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This is the twenty-first issue of This Week in Special Situations, our curated survey of actionable ideas. We do not attempt to profile every special situation. The universe of activist campaigns, buybacks, insider purchases, strategic reviews, and merger arbitrage spreads is vast, and most of it is noise. We filter for situations with a misaligned price or a noteworthy structural reason for market inefficiency.
Over time we will likely narrow this list further. That is where you come in. Please tell us which situations added value to your process and, just as importantly, which were of no consequence. Brutally honest feedback is the most valuable input we can receive. It will shape what we keep and what we cut. Our goal is to make this survey progressively more useful to you.
This week’s report (available as a slide deck) profiles 52 situations across four buckets: activist campaigns, capital return and insider conviction, M&A, and strategic alternatives. Below we highlight the handful that stand out on catalyst clarity, valuation, and asymmetry, followed by thesis summaries covering a broad cross-section of the report.
This publication is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The information is based on publicly available data and regulatory filings. Errors are not only possible but likely. Readers should conduct their own research.
The Situations That Stand Out
Coursera (US: COUR) trades at an EV of roughly $150M after Pale Fire Capital, whose chairman runs Groupon, took 14.7%, with ~$775M of cash and Treasuries and no funded debt covering 83% of the market cap. Pale Fire spent ~$31M on November 3-5 at $3.72-3.85, and it has reported no purchase below the $3.67 November 11 close. The board answered on November 7 with a rights plan that triggers at 15%, leaving Pale Fire about 0.3 point of headroom. It still files a passive 13G, so a campaign needs a 13D first; at Groupon, where it holds about 25%, Pale Fire chairman Dusan Senkypl joined the board. Coursera has ~$275M left on its buyback, 30% of the market cap. The stock fell 26% on Q3 results, and nominations for three board seats, including CEO Greg Hart’s, open January 11.