Latticework by MOI Global: Presentations at MOI Global Online Conferences

European Deep-Value Microcaps: Priced for a Repeat of 2022

MOI Global Equity Research — Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:56:51 GMT

Brian Chingono of Verdad presented his thesis on European deep-value microcaps, featuring Delfingen (France: ALDEL), at European Investing Summit 2026.

Thesis summary:

Brian argues that Europe’s scariest corner, deep-value microcaps, offers patient investors the most attractive compensation. Every September since 1997, Verdad screens European stocks above $40M market cap for the cheapest quartile by price/book with above-median free cash flow yields. With no size target, the screen lands in microcaps: the median firm is worth about $300M, and 73% fall within the MSCI Europe Micro Cap Index’s size range. The segment has outperformed the market by 5% annualized since 1997.

With low gas inventories and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, the headlines echo 2022, when euro-area inflation peaked at 10.6% and took three years to return to 2%; it now stands at 3.8%. After 7.7% price-driven growth in 2023, deep-value revenue stalled near zero in 2024-2026, against a 3.4% long-term average. Companies cut costs: market EBIT outgrew revenue in each of the past three years, and deep-value EBIT, after a 2% decline in 2025, turned positive in 2026.

Prices have not followed. The market has re-rated from 1.65x book in 2023 to 1.85x, within 4% of its 30-year average, but deep value still trades at 0.66x, near 2023’s 0.63x and a 15% discount to its 0.77x average. Its valuation spread versus the market, 0.35x against a 0.40x median, has rarely been wider, mainly around 2000 and in 2020-2021. When spreads were wider than the median, deep value outperformed by 7% annualized over the following three years.

Verdad’s bridge implies a 17.2% five-year expected return for deep value versus 13.2% for the market: a 12.1% free cash flow yield, 1.9% historical EBIT growth and 3.2% from re-rating, so about 70% is cash available for near-term distribution. Brian sees the 2022 analogy breaking down: Europe added a third more LNG regasification capacity, Norway and the US supply 57% of its gas, and gas prices are roughly a quarter of their 2022 peak. Yet equities are priced for a repeat.

Brian’s example is Delfingen, a family-controlled French wire-protection specialist with an €81M market cap, trading at 3.6x EV/EBITDA, 0.5x book and a 30% free cash flow yield. Its IMPULSE 2026 restructuring lifted the operating margin from 5.0% in 2022 to 9.0% in 1H 2026 and cut leverage to 2.1x. Industrial, 17% of 2025 revenue at a 26% EBIT margin, could alone be worth most of the €208M EV at peers’ 12-15x EBIT. Risks include the auto cycle (1H 2026 revenue fell 8%) and limited liquidity.

Disclaimer

European Investing Summit 2026 was held from October 20-23, 2026. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

PVA TePla: Scarce-Equipment Near-Monopoly the AI Trade Overlooks

MOI Global Equity Research — Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:56:26 GMT

Nitin Sacheti of Papyrus Capital presented his thesis on PVA TePla (Germany: TPE) at European Investing Summit 2026.

Thesis summary:

PVA TePla is a German maker of scarce, hard-to-replicate equipment that sits at the center, or the very start, of the silicon carbide (SiC), indium phosphide (InP), HBM and silicon supply chains. Material Solutions (€172m of 2024 revenue, ~64%) builds the furnaces that grow crystal boules for slicing into wafers; Metrology (€98m, ~36%) inspects finished chips. Nitin calls it a near-monopoly the AI trade hasn’t noticed: one of the best hardware-focused PMs he knows had never heard of it.

Acoustic metrology, ~80% of Metrology and ~30% of the group, is the jewel. Nitin sees PVA’s scanning acoustic microscope (SAM) as the only production-worthy tool for finding buried voids and delaminations in HBM stacks and hybrid bonds in-line. X-ray costs three to four times as much and is far slower, so it can’t run on the line. PVA’s in-house zinc-oxide transducers reach 2,000 MHz, which no competitor builds itself. Metrology earns 45-55% gross margins, versus 24-30% in Material Solutions.

