This page carries the disclosures for Latticework Business Intelligence and the register of our recommendations. It is free to read. Every report, one-page summary, post and slide deck that carries one of our ratings points here, and the disclosures specific to each recommendation are added below as it is published.
Who produces our research. Latticework Business Intelligence is produced by MOI Global, 8700 Küsnacht ZH, Switzerland, which publishes as “Latticework by MOI Global.” The natural person responsible for producing it is John Mihaljevic, Founder of MOI Global. The research and drafting are carried out with the assistance of AI tools working under written rules set by the person named above, who directs the work, reviews the text and is responsible for its content. John Mihaljevic is a CFA charterholder and is subject to the CFA Institute Code of Ethics and Standards of Professional Conduct. Neither MOI Global nor any affiliate is authorized or registered as an investment adviser, broker-dealer or investment firm in any jurisdiction.
What our ratings mean. Our rating compares the total return we expect from a company’s shares with the total return we expect from a market index over the next three to five years. The index is the S&P 500 total return index in U.S. dollars unless a report names another.
Long-Term Overweight: we expect the shares’ annualized total return over the next three to five years to exceed the index’s by more than 2 percentage points a year.
Long-Term Neutral: we expect the two to be within 2 percentage points a year of each other, either way.
Long-Term Underweight: we expect the shares’ annualized total return to fall short of the index’s by more than 2 percentage points a year.
The rating is a relative call. A Long-Term Overweight share can lose money if the index falls, and a Long-Term Underweight share can rise. The rating is not a price target, and we do not set one. The horizon is three to five years because our work values businesses, not quarters: it rests on the cash a business will earn over years, and a rating says nothing about the next quarter.
How we set a rating.
The valuation. We value the business with a discounted cash flow model, run thousands of times with inputs drawn from ranges the evidence supports. Every cash flow is discounted at a fixed 10%, the return an owner requires, with 8% and 11% shown beside it. The result is an intrinsic value range per share, the middle half of the outcomes at 10%. It is our estimate of business value on stated assumptions, not a forecast of where the shares will trade.
The model. Our models are built by AI research agents working without access to the share price. The person responsible reviews them and sets the final assumptions before publication.
Then the market. We then look at the market: what peers trade for, what acquirers have paid in comparable transactions, and the share price at a stated reference time. These comparisons are a cross-check; they do not change the value range, and they express no view on the value of any peer.
The expected return. We compute the shares’ expected annualized total return as (1.10) × (V / P)^(1/4) − 1, where V is the median value per share at 10%, P the reference price, and 1/4 assumes the gap between price and value closes over four years, the middle of our horizon.
The index return. We estimate it as the index’s dividend yield plus its net buyback yield plus long-run nominal earnings growth, at a constant multiple.
The rating. The difference between the two expected returns sets the rating. Each report states both, their inputs and sources, and the same test over three and five years.
Both expected returns are estimates for the rating’s test, not forecasts. They assume different things (the shares’ price converges to our value, the index’s multiple stays where it is), and either assumption can fail.
Prices, dates and times. Each recommendation states its reference price with the date, time and source of that price, the date and time the report was completed, and the date and time it was first disseminated, in U.S. Eastern Time.
How often we update. We publish a note when the evidence changes, and we revalue only when the evidence moves an input outside its range: a note within a day of each quarterly result, a note after investor days and material events, and a full revaluation when one of a report’s stated kill criteria trips. Each quarterly note restates the rating against a new reference price. Between notes, a rating is not reset for share price moves alone, so it may be out of date if the price has moved. We may stop covering a company at any time; if we do, we will say so in a note.
Register of our recommendations. The table below lists every recommendation we have disseminated over the past twelve months: the date and time first disseminated, the issuer and instrument, the persons responsible, the rating, the price target (we set none), the intrinsic value range at 10%, the reference price and its time, and the validity. When a recommendation differs from one we made in the preceding twelve months, it says what changed and gives the date of the earlier one. No other MOI Global publication carries investment recommendations.
Date and time first disseminated: Oct. 14, 2026, 6:20 a.m. ET; Issuer and instrument: Lennar Corporation, Class A (LEN), with Class B (LEN.B) named and not separately rated; Persons responsible: John Mihaljevic, Founder, MOI Global; Rating: Long-Term Overweight; Price target: None; Intrinsic value range (10%): $112.93–$148.86; Reference price and time: $74.92, official close, 4:00 p.m. ET, Oct. 13, 2026; Validity: Three to five years, or until changed in a note
Date and time first disseminated: Oct. 2, 2026, 8:10 a.m. ET; Issuer and instrument: Nike, Inc., Class B (NKE); Persons responsible: John Mihaljevic, Founder, MOI Global; Rating: Long-Term Overweight; Price target: None; Intrinsic value range (10%): $43.99–$51.27; Reference price and time: $31.50, pre-market quote, 5:13 a.m. ET, Oct. 2, 2026; Validity: Three to five years, or until changed in a note
Distribution of our ratings. Long-Term Overweight: 2 (100%); Long-Term Neutral: 0 (0%); Long-Term Underweight: 0 (0%). We have supplied investment banking or other investment services to none of the issuers we cover. This section is updated with each recommendation.
Conflicts of interest and holdings.
Holdings. Each recommendation states whether MOI Global, the persons responsible and any company they control hold shares, options or other derivatives of the issuer, long or short, at the time of first dissemination.
Market roles. MOI Global is not a market maker or liquidity provider in any security, has not led or co-led any offer of securities, and does not provide investment services to the issuers it covers.
Pay. Contributors are paid a salary. No one’s pay depends on a rating or a value range, or on how any share performs.
