This Week in Special Situations
A survey of event-driven investment ideas
This Week in Special Situations is a research-based, data-driven slide presentation sent on a separate mailing list (complimentary to members). If you do not wish to receive it, opt out here.
We are trialing a new format: a curated selection of special situations. This is an experiment; we do not attempt to profile every special situation in the market. The universe of activist campaigns, buybacks, insider purchases, strategic reviews, and merger arbitrage spreads is vast, and most of it is noise. Instead, we filter for situations that strike us as actionable and potentially rewarding, where a a misaligned price or a structural mechanic gives an intelligent investor something concrete to underwrite.
Over time, we will likely narrow this list further. That is where you come in. Please let us know which situations were particularly value-added to your process and, just as importantly, which were of no consequence to you. Brutally honest feedback is the most valuable input we can receive. It will shape what we keep and what we cut. Our goal is to make this survey of ideas progressively more valuable to you.
This week’s report (available for download as a slide deck) profiles 26 situations across four buckets: activist campaigns, capital return and insider conviction, strategic alternatives, and mergers and acquisitions. Below we highlight the handful that seem most actionable and compelling, followed by quick thesis summaries on a broad cross-section of the report. Each idea, along with additional special situations not summarized here, is profiled in depth in the slide deck included below.
This publication is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The information is based on publicly available data and regulatory filings. No due diligence has been performed on the companies profiled. Errors are not only possible but likely. Readers should conduct their own research.
The Situations That Stand Out
A few of this week’s situations rise above the rest on the combination of catalyst clarity, valuation, and asymmetry.
Oasis Management’s escalating campaign at Kadokawa is the most interesting activist event in the issue. Oasis lost the June 24 CEO removal vote but raised its stake to 15.25% the next day, with stated intent to add more than 5% additional pending regulatory approval. The thesis is structural rather than personality-driven: Kadokawa cedes the global economics of FromSoftware’s IP (Elden Ring at 30M+ units sold, 90%+ of revenue from outside Japan) to Bandai Namco for overseas distribution, while EPS under the current CEO has fallen roughly 89% and ROE has compressed from 8.2% to 0.5%. A Japan Fair Trade Commission corrective order against the company in June adds governance ammunition. With the 2027 AGM in view and a credible activist actively buying, pressure intensifies rather than dissipates.
On deep-value capital return, Accenture stands out. The Board raised the FY26 repurchase program to $7.5 billion with all buybacks to complete by August 31, retiring 9.7% of the market cap in a single fiscal year. Total FY26 planned shareholder returns of $11.5 billion are up 38% year over year. The stock has fallen roughly 59% from its 52-week high, leaving it at 9.8x trailing and ~9.4x forward earnings against a 25-30x historical multiple. FY26 free cash flow guidance of $10.8-11.5 billion comfortably covers the buyback, and a fresh authorization for the remaining ~$1 billion of board capacity is expected in September. This is not a fashionable name today, which is precisely why the price embeds so much pessimism.
In strategic alternatives, Rayonier Advanced Materials offers the cleanest set-up. Morgan Stanley is running a formal review announced April 20, the board rejected an $11-12/share all-cash bid from American Industrial Partners in late 2025 at roughly a 100% premium to the then-price, and a 3% activist (Mill Pond Capital) sent a public letter on June 17 urging an outright sale and citing $55-60M of corporate overhead to strip out. The new CEO appointed June 22 has an inducement grant structured as leveraged performance units (0% vest below 25% stock growth, 250% at 100% growth), which works equally well in a sale outcome. The company’s $695M of net debt and seven straight years of losses are real, but the price already reflects them, and the board is on record describing the review as “well underway.”
Among merger arbitrage names, Cordel Group offers a hard-catalyst setup with the clearest near-term resolution. Vossloh’s recommended 12.4p all-cash scheme has Court and General Meetings on June 30 with 48.9% of shares locked under irrevocables (including 17.9% from directors). The gross spread at 11.9p is approximately 4.2%, expected to close over six to ten weeks; the only outstanding condition is UK NSIA clearance, with a long-stop of February 13, 2027. A German railway-infrastructure group acquiring a UK rail-digital-inspection technology company is a moderate, not severe, national-security profile, which is why the spread is tight but not zero.
Quick Thesis Summaries
The capsule theses below cover a broad cross-section of this week’s issue. Each, along with additional special situations, is developed fully in the member deck included below.
Kadokawa (Japan: 9468) — Oasis at 15.25% (up from 13.76%) with intent to add another 5%+ lost the June 24 CEO vote but is escalating into the 2027 AGM, anchored by the unmonetized global economics of FromSoftware’s IP.
Align Technology (US: ALGN) — Elliott has built a significant stake in the Invisalign maker, down 75% from its 2021 peak, trading at 14x forward earnings versus a historical multiple well above 20x with a clean balance sheet and 6% insider ownership.