Nitin models 40% annual acoustic revenue growth, against capital markets day (CMD) guidance of 18-22%, as HBM stacks rise from 12-high toward 16- and 20-high and hybrid bonding spreads to logic. In Synthesis he assumes 17% growth versus 5-11% guidance: the SiC shift from 6- to 8-inch wafers forces net-new furnace purchases, PVA targets a share gain from 16% to 25%, and InP, the substrate for AI data center lasers, sits outside both CMD and consensus.

Orders reached a record €121.6m in Q1 2026, a 2.2x book-to-bill, and revenue should follow: metrology tools convert in four to eight months, Material Solutions projects in 12-18. Nitin expects revenue to grow from about €245m in 2025 to about €595m by 2029, with Metrology rising from 40% to 55% of the mix. Gross profit climbs from about €79m to over €260m and EBIT margins from mid-to-high single digits to the low 20s. He rates management well; the CEO is a former CFO.

Applying 21x to Nitin’s €4.67 estimate of 2029 EPS yields a €100 base target, about 2.4x the €42 price on his deck, with “meme” optionality to €150. The shares traded near €29 at the time of the talk, amid a pullback in AI capex stocks. If execution falters, he sees a takeout at €45-60, since PVA is already qualified at major logic and DRAM makers. Risks include furnace cyclicality, a better rival technology, and thin service coverage until mid-2027.

Disclaimer

Grifols: Deleveraging Plasma Leader With US Listing Catalyst

MOI Global Equity Research — Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:51:27 GMT

Roshan Padamadan of Roshan 30 presented his thesis on Grifols (Spain: GRF.P) at European Investing Summit 2026.

Thesis summary:

Grifols is a Barcelona-based leader in plasma-derived therapies, founded in 1909, with FY2025 revenue of €7.5bn and adjusted EBITDA of €1.8bn (24.3% margin). It runs 400+ donation centers, about 280 of them in the US, which supplies ~70% of the world’s plasma. Roshan notes that many countries bar paid donation, so only three or four scaled global players compete, and the donor network itself is the moat.

Biopharma (immunoglobulins, albumin, alpha-1 and specialty proteins) is 88% of revenue and earned a 26.9% EBITDA margin in FY2025; the US and Canada contribute 58%. Immunoglobulin revenue grew 12.8% at constant currency in H1 2026, with SCIG up 17.7%, while CSL Behring’s IG was flat. Albumin fell 14.2% on China pricing. Management guides FY2026 adjusted EBITDA up 5-9% at constant currency at a margin of at least 25%.

The core argument is a possible minority IPO of US Biopharma: selling 15-20% while keeping control could net about €5bn, by Roshan’s estimate, valuing the division near €20bn, more than the group’s enterprise value, so the ex-US business comes for negative value. Supply is the second lever. The Egypt joint venture, opened in 2021, collects ~1m liters in 2026 and targets 3m by 2029, lifting ex-US supply ~2.5x and cutting cost per liter. Alpha-1 SPARTA trial data, due late 2026, adds optionality.

Roshan sees the governance discount as overblown. After the 2024 Gotham City short report on a related-party plasma deal, the regulator took no action and most of the board changed; Mason Capital (3.2%) helped defeat a 2024 take-private near 0.8x book. Free cash flow turned positive at €91m in H1 2026. Credit-agreement leverage fell from 4.6x to 4.2x (5.4x reported), 2027 maturities are refinanced and S&P has raised Grifols two notches to BB-. The target is 3.5x or less by year-end 2027.

On October 7, 2026, Class A traded at €9.95 and the ADR at $7.50; the ~€5.9bn market cap sits against €7.8bn of net debt, making the equity a levered call. Shares trade at ~9.5x EV/adjusted EBITDA and ~13x earnings versus five-year averages of 14.2x and 23.4x. Roshan sees a ~50% re-rating, in line with the €15.01 consensus target, and prefers Class B, ~30% cheaper for a one-cent dividend gap. Risks include a stalled IPO, the suspended Winnipeg license, China albumin and EUR/USD.