Trading policy. The persons responsible and MOI Global do not trade in an issuer’s securities from the start of work on a report until ten trading days after its first dissemination, and do not trade against a current rating. Any exception will be disclosed in the next note.
Certification. The views in each report are the views of the persons named above. No part of their pay was, is or will be related to the specific rating or views in it.
Independence from issuers. Our research is not commissioned or paid for, in full or in part, by the issuers we cover or by any underwriter or dealer of their securities. Reports are not shown to issuers before publication.
What kind of publication this is. Latticework Business Intelligence is a financial publication issued on a regular schedule to the public: free and paid subscribers worldwide. It offers the same content to every reader. It is impersonal research: it does not take into account any reader’s objectives, financial situation or needs, and it is not personal investment advice, an offer to buy or sell any security, or a solicitation of one. Readers should consider whether any investment suits their own circumstances, and seek advice from a professional adviser where appropriate. We do not manage money, execute trades or provide personalized advice to subscribers.
Where our research is not intended to be used.
Restricted jurisdictions. Our research is not directed at, and is not intended for distribution to or use by, any person in a jurisdiction where its distribution would require MOI Global to be licensed or registered, or would be unlawful; in particular, it is not intended for persons in Australia, Hong Kong or Singapore.
UK readers. In the United Kingdom, our research is published by a person that is not authorized by the Financial Conduct Authority. The protections of the UK regulatory system for authorized firms do not apply.
General advice. For readers who receive it despite these restrictions, any advice in it is general. It does not consider the reader’s objectives, financial situation or needs, and readers should consider its appropriateness to them before acting on it.
Forward-looking statements and past performance. Our reports contain forward-looking statements, including forecasts, estimates of value and expected returns. They rest on assumptions that may prove wrong, and actual results will differ, possibly by a wide margin. Past performance of any company, of its shares or of an index is not a reliable indicator of future results. Figures are believed accurate as of the dates stated but are not warranted. Nothing in our research is legal, tax or accounting advice.
Trademarks and copyright. S&P 500 is a trademark of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC; we use the index’s name and published characteristics only as a benchmark. Company names and marks belong to their owners, and our research is not endorsed by any issuer or index provider. © 2026 MOI Global. Anyone who shares, quotes or summarizes a rating or a value range must keep the rating, the value range, the reference price with its date and time, and a link to this page together, and must not alter them.
For professional investors. MOI Global is not engaged in execution services and is not part of a financial services group that includes an investment firm offering execution or brokerage services. The research is sold only by subscription, at published prices, and is not paid for by any issuer; free posts and slide decks are openly available to the public. For FINRA members distributing it: MOI Global has no affiliation or business or contractual relationship with any broker-dealer that is reasonably likely to inform the content of its research, and it decides the content without input from any distributor.
Lennar Corporation (NYSE: LEN): initiation of coverage, October 14, 2026
F.1 Who produced this report
This report is an investment recommendation on Lennar Corporation (NYSE: LEN; LEN.B), produced by MOI Global, 8700 Küsnacht ZH, Switzerland, which publishes as “Latticework by MOI Global.” The natural person responsible for producing it is John Mihaljevic, Founder of MOI Global. The research and drafting were carried out with the assistance of AI tools working under written rules set by the person named above, who directed the work, reviewed the text and is responsible for its content. John Mihaljevic is a CFA charterholder and is subject to the CFA Institute Code of Ethics and Standards of Professional Conduct. Neither MOI Global nor any affiliate is authorized or registered as an investment adviser, broker-dealer or investment firm in any jurisdiction.
F.2 What the rating means
Our rating compares the total return we expect from the shares with the total return we expect from a market index over the next three to five years. The index is the S&P 500 total return index in U.S. dollars unless a report names another.
Long-Term Overweight: we expect the shares’ annualized total return over the next three to five years to exceed the index’s by more than 2 percentage points a year.
Long-Term Neutral: we expect the two to be within 2 percentage points a year of each other, either way.
Long-Term Underweight: we expect the shares’ annualized total return to fall short of the index’s by more than 2 percentage points a year.
The rating is a relative call. A Long-Term Overweight share can lose money if the index falls, and a Long-Term Underweight share can rise. The rating is not a price target, and we do not set one. The horizon is three to five years because the valuation rests on a recovery in Lennar’s gross margin on home sales as incentives fall, which the base case completes in FY2031, about five years out (chapter 43). The rating says nothing about the next quarter.
Lennar Corporation (NYSE: LEN, Class A common stock, ISIN US5260571048): Long-Term Overweight against the S&P 500 total return index in U.S. dollars (F.3 and F.4).
The two classes. Lennar has two classes of common stock, both listed on the New York Stock Exchange: Class A (LEN), with one vote a share, and Class B (NYSE: LEN.B, ISIN US5260573028), with ten. Its charter pays every dividend or distribution “without regard to class” and gives the two classes “identical powers, preferences and rights, including rights in liquidation” (Restated Certificate of Incorporation, filed in Delaware on January 16, 2015, Article IV(b) and (d)). The report therefore gives one intrinsic value per share for both classes, and this recommendation concerns both. We set the rating and its reference price on the Class A shares. We state no separate rating for the Class B shares: their price can differ from the Class A price, so the test in F.3, run on a Class B price, could give a different result.
