Selected Special Situations
A survey of event-driven investment ideas
We are trialing a new format: a curated selection of special situations. This is an experiment; we do not attempt to profile every special situation in the market. The universe of activist campaigns, buybacks, insider purchases, strategic reviews, and merger arbitrage spreads is vast, and most of it is noise. Instead, we filter for situations that strike us as actionable and potentially rewarding, where a a misaligned price or a structural mechanic gives an intelligent investor something concrete to underwrite.
Over time, we will likely narrow this list further. That is where you come in. Please let us know which situations were particularly value-added to your process and, just as importantly, which were of no consequence to you. Brutally honest feedback is the most valuable input we can receive. It will shape what we keep and what we cut. Our goal is to make this survey of ideas progressively more valuable to you.
This report (available for download as a slide deck) profiles 36 situations across four buckets: activist campaigns, capital return and insider conviction, strategic alternatives, and mergers and acquisitions. Below we highlight the handful that seem most actionable and compelling, followed by quick thesis summaries on a broad cross-section of the report. Each idea, along with additional special situations not summarized here, is profiled in depth in the slide deck included below.
This publication is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The information is based on publicly available data and regulatory filings. No due diligence has been performed on the companies profiled. Errors are not only possible but likely. Readers should conduct their own research.
The Situations That Stand Out
A few situations rise above the rest on the combination of catalyst clarity, valuation, and asymmetry.
Elliott Management’s campaign at Northern Star Resources is a marquee activist event. Elliott has built a stake worth well over A$1 billion in Australia’s largest listed gold miner and is demanding a formal strategic review including a potential full sale, an external CEO, and board reconstitution. The board has already admitted it received multiple inbound approaches and that Goldman Sachs modeled alternatives, yet declined to act. With the stock at roughly 0.69x P/NAV against a senior peer average near 1.08x, the gap to peer parity is wide, and a credible activist is now forcing the question.
On the deep-value end of capital return, Dine Brands Global is noteworthy. The franchiser of Applebee’s and IHOP trades at roughly 10x forward earnings on normalized profitability, with $151 million of total repurchase capacity equal to about one-third of its market cap. The leverage is real and the secular pressure on casual dining is genuine, but the price embeds a great deal of pessimism, and management has cut its dividend specifically to redirect cash into buybacks.
Among merger arbitrage names, Tate & Lyle offers a clean, board-recommended setup. Ingredion’s all-cash deal at 595p plus up to 20p in dividends represents a 59% premium to the undisturbed price and roughly 11% upside from recent levels, with 17.1% of shares already locked under irrevocable undertakings. The principal variable is antitrust across eleven jurisdictions and a long completion horizon into H2 2027, which is precisely why the spread persists.
A fourth situation we find interesting is Steadfast Group. The board has endorsed a A$6.00 per share all-cash scheme from the Amwins and Dragoneer consortium, a 51.9% premium to the undisturbed price and the third and highest bid after two earlier proposals were rejected. The stock trades about 16% below the offer, a spread that reflects execution timing rather than fundamental doubt: eight weeks of due diligence are running, and the remaining gates are a binding scheme deed and antitrust clearance in Australia/NZ. With a motivated buyer that has already raised its bid twice and a board prepared to recommend, this is the kind of hard-catalyst arbitrage where the spread compensates for a defined and shrinking set of risks.
Quick Thesis Summaries
The following capsule theses cover a broad cross-section of this issue. Each is developed fully in the member deck.
Northern Star Resources (NST AX) – Elliott’s ~4% stake forces a strategic review at a gold miner trading at 0.7x P/NAV versus a 1.1x peer average, implying upside to parity if a process or sale results.
Bunzl (BNZL L) – Elliott’s near-5% stake demands an £800 million buyback and a North America review at a distributor yielding 9.5% on free cash flow after a punishing 2025 profit warning.
Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) – Not an activist play but an Apollo selldown overhang story; the company is repurchasing about 15% of its cap annually into Apollo’s supply at roughly 8.8x forward EV/EBITDA.
Salesforce (CRM) – A $25 billion accelerated repurchase, the largest in corporate history, retires nearly 20% of the cap at 11x forward earnings, though funded by $25 billion of new debt.
Baidu (BIDU) – A $5 billion buyback and first-ever dividend at 0.98x book, with roughly $24 to $26 billion of net cash against a $38 billion market cap; the catch is a slow actual deployment pace.
Coca-Cola Consolidated (COKE) – Retired about 22% of its shares by buying out The Coca-Cola Company’s entire stake, leaving the Harrison family in uncontested control with a sharply reduced float.
DaVita (DVA) – Shrunk diluted shares roughly 18% since early 2025, with Berkshire (about 45%) contractually selling pro-rata as the company buys, mechanically compressing the float.
Paycom Software (PAYC) – A $2.0 billion authorization equal to about a third of the market cap, at 8.3x forward earnings, financed with the company’s first balance-sheet debt as revenue growth decelerates.
Dropbox (DBX) – Retired 19% of diluted shares in a single year at roughly 9x forward earnings and 6.3x trailing free cash flow, partly debt-funded against a stabilizing revenue base.
AutoNation (AN) – A $1 billion authorization is collapsing the share count, with Cascade (Gates) at 21% and rising passively; the cyclical auto-retail backdrop is the key risk.
SLM / Sallie Mae (SLM) – Aggressive buybacks at a 7.3x forward multiple and 31% ROE, with the elimination of federal Grad PLUS loans opening a ~$5 billion private-origination opportunity from July 2026.
StoneCo (STNE) – A combined buyback and special dividend equal to roughly 35% of market cap in 2026, at 3.9x trailing earnings, following the Linx divestiture and a refocus on financial services.
TriMas (TRS) – The Aerospace divestiture left roughly $913 million of net cash and an enterprise value below the market cap, making capital allocation the central swing factor; a $150 million buyback is underway.
Donnelley Financial Solutions (DFIN) – Trades near 10x normalized earnings after a one-off pension charge distorted GAAP, with a $150 million buyback and a growing high-margin software mix.
Dine Brands Global (DIN) – 3.4x forward earnings with $151 million of repurchase capacity (about 36% of cap), offset by roughly $700 million of debt and secular casual-dining pressure.
Banqup Group (BANQ BR) – Hired Lazard to explore a sale of units or the group, with European e-invoicing mandates providing a regulatory tailwind; an event-driven, still-unprofitable situation.
ARC Resources (ARX TO) – Shell’s stock-and-cash deal at a headline C$32.80 has slipped to roughly C$30.25 as Shell shares fell, creating negative arbitrage at spot ahead of the July 14 vote.
Steadfast Group (SDF AX) – A board-endorsed A$6.00 cash scheme from Amwins and Dragoneer sits about 16% above the current price, a hard-catalyst arbitrage with eight weeks of due diligence running.
Tate & Lyle (TATE L) – Ingredion’s recommended 595p-plus-dividend cash deal offers about 11% upside at a 59% premium, gated by antitrust across eleven jurisdictions into H2 2027.
Fnac Darty (FNAC PA) – Kretinsky’s EUR35 ex-dividend offer leaves roughly 1.4% upside, with the only open item being EU merger clearance expected in H2 2026.
Andrew Peller (ADW-A TO) – Fairfax’s take-private at C$8 Class A and C$12 Class B has compressed spreads to under 1% and 2% respectively, with an unconditional Fairfax guarantee and a Q3 close.
Cordel Group (CRDL L) – Vossloh’s recommended 12.4p cash scheme offers a 4.2% spread closing over roughly 6 to 10 weeks, with 48.9% irrevocables locked and only NSIA clearance outstanding.
The full deck is included below. We look forward to your feedback.