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This is the eighth issue of This Week in Special Situations, our curated survey of actionable ideas. We do not attempt to profile every special situation. The universe of activist campaigns, buybacks, insider purchases, strategic reviews, and merger arbitrage spreads is vast, and most of it is noise. We filter for situations with a misaligned price or a noteworthy structural reason for market inefficiency.
Over time we will likely narrow this list further. That is where you come in. Please tell us which situations added value to your process and, just as importantly, which were of no consequence. Brutally honest feedback is the most valuable input we can receive. It will shape what we keep and what we cut. Our goal is to make this survey progressively more useful to you.
This week’s report (available as a slide deck) profiles 42 situations across four buckets: activist campaigns, capital return and insider conviction, mergers and acquisitions, and strategic alternatives. Below we highlight the handful that stand out on catalyst clarity, valuation, and asymmetry, followed by thesis summaries covering a broad cross-section of the report.
This publication is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The information is based on publicly available data and regulatory filings. Errors are not only possible but likely. Readers should conduct their own research.
The Situations That Stand Out
A few of this week’s situations rise above the rest on the combination of catalyst clarity, valuation, and asymmetry.
Hilton Grand Vacations (US: HGV) trades at 9.5x forward earnings while an activist who has extracted a board seat before presses an annually elected nine-director board whose officers and directors own 3%. CAS Investment Partners filed a 13D on August 14, 2026 disclosing ~5.1M shares, 6.5% of the company, bought for $222M, converting a position held passively since February 2022; Item 4 has Clifford Sosin already in talks on board composition including his own nomination. His June 2023 Cardlytics 13D produced a cooperation agreement and a shareholder nominee inside three months. Apollo’s June secondary cut its stake 31% to 12.5 million shares, forcing David Sambur off the board on July 2 and leaving the second Apollo seat 528,000 shares from lapsing. H1 repurchases were $300M, taking the count to ~78M, but only $103M remains of the $600M authorization against guided buybacks of $150M a quarter. Nominations open January 6.
Abacus Global Management (US: ABX) has authorized a repurchase equal to 11% of its market cap at 9x guided adjusted earnings, and the accretion turns on whether the buying outruns an already approved incentive plan worth roughly 8% of shares. The August 13 authorization for $100M runs from August 17, 2026 through May 6, 2028 and by itself exceeds the $80M of cumulative authorizations granted since December 2023, all of it spent. Completing it requires about $5M per month, roughly 20% above the $24M deployed in H1 2026 at an average of $8.94 per share. Consolidated cash is $23M against $331M of debt, so execution leans on the $131M of H1 operating cash flow thrown off by the $383M, 622-contract policy portfolio. Insiders hold 46% and have only sold, including 196,000 CEO shares on August 12. Full execution retires about 11 million shares, worth roughly $0.12 on FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS of $1.02 against H1 GAAP EPS of $0.14.
Bread Financial Holdings (US: BFH) is retiring stock at 8x earnings and a 12% trailing earnings yield while credit improves, having shrunk the common count 12% in six months with 10% of the market cap still authorized. The board added $600 million on February 26, 2026, taking open-ended capacity to $765 million, and management spent $396 million in H1 retiring 4.8 million shares, with 1.5 million more cancelled on the capped call unwind, taking the count from 44.1 million to 38.7 million. Q2 EPS rose 21% to $3.55 and tangible book value per share rose 22% to $64, funded by $1.0 billion of H1 operating cash flow and deposit growth to $15 billion. Capital is the constraint, with CET1 at 13% as those repurchases and $24 million of dividends outran $328 million of H1 net income. Management cut full-year loss guidance by 30bp to about 7% at the July 23 results, and July losses then improved 80bp year over year.
i3 Verticals (US: IIIV) has retired a quarter of its Class A float in ten months and still holds $74M of authorization, 17% of the market cap, with the stock 27% below the $22.51 average repurchase price. After the September 2024 Merchant Services divestiture and the May 2025 Healthcare RCM sale the board has run four programs totaling $260M, adopting the current $100M program on May 12, 2026, which expires May 11, 2027 and had ~$74M unused at June 30. Class A shares fell from 24.0 million at September 30, 2025 to 18.0 million at August 6, 2026, with 6.1 million bought in nine months at $22.51 for $138M against roughly $30M of FCF, taking cash from $67M to $3M and the revolver from zero to $114M at 1.9x leverage. Management cut FY2026 revenue guidance to $216M-$221M and adjusted EBITDA to $57M-$60M on August 6, three months after CEO Greg Daily bought 50,000 shares at $19.23.