F.3 How we set it
The valuation. Part XII values Lennar’s business with a discounted cash flow model: a full forecast to FY2031, free cash flow to FY2036 and a terminal value, run 20,000 times with the inputs that carry the debates drawn from ranges the evidence supports (Table 44.3). We discount every cash flow at a fixed 10% and show 8% and 11% beside it. The result is an intrinsic value range of $112.93 to $148.86 per share at 10%, the middle half of the outcomes, for a share of either class. The median is $130.67. This range is our estimate of business value on stated assumptions, not a forecast of where the shares will trade. Its material assumptions are in chapters 43 and 44, and the method is in Appendix E. The model is our own, and the Excel workbook comes with the paid report. Its valuation sheets contain no share price; the market data sit on a separate sheet that the valuation does not read.
The model. Our models are built by AI research agents working without access to the share price. The person responsible reviews them and sets the final assumptions before publication.
The market. We then set the value beside the market. We compare the value range with the trading multiples of our valuation peer group, the Large U.S. Homebuilders (D.R. Horton, PulteGroup, Toll Brothers, NVR, Meritage Homes and KB Home), with each peer’s last-twelve-months EBIT and EBITDA adjusted for the non-recurring items it names in its own earnings releases, on the same basis as Lennar’s, and stock-based pay kept as a cost; M/I Homes, Dream Finders Homes and Century Communities are shown for reference only. We also compare it with precedent control transactions in homebuilding: the eleven completed acquisitions of public U.S. homebuilders announced in the current cycle (WCI Communities, 2016; UCP and CalAtlantic Group, 2017; AV Homes, 2018; William Lyon Homes, 2019; The New Home Company, 2021; M.D.C. Holdings, 2024; Landsea Homes, 2025; Tri Pointe Homes, United Homes Group and Taylor Morrison, 2026). Six deals of the earlier cycle, from 2000 to 2009, are shown but excluded, as are the 2015 combination of Ryland and Standard Pacific (a merger of equals, with no control premium), Lennar’s own purchase of the private Rausch Coleman Homes (2024) and Dream Finders’ acquisition of Beazer Homes (2026, still pending). Exhibits EX-60 and EX-61 in chapter 46 show each of them, and Exhibit EX-62 sets their ranges beside our value range and the reference price. These comparisons are a cross-check. They are not inputs to the value range, and they express no view on the value of any peer.
The expected return. We compute the shares’ expected annualized total return as
(1.10) × (V / P)^(1/4) − 1
where V is the median value per share at 10% ($130.67), P is the reference price in F.5, and 1/4 assumes the gap between price and value closes over four years, the middle of our horizon. At the reference price this gives 26.41% a year.
The index return. We estimate it as the index’s dividend yield (1.00%) plus its net buyback yield (1.41%) plus long-run nominal earnings growth (5%), at a constant multiple: 7.41% a year. The two yields are computed bottom-up from the index’s constituents: trailing dividends, and the last four quarters of repurchases less issuance, over market capitalization at the October 13, 2026 close (Yahoo Finance, retrieved October 13, 2026, between 4:23 and 4:27 p.m. ET). The 5% growth is our assumption.
The rating. The difference between the two is +19.00 percentage points a year, against the threshold of 2 points either way that sets the rating in F.2. Closed over three and five years instead of four, the gap gives 32.41% and 22.94% a year, or +25.00 and +15.53 points, so the rating does not change within the horizon.
This is our first recommendation on Lennar, so there is no earlier version for this issuer to compare it with. The method is the one described on the free disclosures page. We will list any later change to the method, the assumptions or the value range here and in the note that makes it.
F.4 What would change the rating, and the main risks
Sensitivity to value and price. The rating depends on the ratio of value to price. At the reference price, every 10% change in that ratio moves the expected return by roughly 3 percentage points a year. The thresholds lie 4 points apart; the prices at which the rating would turn Long-Term Neutral and Long-Term Underweight, about $133.51 and $154.96, are about 16% apart.
The rating would be Long-Term Neutral only at a reference price above about $133.51, 78% above $74.92, or at a median value below about $73.33, 44% below $130.67; it would become Long-Term Underweight only at a price above about $154.96.
At the ends of the value range at 10% ($112.93 and $148.86), the expected return would be 21.88% and 30.60%, both Long-Term Overweight.
At 8% and at 11% (medians $185.87 and $113.65), with the matching rate in place of 10% in the formula (1.08 and 1.11), it would be 35.54% and 23.19%, both Long-Term Overweight.
An index return 1 point higher or lower moves the gap by 1 point. On S&P Dow Jones Indices’ gross buyback yield of 1.79% (twelve months to September 2025, preliminary, from its release of December 18, 2025, the latest we could retrieve) in place of our net yield, the index return would be 7.79% and the gap +18.62 points, still Long-Term Overweight. Our method uses the net yield, because the shares companies issue offset part of what they buy back.
What moves the inputs. The steady-state EBIT margin moves the value most: $45.37 a share between its 10th and 90th percentiles. Each point of steady-state margin is worth $10.62 a share at 10%. Revenue growth moves the value by $30.49 a share and the timing of the margin’s recovery by $15.86. Exhibit EX-57 and Table 44.3 in chapter 44 give the full ranking. The discount rate moves the value more than any input. At 8% the median rises to $185.87; at 11% it falls to $113.65. The bear and bull cases are worth $84.68 and $192.43 a share (chapter 45).
What the range leaves out. The engine has no downturn draw: a deep bust enters only as a delay to the margin’s recovery. It has no through-cycle factor, so the terminal value capitalizes a mid-cycle margin with no allowance for the busts after FY2036. Both leave the range higher than a full-cycle owner should expect. Section 44.5 describes the two gaps, and chapter 45 sizes the second.
The main risks are set out in Part XIII (chapter 47):
incentives that stay high while land carry stays in the gross margin;
a downturn that reaches the land banks before the margin recovers, through the option deposits, Millrose’s termination terms and Lennar’s guaranty of the payments due to Millrose;
capital returned faster than operations produce cash;
demand and mortgage rates, labor, tariffs and policy;
governance and succession, with voting power concentrated in the Miller family’s Class B shares (Part XI).
