Earnings Update: Extracting Signal from CEO/CFO Commentary
Insights and Ideas for Intelligent Investors
In this article we highlight key takeaways from selected recent earnings calls. We focus on companies of particular interest to value-oriented investors. The goal is to bring you surprising or potentially market-moving statements by management, often in response to analyst questions.
Before we delve into the specific earnings calls, a snapshot:
Business tilting up in spots despite mixed macro. Analog Devices (ADI) expects low‑to‑mid‑teens sequential growth in industrial during a quarter that is usually down seasonally. Lowe’s (LOW) cited sequential acceleration through Q2, with July comps +4.7%. TJX (TJX) posted 9% comp growth in Canada. Ross Stores (ROST) reported broad‑based sequential improvement aided by early back‑to‑school.
Inventory and supply remain pivotal swing factors. ADI said channels are “very lean” and it is undershipping real consumption, with pockets of supply‑limited demand in aerospace and defense. Estée Lauder (EL) indicated it has reduced inventory and expects the gap between shipments and retail sales to narrow.
Strategy resets accelerating. BHP Group (BHP) emphasized a pivot to organic growth (copper and potash). EL engaged external advisors to evaluate portfolio evolution toward highest‑return brands, suggesting M&A optionality. Target (TGT) announced a CEO transition, with incoming leadership emphasizing style and design. Lowe’s moved to scale its pro business with an $8.8 billion acquisition.
Cost, tariffs, and execution reshaping guidance and margins. Ross cut full‑year EPS on tariff headwinds. BJ’s Wholesale (BJ) flagged tariff mitigation actions that may limit upside relative to prior expectations. TJX delivered a margin beat, helped in part by lower‑than‑budgeted tariff costs. ZIM (ZIM) expects freight rates to be lower in the back half, reinforcing caution on global trade.
Capital allocation and governance are in focus. Lowe’s will pause buybacks until leverage returns to its target following the FBM acquisition. Walmart (WMT) has already repurchased $6+ billion YTD. Toll Brothers (TOL) maintained a plan for $600 million in repurchases this year. Medtronic (MDT) announced governance enhancements in an agremeent with Elliott Management.
New growth vectors—AI, devices, and mix shift—are building optionality. MDT highlighted ~50% growth in cardiac ablation solutions and framed renal denervation as a potentially transformational opportunity. ADI sees ~10× higher content in emerging humanoid robots versus today’s AMRs. Walmart said ~50% of incremental profit is now coming from higher‑margin ads, membership, and marketplace. Zoom (ZM) reported contact‑center wins displacing cloud competitors and raised FCF guidance, pointing to AI‑related monetization.
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Chris Bloomstran, President of Semper Augustus Investments Group
Tom Gayner, CEO of Markel and Director of The Coca-Cola Company
Saurabh Madaan, Managing Member of Manveen Asset Management
Scott Miller, Founder of Greenhaven Road Capital
Bob Robotti, President and CIO of Robotti & Company Advisors
Tom Russo, Managing Member of Gardner Russo & Quinn
Will Thomson, Managing Partner of Massif Capital
Christopher Tsai, President of Tsai Capital Corporation
Ed Wachenheim III, Chairman of Greenhaven Associates
Now, let’s highlight the most noteworthy CEO/CFO statements from each call.
Analog Devices (Nasdaq: ADI)
ir website | earnings release | transcript
Lean channel inventory indicating undershipping to market consumption. “Channel is very lean. We’re still undershipping real consumption…” —Vincent Roche, Chairman and CEO (Q&A)
Supply limited in aerospace and defense segment. “In aerospace and defense, we’re actually supply limited.” —Vincent Roche (Q&A)
Significant content increase in humanoid robots projected. “Our content in a humanoid robot is likely to be several thousands of dollars, that’s basically a 10x increase over the content in today’s cutting-edge AMRs [autonomous mobile robots].” —Vincent Roche (Q&A)
Industrial segment expected to grow low-to-mid teens sequentially in FQ4, a normally down quarter. “More recently, as we’ve talked about, the growth has accelerated, and our outlook for Q4, which is normally a seasonally down quarter for industrial, we expect it to grow in the low to mid-teens quarter over quarter. So very, very strong outlook there.” —Richard Puccio, CFO (Q&A)
Bottom line: After a strong FQ3, ADI’s high‑moat franchise is re‑accelerating and, at ~$252 per share, implies ~3% TTM FCF yield.