Pelagos Insurance Capital (US: PLGO) trades at 0.89x tangible book and 6x earnings after retiring 14% of its shares in six months at an average $19.51 against $26.56 of book value, clearing a founding private-equity holder’s entire remaining stake in the process. The board raised the authorization to $400M on February 20, 2026, and by June 30 the company had bought 14.3 million shares for $280M, cutting the count to 82.7 million with $139M left, about three months at the H1 pace. Buying below book added roughly $0.90 per diluted share for continuing holders, close to half the $1.95 H1 rise in book value per diluted share to $26.56. CVC’s final ~8.6M shares went at $19.00 in a privately negotiated repurchase announced March 2, and CVC waived its Principal Shareholder rights on May 7. Seller supply persists: Pine Brook and Travelers’ SPFM vehicle each cut to 7% during Q2, disclosed only in August.
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Quick Thesis Summaries
The capsule theses below cover a broad cross-section of this week’s issue. Each, along with additional special situations, is developed fully in the downloadable PDF slide deck.
Northern Star Resources (Australia: NST) — Elliott holds a 6% economic interest entirely through cash-settled swaps that carry no vote and has published six director candidates after the board rejected its demand that at least three of them join; FY26 underlying FCF fell 64% to A$190M on A$2.5B of capex ahead of a November 2026 AGM.
Birkenstock Holding (US: BIRK) — The company retired and cancelled 12.8 million shares from L Catterton’s exit block at ~$39, cutting the count 10%, and the stock at ~$36 trades 8% below that price after management raised guidance, leaving continuing holders a larger claim on the business at 15x earnings.
Vail Resorts (US: MTN) — Oasis owns 6% but remains parked on a passive 13G, and the bylaw window that decides whether this becomes a real proxy fight closes within three weeks, with the shares at 24x forward earnings and 12x EV/EBITDA and insiders holding only 1%.
Dentsu Soken (Japan: 4812) — Oasis Management disclosed a 5% stake with an explicit 12-month agenda covering delisting, capital policy and a third-party change of control, planting an activist inside a live parent-subsidiary take-private before Dentsu Group’s 62% block has even constituted a special committee.
UMH Properties (US: UMH) — Erez Asset Management’s 5% stake arrives with a sale demand and a claimed NAV of $21 to $24 per share against a ~$17 quote, but the founder-chaired board is classified, has said nothing publicly, and faces no shareholder vote of consequence until 2027.
Genco Shipping & Trading (US: GNK) — Diana Shipping walked away on August 14, 2026 after nine months and four escalating bids, leaving a 14% blockholder pinned beneath a 15% poison pill and a board that has publicly priced itself at $27.50 of cash NAV plus three Diana shares against a ~$26 quote.
QVC Group (US: QVCG) — GoldenTree has pushed its post-emergence stake to 17% by buying in the open market above plan value, and the reorganized charter waives Delaware’s Section 203 for the four creditor funds that together hold 75% of the equity, leaving that bloc free to run a sale, take-private or recapitalization at any time.
Toyota Motor (Japan: 7203) — The August 4, 2026 board resolution authorizes repurchases of up to 500 million shares capped at ¥1 trillion, and at ¥3,066 the yen cap binds first, limiting realized shrinkage to roughly 3% of shares rather than the headline 4%, on a stock at 8x earnings and 0.97x book.
Salesforce (US: CRM) — A $25B debt-funded accelerated repurchase has already retired 12% of the share count in a single quarter, but $1.3B of new annual interest cancels most of the per-share benefit and the final tally still hangs on an uncollared VWAP settlement, with the stock at 15x forward earnings.
Tenet Healthcare (US: THC) — Q2 2026 repurchases of 5.7 million shares for ~$1.0B at an average of ~$184 cut the count to 80.5 million, and $2.1B remains authorized, near 10% of the equity, with the stock now 46% above that execution price at 8x EV/EBITDA.
Gartner (US: IT) — Q2 2026 buybacks of 3.6 million shares for ~$550M at an average of ~$149 took the count to 64.4 million from 70.8 million at year-end 2025, and a July 30 board add-on leaves roughly $1.1B of capacity, about 9% of market cap, against 13x forward earnings.