Part I (chapter 3) sets out five kill criteria that would force a revaluation, and chapter 48 gives the dates their readings arrive.
The value range reflects our judgments, not a statistical confidence interval. Outcomes outside it are possible. Investing in shares can lose money, and the index can fall.
F.5 Prices, dates and times
All times are U.S. Eastern Time.
Reference price: $74.92 per Class A share (LEN), as the person responsible set it: the NYSE official close at 4:00 p.m. on Tuesday, October 13, 2026 (Yahoo Finance daily close, unadjusted for dividends, retrieved between 4:23 and 4:27 p.m. on October 13, 2026). The Class B shares (LEN.B) are named and not separately rated
Report completed: October 13, 2026, 6:41 p.m. ET
First disseminated: October 14, 2026, 6:20 a.m. ET (Part Two of the podcast, which states our value per share), on Substack. We publish the post with the report and both podcast episodes the same day. Part One of the podcast was published at 6:21 a.m. ET, Part Two, which states our value per share, at 6:20 a.m. ET, and the post with the report, the Excel model, the link to the earnings-call transcripts and the free companion deck at 6:24 a.m. ET.
Other figures: Dated where they appear. Other market data (peer multiples and index yields) are as of the U.S. close at 4:00 p.m. on October 13, 2026, from Yahoo Finance, retrieved between 4:23 and 4:27 p.m., with the peers’ balance sheets and operating figures from their own filings; transaction values are as of each deal’s announcement, from the acquirers’ and the targets’ filings and releases; S&P Dow Jones Indices’ gross buyback yield is from its release of December 18, 2025
The report uses Lennar’s results through Q3 FY2026 (Jun-Aug 2026), released on September 16, 2026. Lennar filed its 10-Q for that quarter on October 2. Both came before the reference price. Lennar has reported its fourth quarter in mid-December (on December 16 in 2025), so its next results come after publication.
F.6 The model files
We publish the Excel model with the report. We will list any change after publication here and on the free disclosures page, with its date and reason.
F.7 How often we update
We publish a note when the evidence changes, and we revalue only when the evidence moves an input outside its range:
a note within a day of each quarterly result, the first after Lennar’s Q4 FY2026 (Sep-Nov 2026) results, expected in mid-December 2026;
a note after an investor day or a material event, such as a change to Lennar’s agreements with Millrose;
a note in the week a kill criterion trips, with a full revaluation (Part I, chapter 3, sets out the criteria, and chapter 48 the dates their readings arrive);
a review after each annual report on Form 10-K.
Each quarterly note restates the rating against a new reference price. Between notes, the rating is not reset for share price moves alone, so it may be out of date if the price has moved.
We may stop covering Lennar at any time. If we do, we will say so in a note.
F.8 History of our recommendations
This is our first recommendation on Lennar Corporation and on either class of its shares. We publish the register of all our recommendations disseminated over the past 12 months free at https://www.latticework.com/p/disclosures and update it with each issue. It gives, for each recommendation, the date and time first disseminated, the issuer and instrument, the persons responsible, the rating, the price target (we set none), the intrinsic value range at 10%, the reference price and its time, and the validity. At first dissemination it reads:
Date and time first disseminated: Oct. 2, 2026, 8:10 a.m. ET; Issuer and instrument: Nike, Inc., Class B (NKE); Persons responsible: John Mihaljevic, Founder, MOI Global; Rating: Long-Term Overweight; Price target: None; Intrinsic value range (10%): $43.99–$51.27; Reference price and time: $31.50, pre-market quote, 5:13 a.m. ET, Oct. 2, 2026; Validity: Three to five years, or until changed in a note
Date and time first disseminated: Oct. 14, 2026, 6:20 a.m. ET; Issuer and instrument: Lennar Corporation, Class A (LEN), with Class B (LEN.B) named and not separately rated; Persons responsible: John Mihaljevic, Founder, MOI Global; Rating: Long-Term Overweight; Price target: None; Intrinsic value range (10%): $112.93–$148.86; Reference price and time: $74.92, official close, 4:00 p.m. ET, Oct. 13, 2026; Validity: Three to five years, or until changed in a note
When a later recommendation differs from one we made in the preceding 12 months, it will say what changed and give the date of the earlier one. No other MOI Global publication carries investment recommendations.
F.9 Distribution of our ratings
As of this issue we have published two ratings, on two issuers: Long-Term Overweight 2 (100%), Long-Term Neutral 0 (0%), Long-Term Underweight 0 (0%). We have supplied investment banking or other investment services to none of these issuers. The free page updates the distribution with each issue.
F.10 Conflicts of interest and holdings
Holdings. At the time of first dissemination, neither MOI Global, nor John Mihaljevic, nor any other company he controls held shares, options or other derivatives of Lennar Corporation, of either class, long or short.
Threshold. No such person or company holds a net long or short position above 0.5% of Lennar’s total issued share capital. Lennar holds no shares in MOI Global.
Market roles. MOI Global is not a market maker or liquidity provider in Lennar’s securities. It has not led or co-led any offer of them, and it has no agreement with Lennar to provide investment services or to produce this report.
Pay. Contributors are paid a salary. No one’s pay depends on the rating or the value range, or on how Lennar’s shares perform.
Trading policy. The persons named in F.1 and MOI Global do not trade in Lennar’s securities from the start of work on this report until ten trading days after first dissemination. They do not trade against a current rating. Any exception will be disclosed in the next note.