BHP Group (ASX: BHP)
M&A focus shifts entirely to organic growth. “M&A is challenging due to market circumstances, and our focus remains on organic growth, particularly in copper and potash. We are committed to delivering on our existing projects.” —Mike Henry, CEO
Management admits Jansen potash project is “frustrating and disappointing” due to cost escalation and productivity headwinds. “It’s not the standard that we hold ourselves to, so no getting around that... we’ve run into some productivity headwinds on the build out of the surface... and that’s been exacerbated by a particularly cold winter, this past winter... the pressures have just been greater than that, and so the sensible thing for us to do was to... bring forward this estimate for higher capex.” —Mike Henry (Q&A)
Decarbonization spending delayed to 2030s. “The pace of development for our decarbonization technology, particularly diesel displacement, has slowed. We now expect operational decarbonization spending to occur in the 2030s… however, we remain on track to meet our 2030 emissions target.” —Vandita Pant, CFO (Q&A)
Attractive capital intensity for Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO) expansion to 330 million tonnes. “In terms of WAIO going to 330 million tonnes per annum, the studies have told us that from an underlying capital intensity perspective, these are attractive tonnes – on both an outright basis and relative to greenfield projects – some of the other projects that are being built globally. Pretty low capital intensity to get to 330 million tonnes – a higher capital intensity than 305, but lower than other projects out there.” —Mike Henry (Q&A)
Bottom line: Despite a profit decline in FY25 due to lower commodity prices, BHP appears undervalued at ~$56 per ADR (EV/EBITDA of ~6.5x) while holding assets essential for the energy transition.
BJ’s Wholesale Club (NYSE: BJ)
Tariff strategy may limit growth upside. “We took a deep look at our buys for the back half, we repointed the country of origin where applicable, and then we right sized our orders to balance the impact on our business while still standing tall for our members. I’d be remiss if I did not call out that these decisions likely limit our upside versus original expectations for the year.” —Bob Eddy, Chairman and CEO (Q&A)
Membership growth is accelerating, hitting the 8 million member milestone faster than previous increments. “We were very pleased to tip over the 8 million member threshold this quarter. And we thought it was fun to look at how fast we achieved that versus hitting the last 500,000 number threshold, we achieved it a lot faster this time.” (Q&A) —Bob Eddy
Digital business represents “generational unlock” with 34% growth. “Our digital business continues to shine and represents a generational unlock for us as we deliver value to our members how and where they want. This business grew 34% during the quarter.” —Bob Eddy (Q&A)
Raised EPS guidance despite headwinds. “We are maintaining our guidance of comparable sales growth, excluding gas, to be in the range of 2% to 3.5% for the full year. We are also updating our adjusted earnings per share guide to be in the range of $4.20 to $4.35.” —Laura Felice, CFO (Q&A)
Bottom line: After a Q2 earnings beat driven by strong membership fee growth, BJ’s trades at a forward P/E of ~21.8x while steadily gaining market share in the resilient warehouse club channel.
Estée Lauder (NYSE: EL)
ir website | earnings release | transcript
Engaged bankers for potential portfolio restructuring. “We recently engaged an external advisor as we consider evolving the portfolio to best align with the strategic vision of Beauty Reimagined and focus on our highest-return opportunities over the medium to long term.” —Stephane de La Fabri, President and CEO (Q&A)
Inventory reduced in key markets, narrowing the gap between shipments and retail sales. “…we have reduced inventory, and we have brought it in a meaningful way to where we need it to be. …in travel retail, from where we see retail now, I think we are very much there. China, we have always kept lean inventory, and we are in a good place there. In North America, where – while we have reduced inventory, we still – because of the retail environment, we are just watchful of how we want to manage that. Going forward, we expect this gap to narrow.” —Akhil Shrivastava, CFO (Q&A)
$425 million impairment on key brands signals strategic shift. “In the fourth quarter, we also recorded $425 million of impairment charges relating to Dr. Jard+ and Too Faced. This reflects challenges in Mainland China and Korea for Dr. Jard+ and continued underperformance in key geographies and channels from Two Faced.” —Akhil Srivastava
Travel retail exposure dramatically reduced. “Travel retail represented approximately 15% of reported sales, down 4 percentage points from fiscal 2024 and 14 percentage points below its fiscal 2021 peak reached during the pandemic.” —Stephane de La Fabri
Bottom line: While FY25 results reflected operational challenges, this prestige beauty leader presents a turnaround opportunity, with shares trading at a forward P/E of 32.5x on depressed earnings.