Pearson (UK: PSON) — A second consecutive £350m buyback, completed early in May 2026 at an average 998p, retired about 35m shares and cut the ordinary count to 601m, a 5% reduction against a £7B market cap, with the stock at £12 on 16x forward earnings.
ADT (US: ADT) — The $1.5B three-year authorization has retired 12% of the share count in seven months at an average of ~$7, and the $885M still unspent equals 16% of the market cap, on a stock at 8x forward earnings and 5x EV/EBITDA against $13B of enterprise value.
FTI Consulting (US: FCN) — Management retired 8% of the share count in a single quarter at an average of ~$150, funded by a $265M increase in drawn debt, and the CEO bought 10,000 shares of his own six weeks earlier at ~$144, with the stock now at 17x forward earnings.
Wix.com (US: WIX) — The completed $1.6B Dutch auction retired 30% of the shares at $92.00, and the 41.8 million-share residual now trades at ~$78, or 8x the $420M of FY2026 FCF management guides to, with insiders holding 10%.
EQT Holdings (Australia: EQT) — TPG Global’s indicative A$24.55 cash scheme proposal leaves A$4.45 of spread at A$20.10, a 22% gross return underwritten entirely on how TPG diligences two ASIC civil penalty cases and the exit from the superannuation-trustee business.
Caesars Entertainment (US: CZR) — A signed, no-financing-condition $31.00 cash sale to Fertitta Entertainment trades 5% below the offer at ~$30, and the $34.00 Icahn alternative is now contractually dead rather than live, which reduces the position to a closing-timeline question on a $30B enterprise value.
Hugo Boss (Germany: BOSS) — Frasers converted a rejected €38 cash tender into a 48% stake without triggering a mandatory offer, and with the acceptance window now shut the €38 exit no longer exists for minority holders, who own a 12x earnings business alongside a blockholder that cannot be ignored.
Reliance Worldwide (Australia: RWC) — Brookfield’s fourth and highest cash proposal, A$4.75 per share, leaves an 8% gross spread at A$4.39, with the binding risk being deal formation rather than completion because no scheme has yet been signed, on a stock at 16x forward earnings.
easyJet (UK: EZJ) — Shares at £6.72 sit 6% below Apollo’s recommended £7.15 cash offer, roughly a 10% annualized return if the scheme becomes effective by the end of Q1 2027, with the residual gap pricing whether a leveraged buyout can keep the UK, Austrian and Swiss operator certificates compliant with airline ownership rules.
Cleanaway Waste Management (Australia: CWY) — A 20% gross spread at A$2.60 to EQT Infrastructure’s A$3.13 cash proposal prices bid-formation risk on a board-supported process that is not yet a signed scheme, against A$8B of enterprise value at 2x sales.
Steadfast Group (Australia: SDF) — At A$5.65 the shares leave A$0.35, a 6% gross spread, to the reconfirmed A$6.00 cash proposal from the Amwins, Dragoneer and KKR consortium, which now states that diligence is in its final stages and key commercial terms of the draft scheme implementation deed are substantially agreed.
SK hynix (Korea: 000660) — The largest treasury-share cancellation in Korean corporate history, ₩40 trillion struck 26% below the price at which the company itself sold new equity five weeks earlier, is management’s answer to a Solidigm carve-out that has already cost parent shareholders ₩123 trillion of market value, on a stock at 5x forward earnings.
MSGS Spinco (US: MSGR) — MSG Sports publicly filed the Form 10 on August 14 to spin the New York Rangers into MSG Rangers Corp., and at third-party franchise marks the two post-separation pieces are worth roughly $1,130 per two current shares against $807 of market value today.
Seritage Growth Properties (US: SRG) — Four years into a shareholder-approved plan of sale and dissolution, the stock at ~$2 sits 47% below the $3.94 per share of GAAP equity left after the preferred, and management has still disclosed neither a distribution range nor a dissolution date.
Costamare (US: CMRE) — The dry bulk separation is finished but the holding-company discount is not: the containership remainder trades at 0.8x book and 6x trailing earnings while the controlling family, at 62%, sells stock under Rule 144 and leaves a $150M repurchase authorization completely unused.
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