Disclaimer

Barratt Redrow: UK Housebuilder at a Third of Liquidation Value

MOI Global Equity Research — Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:51:08 GMT

Simon Caufield of SIM Limited presented his thesis on Barratt Redrow (UK: BTRW) at European Investing Summit 2026.

Thesis summary:

Barratt Redrow is the UK’s largest housebuilder, with about £6bn of revenue across three brands: Barratt for first-time buyers, mid-market David Wilson (acquired 2007) and up-market Redrow (acquired 2024). A year after Simon pitched it near £4, the shares trade at 292p, a £4.0bn market cap against £6.2bn of tangible net assets that include £770m of net cash. At 0.65x net tangible book, the stock has fallen from half to a third of his liquidation value.

Simon calls Barratt the best operator in the industry. Scale funds off-site factory production of kitchen and bathroom pods, timber frames and roof cassettes, while three brands and price points widen appeal, speed sales and make larger sites viable. The culture stresses efficiency, return on investment and a strong balance sheet, and land buying is signed off centrally by the CEO or CFO, a guard against overpaying for land. A Competition and Markets Authority study puts the 12 largest UK builders’ average ROCE above 20%.

Simon argues the bearish housing macro is irrelevant. Sites of about 200 plots take four years to sell, so builders hold three to four years of land as inventory, and each lost sale means four fewer plots to buy, releasing “oceans of cash.” Falling prices are offset by a disproportionate drop in land costs, with a three-to-four-year lag. In 2008-2009, Barratt’s volumes fell 29% and EBIT 94%, yet operating cash flow hit £408m, above its market cap, as land prices fell 55%.

Simon sees a hidden, slow-motion shock since 2022 that was worse than the GFC: completions fell 23%, and flat prices against 27% inflation imply a 44% real revenue hit, while EBIT fell 56% and the shares 65%. Land bought cheaply in 2022-2026 should lift margins. In July, under pressure from Phoenix Asset Management, Barratt announced a £386m buyback, about 9% of its market cap, and a buyback-led return policy. New CEO Dean Banks has launched buybacks three times before.

Simon estimates that halting land purchases and building out inventory would release £12bn over three to four years, or 3x the market cap, and puts intrinsic value above 4x the share price. The stock trades at 7x EV/EBIT and 12x earnings, after falling 25% in a year as five-year gilt yields rose 100bp. Risks include the Renters’ Rights Act, distressed selling by Vistry, a CMA price-collusion lawsuit, cladding remediation, build-cost inflation and a payout policy of 50% of earnings.

Disclaimer

Disney: Century-Old Franchises at 14x Forward Earnings

MOI Global Equity Research — Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:50:49 GMT

Samuel Ziff of Oldfield Partners presented his thesis on The Walt Disney Company (US: DIS) at European Investing Summit 2026.

Thesis summary:

The Walt Disney Company is a $180bn business whose IP goes back over a century. Sam notes that Snow White, Pinocchio, Fantasia, Dumbo and Bambi all came out between 1937 and 1942 and still earn money through Disney+, the parks and merchandise. Disney took a lot of pain moving from cable to streaming; Sam believes it is through the worst, yet the shares trade at a multi-year low valuation.

The moat is the flywheel Walt Disney sketched in 1957: a hit film creates characters that sell toys and bring visitors to the parks, and animated characters outlive any actor. Disney took $6.6bn at the 2025 box office versus $4.3bn for Warner Bros., leads licensed retail sales at $63bn, and runs eight of the ten most-visited parks. Stitch merchandise rose from $0.2bn in 2019 to over $4bn in FY2025; Toy Story has earned ~$16.2bn of direct revenue from the $7.4bn Pixar deal.

Experiences (parks, cruises and products) earns about 60% of segment profit, $10.0bn of $17.6bn in FY25, from roughly 40% of revenue at a ~30% margin; that profit has doubled since FY15. A Disneyland ticket rose from $1 in 1955 to $224, 8% a year compounded and ~20x in real terms. A $60bn ten-year plan targets double-digit returns, two new ships lift cruise capacity 50%, and Abu Dhabi follows the capital-light Tokyo model with partner Miral.