Certification. The views in this report are the views of the persons named in F.1. No part of their pay was, is or will be related to the specific rating or views in it.
Other relationships. We know of no other relationship or circumstance that could reasonably be expected to impair the objectivity of this report.
F.11 Independence from the issuer
No payment. This report was not commissioned or paid for, in full or in part, by Lennar Corporation, or by any underwriter or dealer of its securities. We have received no payment, and have none promised, from any of them for describing its securities. MOI Global has no business relationship with Lennar Corporation.
Not shown to Lennar. Neither the report nor its rating or value range was shown to Lennar before publication. We did not contact Lennar in preparing it. We quote Lennar’s statements from its filings, releases and calls, with dates and sources.
F.12 Facts, estimates and sources
Facts and estimates. Figures come from the primary source cited in each part’s notes and collected in Appendix D. Lennar’s filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, its releases and our transcripts of its earnings calls are the main sources. Forecasts, the intrinsic value range, the expected returns, the management scorecard and the rating are our estimates and opinions, labeled as such. Statements of Lennar’s management are theirs, attributed and dated.
Doubtful sources. Where we rely on a source we could not verify against a primary document, the note says so (“widely reported,” “not verified”). The management scorecard’s benchmark in Part VIII reads four calls each of D.R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE: DHI) and PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE: PHM), held in 2025 and 2026, from transcripts published online rather than from recordings: D.R. Horton’s own, and a third party’s for PulteGroup. They serve the language measures only and are never quoted.
Where the evidence ends. We transcribed Lennar’s calls ourselves, from publicly available recordings. We found recordings for 18 of the 20 calls we set out to cover; the two missing are Q4 FY2016 and Q4 FY2017 (Appendix C). The management scorecard is our own scoring, by a method fixed on October 5, 2026, before any scoring began (Appendix C).
Other issuers. The report describes other companies, Millrose Properties, Inc. (NYSE: MRP) and the other homebuilders above all, from their own filings, as counterparties and comparators. It makes no recommendation on them and expresses no view on the value of their securities.
F.13 What kind of publication this is
Latticework Business Intelligence is a financial publication issued on a regular schedule to the public: free and paid subscribers worldwide. It offers the same content to every reader.
It is impersonal research. It does not take into account any reader’s objectives, financial situation or needs.
It is not personal investment advice, an offer to buy or sell any security, or a solicitation of one.
Readers should consider whether any investment suits their own circumstances, and seek advice from a professional adviser where appropriate.
We do not manage money, execute trades or provide personalized advice to subscribers.
F.14 Where this report is not intended to be used
Restricted jurisdictions. The report is not directed at, and is not intended for distribution to or use by, any person in a jurisdiction where its distribution would require MOI Global to be licensed or registered, or would be unlawful. In particular, it is not intended for persons in Australia, Hong Kong or Singapore.
UK readers. In the United Kingdom, this report is published by a person that is not authorized by the Financial Conduct Authority. The protections of the UK regulatory system for authorized firms do not apply.
General advice (for readers where it is received despite these restrictions). Any advice in it is general. It does not consider the reader’s objectives, financial situation or needs, and readers should consider its appropriateness to them before acting on it.
F.15 Forward-looking statements and past performance
The report contains forward-looking statements, including forecasts, estimates of value and expected returns. They rest on assumptions that may prove wrong, and actual results will differ, possibly by a wide margin. Past performance of Lennar, of its shares or of the index is not a reliable indicator of future results. We do not undertake to update the report except as described in F.7. Figures are believed accurate as of the dates stated but are not warranted. Nothing in the report is legal, tax or accounting advice.
F.16 Data, trademarks and copyright
Sources. Financial data are from Lennar’s SEC filings and the XBRL company facts published by the SEC. Housing data are from the U.S. Census Bureau, Freddie Mac and the National Association of Home Builders, several through the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’s FRED database, and the other builders’ figures are from their own filings and releases. Lennar’s reference price is the NYSE official close of its Class A shares at 4:00 p.m. ET on October 13, 2026, from Yahoo Finance’s daily close (unadjusted for dividends). Other market data are from Yahoo Finance (closing prices of the peers and of the S&P 500’s constituents, the shares outstanding of every peer but Dream Finders, and the constituents’ trailing dividends, repurchases and issuance, retrieved October 13, 2026, between 4:23 and 4:27 p.m. ET), S&P Dow Jones Indices (its buyback release of December 18, 2025), and the peers’ and the deal parties’ own filings and releases (balance sheets, Dream Finders’ share count, operating figures and deal terms).
Trademarks. S&P 500 is a trademark of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC; the report uses the index’s name and published characteristics only as a benchmark. Lennar and the other company names and marks in the report belong to their owners. The report is not endorsed by Lennar Corporation or by any index provider.
Transcripts. The earnings-call transcripts are our transcriptions of publicly available recordings of Lennar’s calls (Appendix C); the statements in them are those of Lennar’s executives and the analysts on the calls, attributed to each speaker.
Copyright and redistribution. © 2026 MOI Global. The report, the model, the transcripts and the podcast are licensed to the subscriber for their own use. Anyone who shares, quotes or summarizes the rating or the value range must keep the rating, the value range, the reference price with its date and time, and a link to F.0 together, and must not alter them. Anyone who redistributes this report takes on their own obligations as a disseminator where the law imposes them.
F.17 For professional investors
Independence from execution. MOI Global is not engaged in execution services and is not part of a financial services group that includes an investment firm offering execution or brokerage services.
How the research is paid for. The research is sold only by subscription, at published prices, and is not paid for by any issuer. The free post and companion deck are openly available to the public.