Home Depot (NYSE: HD)
ir website | earnings release | transcript
Economic uncertainty delaying large projects more than rates. “Certainly some relief on mortgage rates in particular could help… a frozen housing market with 40+ year low turnover rates, and even new starts are straddling a bit. Lower rates would certainly help… When we talk generally to our customers — each of our sets of consumers and pros — the number one reason for deferring large projects is general economic uncertainty — that is larger than the prices of projects, of labor availability, all the various things we’ve talked about in the past. By a wide margin, economic uncertainty is number one.” —Ted Decker, Chairman and CEO (Q&A)
GMS acquisition creates large pro distribution network. “SRS [Distribution] will now have a network of more than 1,200 locations, a sales operation of over 3,500 associates and a fleet of nearly 8,000 trucks capable of making tens of thousands of job site deliveries per day.” —Ted Decker (Q&A)
Pro ecosystem gaining traction, with “millions of pro customers” but only “small single-digit thousands on trade credit,” indicating a large runway. “It’s still such early days with trade credit. We have millions of pro customers, and we literally have small single-digit thousands on trade credit. This virtuous cycle of this whole ecosystem… is gaining steam.” —Ted Decker (Q&A)
Investments prioritized for returns above cost of capital. “…when we find an investment that allows us to drive share capture and earnings growth, that drives a return higher than our cost of capital with a little bit of a margin of safety built in, we’re going to make that investment. You’ve seen us lean in to a variety of investments over the last five years. What might surprise you is that many of these investments are more capital-light and have a higher return profile than some of our more conventional investments.” —Richard McPhail, EVP & CFO (Q&A)
Bottom line: Q2 showed resilient profitability despite muted big‑ticket demand; at ~$413 per share, HD trades near 28× TTM P/E, a reasonable multiple for a scale retailer poised to benefit when housing activity re‑accelerates.
Hovnanian Enterprises (NYSE: HOV)
ir website | earnings release | slides
Strategic burn-through of less profitable land parcels. “We’ve made a strategic decision to burn through certain less profitable land parcels at lower gross margins that clear the way for our newer land acquisitions which meet our historical return metrics even after the big incentive.” —Ara Hovnanian, Chairman, President, and CEO (Q&A)
Record-high backlog conversion rate signals operational shift. “34% of our homes delivered in the quarter were contracted in the same quarter... It also resulted in a high backlog conversion ratio of 84% which is significantly higher than the third quarter average backlog conversion rate of 55% going all the way back to 1998.” —Ara Hovnanian (Q&A)
Entry-level housing market is the “tougher market” right now. “I’d say, generally, the entry level is the tougher market... It’s been a more challenging environment in the tertiary super low entry price points.” —Ara Hovnanian (Q&A)
Claims to be most undervalued stock among public homebuilders. “We have the fifth-highest EBIT ROI and yet our stock trades at the lowest multiple to earnings of the entire group… we believe our stock continues to be the most undervalued in the entire universe of public homebuilders… we are trading at a 31% discount to the homebuilding industry-average P/E ratio.” —Brad O’Connor, CFO (Q&A)
Bottom line: Despite a mixed Q3, HOV remains profitable and asset‑backed; at ~$146 per share, shares are only ~5× TTM P/E, a deep‑value setup if margins stabilize as rates ease.
