW 0.41T that fell short of dividends paid.
On Holding (US: ONON) — On authorized its first buyback, $1.0B through 2029 or 9.9% of its market cap, fully covered by ~$1.5B of cash, alongside 2029 targets that would nearly double adjusted EBITDA and put the ~$9.3B EV at about 6x 2029 EBITDA.
Rexford Industrial Realty (US: REXR) — Rexford closed its $1.2B sale of 22 buildings to EQT and is recycling the proceeds into buybacks and debt paydown, taking 2026 repurchases to ~$500M, about 6% of its market cap, with the stock at 16x Core FFO guidance and year-end leverage guided to 3.5x.
Thor Industries (US: THO) — Thor has ~$264M left on a buyback authorization expiring July 31, 2027, about 7% of its market cap, but fiscal 2026 FCF of ~$169M no longer covered the dividend plus buyback, and the stock’s 0.88x book multiple rests on $2.6B of goodwill and intangibles.
VEON (US: VEON) — VEON doubled its annual buyback to about $200M, roughly 4% of its market cap, and is already buying, with LetterOne selling pro rata and the stock at under 7x trailing equity FCF and about 4x EBITDA ahead of a November 16 Capital Markets Day.
Caesars Entertainment (US: CZR) — Holders approved Fertitta’s $31.00 cash buyout on September 22, leaving a ~5% spread ($1.39), about 7% annualized to a May 2027 end date, that now prices FTC Second Request timing, cushioned by a ticking fee from July 1, 2027 and a $450M reverse termination fee.
Global Lithium Resources (Australia: GL1) — Titan Lithium’s board-backed A$1.15 cash scheme carries no financing condition, yet sits 12% above the A$1.025 close with FIRB review of a private UAE buyer and a late-December vote ahead, while Titan’s A$120M construction loan would need refinancing if the deal breaks.
Ingenia Communities Group (Australia: INA) — The board rejected Warburg Pincus’s raised A$5.05 cash proposal, 10% above the A$4.58 close, to protect a Peet acquisition that needs no Ingenia securityholder vote, while the stock sits 25% above its pre-Warburg A$3.65 close, pricing roughly two-thirds odds on A$5.05.
InMode (US: INMD) — The CEO-led $16.20 cash proposal lapsed on September 15 without a deal, leaving a ~$14 stock backed by ~$8.70 a share of net cash and Steel Partners’ announced $16.75 bid for 100% as the higher public marker, 18% above the close.
Reliance Worldwide (Australia: RWC) — Brookfield’s binding US$3.38 cash scheme sits 4% above the A$4.59 close, about 7% annualized to a March 2027 implementation, with a go-shop open to October 16 and a US-dollar price that moves the Australian-dollar value about A$0.07 for each one-cent AUD/USD move.
UniFirst (US: UNF) — Cintas reaffirmed a close before the end of 2026 while the FTC Second Request runs, yet the $155 cash plus 0.7720 CTAS share offer, worth ~$303, sits 18% above the stock, a spread that prices real antitrust risk against a $350M reverse termination fee.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (US: ARI) — ARI holders vote September 29 on liquidating a mortgage REIT that has already sold its loan book, and the proxy guides to $7.75-8.50 per share in total distributions, 24-36% above the $6.26 close, with $3.70-4.00 paid in cash within about a month of approval.
City Developments Limited (Singapore: C09) — CDL unveils its Teneo-advised strategic review before the open on September 28, a dated test for a stock at 0.78x book with 75% net gearing, where Hong Leong Investment’s 49% control makes it a capital-allocation event rather than a sale.
Geox (Italy: GEO) — Controller LIR, at 71%, will turn any shortfall in the €60M recapitalization into a reserved share issue at €0.342, 19% above the close, adding about 88M shares, 24% of the count, as the board trims 2026 sales guidance to €540-545M.
Huckleberry.ai (US: HUCK) — The former Domo is now a debt-free shell with ~$220M of cash and more than $900M of NOLs after selling its business to Progress Software, trading 20% below cash per share with founder Josh James holding 76% of the vote and the capital allocation call.
Toro Corp. (US: TORO) — Toro spins off its two-ship LPG unit AI OKTO on an October 1 record date, one share per eight Toro shares, carrying $45M of cash and about $2.28 of pro forma book per Toro share, 40% of the $5.74 stock price, under the same 74% controller.
UWM Holdings (US: UWMC) — UWM’s $400M rights offering sets a $2.00 subscription floor 64% above the $1.22 close, so the Ishbia and Oaktree backstop will likely decide whether the money arrives as up to 200M new Class A shares or as junior preferred.
Victoria (UK: VCP) — Shareholders vote October 5 on a recapitalization that retires Koch’s ~£380M preferred and the 2028 notes but leaves leverage near 11x EBITDA and adds a CVR worth up to £270M ahead of ~£95M of pro forma equity, with the special resolutions needing 75% of votes cast.
Vivani Medical (US: VANI) — Vivani guides to an October close for the reverse merger of its Cortigent unit into ClearOne, which would leave it with a locked-up stake worth 39-48% of its ~$111M market cap, provided a $10-15M raise at $3.50 per unit prices first.
The deck is available to members (scroll up to download, or sign up below).
Featured Events
Latticework 2026 (REGISTER), Chicago, Illinois (Nov. 10-11, 2026)
Ideaweek 2027 (FULLY BOOKED), St. Moritz (Feb. 1-4, 2027)
The Zurich Project 2027 (COMING SOON) (Jun. 1-3, 2027)