FINRA members. For FINRA members distributing it: MOI Global has no affiliation or business or contractual relationship with any broker-dealer that is reasonably likely to inform the content of its research, and it decides the content without input from any distributor.
F.18 Why these rules apply to Lennar’s shares
Both classes of Lennar’s shares trade on venues in the European Union, and that brings this report under the EU’s and the UK’s rules on investment recommendations. We queried ESMA’s Financial Instruments Reference Data System (FIRDS, https://registers.esma.europa.eu) on October 5, 2026. It listed 18 venues for the Class A shares and 11 for the Class B. ESMA’s register of trading venues classifies every one of them as a multilateral trading facility (MTF). Most are the open-market segments of German exchanges, and the others are in Italy, France and Ireland; none is a regulated market. The EU Market Abuse Regulation (Regulation (EU) No 596/2014) covers instruments traded on an MTF (Article 2(1)(b)) and applies to actions in the Union and in third countries (Article 2(4)). The UK’s version of the regulation covers instruments traded on an EU MTF, wherever the actions take place (Articles 2(1)(b) and 2(4)). Under both, information intended for the public that gives an opinion on the present or future value of a share is an investment recommendation (Article 3(1)(35)). This report is therefore an investment recommendation on both classes, and these disclosures follow Article 20 of each regulation and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958, in its EU and UK versions.
Nike, Inc. (NYSE: NKE): first recommendation, October 2, 2026
F.1 Who produced this report. This report is an investment recommendation produced by MOI Global, 8700 Küsnacht ZH, Switzerland, which publishes as “Latticework by MOI Global.” The natural person responsible for producing it is John Mihaljevic, Founder of MOI Global. The research and drafting were carried out with the assistance of AI tools working under written rules set by the person named above, who directed the work, reviewed the text and is responsible for its content. John Mihaljevic is a CFA charterholder and is subject to the CFA Institute Code of Ethics and Standards of Professional Conduct. Neither MOI Global nor any affiliate is authorized or registered as an investment adviser, broker-dealer or investment firm in any jurisdiction.
F.2 What the rating means. Our rating compares the total return we expect from the shares with the total return we expect from a market index over the next three to five years. The index is the S&P 500 total return index in U.S. dollars unless a report names another.
Long-Term Overweight: we expect the shares’ annualized total return over the next three to five years to exceed the index’s by more than 2 percentage points a year.
Long-Term Neutral: we expect the two to be within 2 percentage points a year of each other, either way.
Long-Term Underweight: we expect the shares’ annualized total return to fall short of the index’s by more than 2 percentage points a year.
The rating is a relative call. A Long-Term Overweight share can lose money if the index falls, and a Long-Term Underweight share can rise. The rating is not a price target, and we do not set one. The horizon is three to five years because the valuation rests on a recovery in Nike’s margins that we expect to take about that long; in the closest analog, the 1998–2003 slump, gross margin took about four years from the revenue trough to recover, and net income six years from the start (Part I). The rating says nothing about the next quarter.
Nike, Inc. (NYSE: NKE, Class B common stock, ISIN US6541061031): Long-Term Overweight against the S&P 500 total return index in U.S. dollars (F.3 and F.4).
F.3 How we set it.
The valuation. Parts IX and X value Nike’s business with a discounted cash flow model, with full statements to FY2031 and segment revenue, margins and tax to FY2036, plus a terminal value, run 20,000 times with inputs drawn from ranges the evidence supports. Every cash flow is discounted at a fixed 10%, with 8% and 11% shown beside it (Appendix E.2). The result is an intrinsic value range of $43.99 to $51.27 per share at 10%, the middle half of the 20,000 outcomes, with a median of $47.50. This range is our estimate of business value on stated assumptions, not a forecast of where the shares will trade. Its material assumptions are in Tables E.1 and E.2, and the method is in Appendix E. The model is our own; the Excel workbook comes with the paid report, and Appendix E describes its engine. The valuation sheets contain no share price; the market data sit on a separate sheet that the valuation does not read (F.6).
The market. We then set the value beside the market. We compared the value range with the trading multiples of our valuation peer group, the Branded Athletic Leaders (adidas, ASICS, Deckers, On and Amer Sports), with each peer’s last-twelve-months EBIT and EBITDA adjusted for the non-recurring items it names in its own earnings releases; PUMA, lululemon, ANTA Sports, Li Ning, Under Armour and V.F. are shown for reference only. Nike’s figures exclude the tariff refund and its FY2026 severance; Part VII treats severance as recurring at Nike, but for the peer comparison we follow each company’s own disclosure. We also compared the range with five precedent acquisitions of brands (Skechers, 2025; Amer Sports, 2018; Timberland, 2011; Champion, 2024; Collective Brands, 2012); Foot Locker (2025) and Hibbett (2024), retailers, are shown but excluded. We show all of these on one chart (Exhibit EX-64). These comparisons are a cross-check. They are not inputs to the value range, and they express no view on the value of any peer.
The expected return. We compute the shares’ expected annualized total return as
(1.10) × (V / P)^(1/4) − 1
where V is the median value per share at 10% ($47.50), P is the reference price in F.5 ($31.50), and 1/4 assumes the gap between price and value closes over four years, the middle of our horizon. At the reference price this gives 21.90% a year.
The index return. We estimate it as the index’s dividend yield (1.02%) plus its net buyback yield (1.44%) plus long-run nominal earnings growth (5.00%), at a constant multiple: 7.46% a year. The two yields are computed bottom-up from 502 constituents: trailing dividends, and the last four quarters of repurchases less issuance, over market capitalization at the October 1, 2026 close (Yahoo Finance, retrieved October 1, 2026, 4:28 p.m. ET). The 5% growth is our assumption.