Lowe’s (NYSE: LOW)
ir website | earnings release | transcript
Monthly sales acceleration through Q2 with strong July performance. “Monthly comps were down 1.0% in May, up 0.3% in June, and in July, we delivered positive transactions and comps up 4.7%. For the quarter, comparable average ticket increased 2.9% and comparable transactions declined 1.8%.” —Brandon Sink, CFO
$8.8 billion Foundation Building Materials acquisition unlocks $250 billion addressable market. “This acquisition represents a transformational move when it comes to advancing our Total Home strategy and enhancing long-term shareholder value. With the acquisition of FBM, we are strategically expanding our Pro offering to serve the Large Pro, especially their planned spend.” —Marvin Ellison, Chairman and CEO
Fast fulfillment. “…with this partnership with FBM, through our endless aisle technology, we literally can get that sale sent over to them electronically. They can pick it, fulfill it within 24 hours or less. And so it's all about the geography.” —Marvin Ellison (Q&A)
Share repurchases paused until debt leverage returns to target. “We expect… to de-lever quickly down to our target ratio by the end of the second quarter of 2027. We also plan to pause share repurchases until that time. We intend to maintain our solid investment grade credit ratings of BBB+ and Baa1. Our capital allocation priorities remain unchanged. We will continue to invest first in growth, to support our 35% dividend payout target, and return excess capital to shareholders through share repurchases.” —Brandon Sink
Bottom line: After a solid Q2, Lowe’s at ~$264 per share trades around 22× TTM P/E, reasonable in light of improving mix/pro penetration and consistent cash returns.
Medtronic (NYSE: MDT)
ir website | earnings release | slides
Partnership with Elliott Management creates new board structure. “Today, we have announced a series of governance enhancements that will help capitalize on the enormous opportunities in front of us and unlock the full extent of Medtronic’s potential. To start, we have appointed two new independent Board members – John Groetelaars and Bill Jellison – each of whom bring deep operational expertise in MedTech and fresh perspectives to the table.” —Geoffrey Martha, Chairman and CEO
Cardiac Ablation Solutions experiencing strong growth, with nearly 50% increase. “We achieved double digit growth in Cardiac Surgery, and ICDs [Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillators], and in Leadless Pacing. And critically, we reached nearly 50% growth in Cardiac Ablation Solutions on the rollout of our PFA systems.” —Geoffrey Martha
Management refutes competitor’s market share claim in Japan for Cardiac Ablation Solutions. “I was just in Japan the week before last... we’re the #1 market share. And Affera’s approved but not even launched there. This is on PulseSelect. And I know our competitor highlighted that they felt they were the #1, talked about how many cases they’ve done. We’ve done meaningfully more in Japan, and I know we’re the #1 there.” —Geoffrey Martha (Q&A)
Renal denervation poised to become transformational growth driver. “I still think Ardian has a chance to even be bigger [than CAS]. The patient population is massive... 18 million that are uncontrolled hypertension. And so we think this is going to be a — could be the biggest thing that we ever do.” —Geoffrey Martha (Q&A)
Bottom line: Q1 FY26 beat with raised EPS guidance underscores steady execution; at ~$93 per share, MDT is ~16-17× forward P/E, a defensive med‑tech franchise at a below‑market multiple, despite activist involvement.
Ross Stores (Nasdaq: ROST)
Sequential improvement in sales trends, with strong back-to-school sales. “We are encouraged by the sequential improvement in sales trends relative to the first quarter. This improvement was broad-based with a positive change in trend in nearly all major merchandise categories and most of the regions across the company... We were pleased to see the improved trend at the end of the quarter, particularly with the early sales performance related to the back-to-school selling season.” —James Conroy, CEO
Full-year EPS guidance lowered due to tariff headwinds. “If the second half of 2025 performs in line with these projections, earnings per share for the full year are now forecast to be in the range of $6.08 to $6.21 versus $6.32 last year. For fiscal 2025, we anticipate an approximate $0.22 to $0.25 per-share impact from announced trade policies.” —Adam Orvos, CFO
Management “very cautious” about raising prices despite industry-wide inflation and tariff pressures. “We’re going to be very cautious about our changes in AUR [Average Unit Retail] going forward. The Ross brand depends on being the best bargains in the market, and we’ll -- we’re going to be looking at our direct competitors and sort of the broader retail landscape to see movement before we make any significant changes in AUR.” —James Conroy (Q&A)
Off-price retail positioned to benefit from industry disruption. “The off-price sector has historically benefited from disruptions within the supply chain and the retail industry. We believe this time will be no different... We strongly believe this strengthens our competitive position to capture market share over the balance of the year.” —James Conroy (Q&A)
Strong buyback activity continues. “[In Q2] we repurchased 1.9 million shares of common stock for an aggregate cost of $262 million. …we remain on track to buy back a total of $1.05 billion in stock for the year.” —Adam Orvos
Bottom line: Q2 results confirm off‑price resilience; at ~$147 per share, ROST trades near 23× TTM P/E, sensible for a cash‑rich, mid‑single‑digit comp story.