Bunzl (UK: BNZL) — Elliott’s near-5% stake is demanding a 10% (~£850M) buyback and a North America strategic review; insider ownership of 2% removes any structural defense, with H1 2026 results the next read-through.
Seer (US: SEER) — The Radoff-JEC Group (7.7%) is contesting three board seats July 28 at a company whose $95M market cap implies a negative value for the Proteograph platform given roughly $171M of net cash on the balance sheet.
Central Plains Bancshares (US: CPBI) — Stilwell (9.7%) is pushing a board nominee and a formal 10%-of-shares buyback at a $79M Nebraska thrift trading at 0.8x book, with 79 prior bank activism positions skewing heavily to M&A exits.
Accenture (US: ACN) — A $7.5B FY26 buyback retires 9.7% of the cap in one fiscal year at 9-10x earnings, with a fresh ~$1B authorization expected in September.
Visteon (US: VC) — An $800M authorization equal to 26.9% of market cap through 2029, backed by ~$650-670M of excess cash; stock trades at 0.72x EV/Sales, the cheapest among major automotive electronics suppliers.
ICF International (US: ICFI) — A $400M total authorization with $165M of immediately available capacity (14% of market cap) at ~9.2x guided non-GAAP earnings; pace will be governed by 3.1x net leverage.
Orchid Island Capital (US: ORC) — A 16-fold expansion of buyback capacity to 13.3% of market cap at a 5.5% discount to estimated book value, mechanically accretive to NAV per share for a 20.4%-yielding Agency mortgage REIT.
SPS Commerce (US: SPSC) — Morgan Stanley formally retained to run a sale at a stock 61% off its high; a 30-40% takeout premium implies ~$2.6-2.9B, well within PE underwriting range given recurring revenue and 10x EV/EBITDA.
Rayonier Advanced Materials (US: RYAM) — Formal review, prior $11-12/share AIP bid rejected, new CEO with sale-aligned comp, activist letter, and Morgan Stanley engaged.
Bumble (US: BMBL) — Confirmed sale process via Morgan Stanley at 0.27x EV/Revenue and 0.9x EV/EBITDA; Blackstone at ~22% is incentivized to support exit.
Humm Group (Australia: HUM) — After Credit Corp’s bid collapsed, the company is exploring a breakup; the current A$0.46 price sits at a 20% discount to Abercrombie’s prior A$0.58 indication and 46% below consensus.
SEGRO (UK: SGRO) — Prologis’s 925p all-share indicative offer (24.6% premium) rejected; under Rule 2.6(a), Prologis must firm up or walk away by 5pm London on July 22.
easyJet (UK: EZJ) — Castlelake’s 650p fifth proposal rejected; board granted limited data access and extended PUSU to July 5, with major shareholders reportedly anchoring on a minimum of 700p.
Genco Shipping (US: GNK) — Diana Shipping’s hostile $24.80 tender expires today after three board rejections and a full board re-election; the realistic path is a higher negotiated deal, with analyst NAV at $26.66-$27.10.
Fnac Darty (France: FNAC) — EP Group’s recommended €36 (€35 ex-dividend) cash offer is live with EU merger control as the sole remaining gate; spread of approximately 4.2% at €34.55.
Pierre et Vacances (France: VAC) — Mubadala’s binding €1.90 offer (up to €2.00 with squeeze-out bonus) requires 80% commitment by July 17 or lapses; analyst targets at €2.30 frame the buyer as opportunistic.
Ramsdens (UK: RFX) — FirstCash subsidiary’s recommended 609p scheme is gated by FCA, CMA, and court approvals into H2 2026; ~1.4% spread to the 600p cash component (3% to 609p total) reflects board recommendation and FCA precedent.
Pharos Energy (UK: PHAR) — Ratio Petroleum’s recommended scheme at up to 28p with 41.76% irrevocables (including all directors); ~10% gross spread to the cash-plus-special-dividend component, gated by Vietnam and Egypt regulatory approvals into H1 2027.
Destination XL (US: DXLG) — Camac/Zodiac’s hostile $0.84 tender extended to July 24 after 16% of shares tendered; the stock at $0.65 prices in a 29% discount to the offer, with diligence access the gating item.
Cordel (UK: CRDL) — Vossloh’s recommended 12.4p scheme votes on June 30 with 48.9% irrevocable support; ~4.2% gross spread, NSIA clearance the sole open condition.
Melrose Industries (UK: MRO) — Post-Dowlais demerger, a pure-play GKN Aerospace targeting £5B revenue and £600M FCF by 2029; at 470p, ~15x 2025 earnings prices in supply-chain headwinds against a 2029 target implying ~70p+ EPS on a declining share count.
The full deck is included below. We look forward to your feedback.