The rating. The difference between the two is +14.44 percentage points a year, above the 2-point threshold, which sets the rating in F.2. Closed over three and five years instead of four, the gap gives 26.14% and 19.42% a year, or +18.68 and +11.96 points, so the rating does not change within the horizon.
This is the first time we have used this method, so there is no earlier version to compare it with. Any later change to the method, the assumptions or the value range will be listed here and in the note that makes it.
F.4 What would change the rating, and the main risks.
Sensitivity to value and price. The rating depends on the ratio of value to price. At today’s ratio, every 10% change in it moves the expected return by roughly 3 percentage points a year, so the gap between the rating’s thresholds (4 points) corresponds to a change of about 14% in value or price.
The rating would be Long-Term Neutral only at a reference price above about $48.44, 54% above $31.50, or at a median value below about $30.89, 35% below $47.50; it would become Long-Term Underweight only at a price above about $56.22.
At the ends of the value range at 10% ($43.99 and $51.27), the expected return would be 19.58% and 24.25%, both Long-Term Overweight.
At 8% and at 11% (medians $77.39 and $39.78), with the matching rate in place of 10% in the formula (1.08 and 1.11), it would be 35.21% and 17.67%, both Long-Term Overweight.
An index return 1 point higher or lower moves the gap by 1 point. On S&P Dow Jones Indices’ gross buyback yield of 1.79% (twelve months to September 2025, the latest release we could retrieve) in place of our net yield, the index return would be 7.81% and the gap +14.09 points, still Long-Term Overweight. Our method uses the net yield, because the shares companies issue offset part of what they buy back.
What moves the inputs. The inputs that move value most are terminal growth (3% to 6%; $42.79 to $52.59 per share between its 10th and 90th percentiles), the steady-state EBIT margin (12% to 15%; about $3.47 per share per point of margin at 10%) and revenue growth in FY2029–FY2031 (Chapters 36 and 38 and Table E.2). The discount rate moves it more than any of them: the median is $77.39 at 8% and $39.78 at 11%.
The main risks are set out in Part XI:
a slower margin recovery;
further share loss in Greater China and to newer brands;
tariffs;
demand creation that fails to lift revenue;
the pre-mortem’s failure paths.
Part XI also dates the kill criteria that would force a revaluation.
The value range reflects our judgments, not a statistical confidence interval. Outcomes outside it are possible. Investing in shares can lose money, and the index can fall.
F.5 Prices, dates and times. All times are U.S. Eastern Time.
Reference price: $31.50 per Class B share, Nike’s pre-market quote on Friday, October 2, 2026, after the fiscal Q1 FY2027 release: Interactive Brokers pre-market quote, 5:13 a.m. ET (11:13 a.m. Zurich time), October 2, 2026
Report completed: October 2, 2026, October 2, 2026, 5:38 a.m. ET
First disseminated: October 2, 2026, to paid subscribers on Substack. The free post and companion deck were first disseminated on October 2, 2026. Part One of the podcast was published at 8:09 a.m. ET, Part Two, which states our value per share, at 8:10 a.m. ET, and the post with the report, the Excel model, the call transcript and the free companion deck at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Other figures: Dated where they appear. Other market data (peer multiples, transaction values, index yields) are as of the U.S. close at 4:00 p.m. on October 1, 2026, retrieved at 4:28 p.m., unless stated; ANTA Sports and Li Ning are at their September 30 close, and S&P Dow Jones Indices’ gross buyback yield is from its release of December 18, 2025
Nike released its fiscal Q1 FY2027 results at 4:15 p.m. on October 1, 2026, after the 4:00 p.m. close of the New York Stock Exchange. The reference price reflects those results, which this report uses.
F.6 The model files. The model and simulation files are published with the report. Any change after publication will be listed here with its date and reason.
F.7 How often we update. We publish a note when the evidence changes, and we revalue only when the evidence moves an input outside its range (Part XIII, section 41.3):
a note within a day of each quarterly result;
a note within a week of Nike’s Investor Day;
a note in the week a kill criterion trips, with a full revaluation (Part XI, section 39.3, sets out when a line our base case already sits below counts);
a review after each annual filing.
Each quarterly note restates the rating against a new reference price. Between notes, the rating is not reset for share price moves alone, so it may be out of date if the price has moved.
We may stop covering Nike at any time. If we do, we will say so in a note.
F.8 History of our recommendations. This is our first recommendation on Nike, Inc. and on any of its financial instruments. The register of all our recommendations disseminated over the past 12 months is published free at https://www.latticework.com/p/disclosures. It is updated with each issue in this format:
Date and time first disseminated: Oct. 2, 2026; Issuer and instrument: Nike, Inc., Class B (NKE); Persons responsible: John Mihaljevic, Founder, MOI Global; Rating: Long-Term Overweight; Price target: None; Intrinsic value range (10%): $43.99–$51.27; Reference price and time: $31.50, pre-market quote, 5:13 a.m. ET, Oct. 2, 2026; Validity: Three to five years, or until changed in a note
When a later recommendation differs from one we made in the preceding 12 months, it will say what changed and give the date of the earlier one. No other MOI Global publication carries investment recommendations.
F.9 Distribution of our ratings. As of this issue we have published one rating, on one issuer: Long-Term Overweight 1 (100%), Long-Term Neutral 0 (0%), Long-Term Underweight 0 (0%). We have supplied investment banking or other investment services to none of these issuers. The free page updates the distribution with each issue.
F.10 Conflicts of interest and holdings.