Target (NYSE: TGT)
ir website | earnings release | transcript
COO Michael Fiddelke to become CEO. “I share Michael’s passion and urgency to accelerate our performance and build new momentum in our business. Results over the last few years have fallen short of our expectations and our potential. That’s why Michael has been engaging the entire leadership team in an effort to refocus our strategy and assess how we’re functioning as an organization and provide the launch pad to reestablish Target as a premier leader in retail.” —Brian Cornell, outgoing CEO
Incoming CEO making design the “North Star” for growth. “Having seen us at our very best in different chapters gives me a clear focus on who we are in retail and what our unique path is that's going to lead to growth. And it centers on style and design.” —Michael Fiddelke, COO (incoming CEO) (Q&A)
Majority of tariff impact absorbed in Q2. “The vast majority of that hit us in Q2. So you won’t see significant portions of that going forward.” —Jim Lee, CFO (Q&A)
Trading card sales projected to exceed $1 billion. “As a result of doubling down on this assortment, trading card sales are up nearly 70% year-to-date, driving hundreds of millions of dollars of incremental sales, making us a top market share player in this category and putting trading cards on track to deliver more than $1 billion in sales this year.” —Rick Gomez (Q&A)
Expanding a test to specialize stores for either in-store experience or digital fulfillment. “We've been pleased with what we've seen in that test, both on the digital fulfillment side and especially on the store experience side. And so you'll see us take those learnings and apply them to somewhere between 30 and 40 more markets before the year is out.” —Michael Fiddelke (Q&A)
Bottom line: Following a difficult Q2 that showed declining comp sales, Target’s stock, at ~$99 per share, has been de-rated to a TTM P/E of 11.6x, attractive if management’s acceleration initiatives can return the company to growth.
TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX)
Record margin performance beats internal plans. “Our second quarter pre-tax profit margin came in 90 basis points above the high end of our plan. This was due to a combination of items, including lower than expected tariff costs, expense leverage on above-plan sales, and the timing of certain expenses.” —John Klinger, CFO
Canada delivering 9% comp growth. “TJX Canada’s comp sales increased an outstanding 9%. Segment profit margin on a constant currency basis grew to a very strong 16%, up 100 basis points versus last year.” —John Klinger
Expected bottom-line flow-through from comp sales. “For every point in comp, we would expect to get 10 to 20 basis points on the bottom line, and that’s we feel that going forward, that’s what you should model.” —Ernie Herrman, CEO (Q&A)
Customer value perception improving. “Our customer surveys tell us that our value perception remains strong, and we are laser-focused on keeping it that way. Product availability has been outstanding. …if anything, our perception on value of our customers has improved over the last couple of years.” —John Klinger (Q&A)
Bottom line: With Q2 FY26 comps +4% and raised guidance, TJX at ~$137 per share carries a ~31× TTM P/E, reflecting category leadership and counter‑cyclical durability.
Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL)
ir website | earnings release | slides | transcript
Record revenues but narrower margins. “We achieved record third-quarter revenue, though our adjusted home sales gross margin of 27.5% was down from 30.8% a year ago due to higher incentives and input costs.” —Martin Connor, outgoing CFO
Spec strategy transformed from 10-15% to 50% of business. “The margin delta between spec [speculative build, i.e., without a specific buyer lined up] and build-to-order is consistent with what we’ve been talking about for the last few quarters… We’re really pleased that the build-to-order side of the business has gone up to north of 30%… There’s tremendous capital efficiency that is brought to us by the spec business.” —Doug Yearley, Chairman and CEO (Q&A)
Build costs beginning to decline. “We’re just beginning to see trades negotiate a bit more… We're out in the market for some major material, supply renewals, and we're making some progress there on good pricing. It's community and market specific but – and it's moderate, but building costs are beginning to come down across the board.” —Doug Yearley (Q&A)
Expecting 20 to 30 new community openings in FQ4, signaling significant growth heading into FY26. “We are very excited by the community count growth we will see next year. In fact, we are expecting 20 to 30 openings in Q4... We are positioning ourselves with the communities that are opening and with the business we have to set up for next year.” —Doug Yearley (Q&A)
Stepped-up capital returns. “We paid a dividend of $24 million and repurchased $201 million of common stock at an average price of $112. We continue to project $600 million of share repurchases for the full year.” —Gregg Ziegler, Treasurer (incoming CFO)
Bottom line: Record Q3 revenue and growing book value support the case that, at ~$139 per share and ~10× TTM P/E, TOL still discounts a housing downturn more than fundamentals warrant.
Walmart (NYSE: WMT)
ir website | earnings release | slides | transcript
High-margin businesses driving half of incremental profit. “50% of our incremental profit, excluding claims, was related to advertising, membership and marketplace. …it’s pretty rare to find a company of our size with a roughly $700 billion revenue base that is growing organically 5% to 6% each period… And if you look at the contribution to that growth, it's primarily e-commerce.” —John David Rainey, CFO (Q&A)
Fast delivery coverage. “I’m excited about what the team has done to lean into speed. We’re now covering 93% of the country in under three hours. We think that will be 95% by the end of the year.” —John Furner, CEO - Walmart U.S. (Q&A)
Stepped-up share buybacks. “Year-to-date, we’ve bought back over $6 billion of our shares, and that’s 50% more than we did all of last year. …as the market dislocated a little bit with some of the concerns around tariffs earlier in the year, we were more aggressive, and we’ll continue to be aggressive buyers of our stock when we see prices dislocate.” —John David Rainey (Q&A)
Bottom line: Walmart leveraged scale to deliver strong Q2 results and raise its full-year outlook. At ~$97 per share the stock offers defensive growth at a reasonable price, with a forward P/E of ~25x.
ZIM Integrated Shipping (NYSE: ZIM)
ir website | earnings release | slides
Freight rates in slump. “We… note the continued high degree of uncertainty related to global trade and the geopolitical environment. We expect freight rates on a full year basis to be significantly lower… with average freight rates in the remainder of 2025 lower than the first-half average.” —Xavier Destriau, CFO
50,000 TEU (Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit) volume impact from tariffs. “We still believe we are going to hopefully come back to higher volume sequentially. So Q2 has been a little bit of a weaker quarter from that perspective. For the reasons we talked about and the reshuffling of our capacity as a result of the change in the US tariff discussions between the US and China, that impacted us, give or take, 50,000 TEUs.” —Xavier Destriau (Q&A)
Traditional supply-demand indicators failing. “The supply-demand balance previously used as an indicator for market expectations appears to be a less effective predictor.” —Xavier Destriau
Bottom line: Following a Q2 earnings miss and a dividend cut that reflects collapsing freight rates, ZIM at ~$14 per share represents a deep value play on a cyclical recovery, trading at a mere 0.44x of tangible book value.
Zoom (Nasdaq: ZM)
ir website | earnings release | slides
AI opportunity. “AI adoption now extends well beyond meeting summaries, with strong momentum in meeting prep and post meeting task management… Our broadening AI adoption is also translating into greater customer investment…” —Eric Yuan, CEO
Record Contact Center growth displacing cloud competitors. “Our top 10 contact center deals were all displacements of leading competitors, and all but one were cloud displacements... The fact that you’re winning contact center deals against other cloud providers is very surprising, not for anything other than the fact that there are so many on-prem to cloud migrations that are happening.” —Eric Yuan (Q&A)
Raised full-year guidance for revenue and FCF. “With the strength in FCF in the first half and increased outlook for operating income in FY26, we now expect FCF to be in the range of $1.74 to $1.78 billion for the full year.” —Michelle Chang, CFO
Bottom line: After beating Q2 FY26 estimates and raising guidance, Zoom has transformed into a value stock, trading at an attractive price to TTM FCF multiple of ~13.5x, backed by a fortress balance sheet with $7+ billion in net cash.
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