Holdings. At the time of first dissemination, neither MOI Global, nor John Mihaljevic, nor any other company he controls held shares, options or other derivatives of Nike, Inc., long or short.
Threshold. No such person or company holds a net long or short position above 0.5% of Nike’s total issued share capital. Nike holds no shares in MOI Global.
Market roles. MOI Global is not a market maker or liquidity provider in Nike’s securities. It has not led or co-led any offer of them, and it has no agreement with Nike to provide investment services or to produce this report.
Pay. Contributors are paid a salary. No one’s pay depends on the rating or the value range, or on how Nike’s shares perform.
Trading policy. The persons named in F.1 and MOI Global do not trade in Nike’s securities from the start of work on this report until ten trading days after first dissemination. They do not trade against a current rating. Any exception will be disclosed in the next note.
Certification. The views in this report are the views of the persons named in F.1. No part of their pay was, is or will be related to the specific rating or views in it.
Other relationships. We know of no other relationship or circumstance that could reasonably be expected to impair the objectivity of this report.
F.11 Independence from the issuer.
No payment. This report was not commissioned or paid for, in full or in part, by Nike, Inc., or by any underwriter or dealer of its securities. We have received no payment, and have none promised, from any of them for describing its securities. MOI Global has no business relationship with Nike, Inc.
Not shown to Nike. Neither the report nor its rating or value range was shown to Nike before publication. We did not contact Nike in preparing it. Nike’s statements are quoted from its filings, releases and calls, with dates and sources.
F.12 Facts, estimates and sources.
Facts and estimates. Figures come from the primary source cited in each part’s notes and collected in Appendix D. Nike’s filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, its releases and its official call transcripts are the main sources.
Forecasts, the intrinsic value range, the expected returns and the rating are our estimates and opinions, labeled as such.
Statements of Nike’s management are theirs, attributed and dated.
Doubtful sources. Where we rely on a source we could not verify against a primary document, the note says so (“widely reported,” “not verified”).
Where the evidence ends. Our alternative data (Part V) comes from public sources, and each series has the limits stated in Appendix E.4.
F.13 What kind of publication this is. Latticework Business Intelligence is a financial publication issued on a regular schedule to the public: free and paid subscribers worldwide. It offers the same content to every reader.
It is impersonal research. It does not take into account any reader’s objectives, financial situation or needs.
It is not personal investment advice, an offer to buy or sell any security, or a solicitation of one.
Readers should consider whether any investment suits their own circumstances, and seek advice from a professional adviser where appropriate.
We do not manage money, execute trades or provide personalized advice to subscribers.
F.14 Where this report is not intended to be used.
Restricted jurisdictions. The report is not directed at, and is not intended for distribution to or use by, any person in a jurisdiction where its distribution would require MOI Global to be licensed or registered, or would be unlawful. In particular, it is not intended for persons in Australia, Hong Kong or Singapore.
UK readers. In the United Kingdom, this report is published by a person that is not authorized by the Financial Conduct Authority. The protections of the UK regulatory system for authorized firms do not apply.
General advice (for readers where it is received despite these restrictions). Any advice in it is general. It does not consider the reader’s objectives, financial situation or needs, and readers should consider its appropriateness to them before acting on it.
F.15 Forward-looking statements and past performance. The report contains forward-looking statements, including forecasts, estimates of value and expected returns. They rest on assumptions that may prove wrong, and actual results will differ, possibly by a wide margin. Past performance of Nike, of its shares or of the index is not a reliable indicator of future results. We do not undertake to update the report except as described in F.7. Figures are believed accurate as of the dates stated but are not warranted. Nothing in the report is legal, tax or accounting advice.
F.16 Data, trademarks and copyright.
Sources. Financial data are from Nike’s SEC filings and the XBRL company facts published by the SEC. Tariff data are from the U.S. International Trade Commission, exchange rates from the European Central Bank, and alternative data from the sources listed in Appendix E.4. Nike’s reference price is Interactive Brokers’ pre-market quote of 5:13 a.m. ET on October 2, 2026. Other market data are from Yahoo Finance (closing prices, share counts, exchange rates and the S&P 500 constituent data, retrieved October 1, 2026, 4:28 p.m. ET), multpl.com (a cross-check of the S&P 500 dividend yield), S&P Dow Jones Indices (its buyback release of December 18, 2025), the European Central Bank (a check of the exchange rates), and the peers’ and the deal parties’ own filings and releases (balance sheets, operating figures and deal terms).
Trademarks. S&P 500 is a trademark of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC; the report uses the index’s name and published characteristics only as a benchmark. NIKE and the Swoosh are trademarks of Nike, Inc. The report is not endorsed by Nike, Inc. or by any index provider.
Transcript. The earnings-call transcript is our transcription of Nike’s public webcast of October 1, 2026; the statements in it are those of Nike’s executives and the analysts on the call, attributed to each speaker.
Copyright and redistribution. © 2026 MOI Global. The report, the model, the transcript and the podcast are licensed to the subscriber for their own use. Anyone who shares, quotes or summarizes the rating or the value range must keep the rating, the value range, the reference price with its date and time, and a link to F.0 together, and must not alter them. Anyone who redistributes this report takes on their own obligations as a disseminator where the law imposes them.
F.17 For professional investors.
Independence from execution. MOI Global is not engaged in execution services and is not part of a financial services group that includes an investment firm offering execution or brokerage services.
How the research is paid for. The research is sold only by subscription, at published prices, and is not paid for by any issuer. The free post and companion deck are openly available to the public.
FINRA members. For FINRA members distributing it: MOI Global has no affiliation or business or contractual relationship with any broker-dealer that is reasonably likely to inform the content of its research, and it decides the content without input from any distributor.