Sam argues Disney rebuilds its revenue mix whenever distribution changes. TV money funded Disneyland; the $19bn Capital Cities/ABC deal brought ESPN and lifted Media Networks profit from $1.7bn (FY1997) to $7.8bn (FY2016). Streaming lost $4.0bn in FY22; after Bob Iger returned, price rises, a password-sharing crackdown and folding in Hulu brought breakeven in FY24 and a 13% margin in Q3 FY26. Free cash flow runs at 90-95% of earnings, and buybacks have cut the share count about 5% from its post-Fox peak.

At $105 (28 September 2026), Disney trades at 14x FY27 consensus EPS of $7.50, versus a 21x median P/E since 1980, and 1.9x price/sales (EV/sales 2.3x). Sam’s base case, 20x on $7.50, gives $150, 42% upside; his bear case, 12x on $6.50 in a recession, gives $78, 26% lower, which he sees as temporary. Risks are the parks cycle, the creative hit rate (no original $1bn film since Zootopia), linear TV and sports costs, ROIC near 9% since Fox, and untested CEO Josh D’Amaro.

Disclaimer

Getlink: Underutilized Channel Tunnel Concession Running to 2086

MOI Global Equity Research — Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:50:17 GMT

Stuart Mitchell of S. W. Mitchell Capital presented his thesis on Getlink (France: GET) at European Investing Summit 2026.

Thesis summary:

Getlink, formerly Eurotunnel, was established in 1986 with a concession to build and manage the Channel Tunnel until 2086. LeShuttle leads the Channel crossing with 35% of truck and 56% of car traffic, while Eurostar, which pays Getlink a fee for every passenger, holds 77% of London-Paris and 49% of London-Amsterdam. Stuart calls Getlink a forgotten investment: a relatively small company the sell side barely researches while investors chase AI and other hot areas.

Eurotunnel, including LeShuttle and Eurostar, earned 78% of 2025 EBITDA. Eleclink, a high-voltage cable through the tunnel that lets Britain import French nuclear power when gas prices are high, grew from nothing to 18%; Europorte freight logistics added 4%. With the investment sunk and depreciated, Getlink turned €1,595M of revenue into €347M of free cash flow, a fountain of cash. Yet the tunnel runs 450 trains on peak days against capacity of 1,000, between a half and a third of its longer-term potential.

Freight, hit by Brexit, remains 25% below 2019 levels. Stuart expects it to recover as the Border smart-border system, customs scanners checking rail freight at 20 km/h and a Sanitary and Phytosanitary Agreement cut paperwork. Ferry rivals such as Irish Ferries face a new seafarers’ wage law, emission charges and higher energy costs; Eurotunnel’s truck share rose 160 bps year over year in June 2026. New shuttles running at 160 km/h, against 100-120 km/h today, and new signaling should lift throughput.

Passenger rail is the more tangible driver. Eurostar plans 30% more capacity, Virgin Trains and Trenitalia plan to enter in 2029/2030, and a four-to-five-hour London-Frankfurt/Cologne route in the early 2030s opens a market of 3M airline and 1.7M rail passengers; Geneva, Basel and Zurich routes reach 5M more. Getlink’s chart shows passengers rising from 12M in 2025 to 22M by 2035+; Stuart thinks 30M is possible. Once a capex blip ends in about 18 months, Getlink plans to pay out essentially everything.

H1 2026 EBITDA rose 12% to €404M, and 2026 guidance was upgraded to €835M-€870M. Stuart sees the 4.5% dividend yield as too high for a super-quality asset whose cost of capital should be nearer 6%, implying a doubling in value; his DCFs point to double to triple the share price. He sees total returns of at least 9% a year, nearer 12-13% if more optimistic, and expects an eventual buyout, perhaps by Eiffage. Risks include COVID-type shocks and the guesswork in modeling new routes.

Disclaimer

Hexaom: Net-Cash French Home Builder Trading Near 1x EV/EBITA

MOI Global Equity Research — Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:25:29 GMT

Jeremie Couix of HC Capital Advisors presented his thesis on Hexaom (France: ALHEX) at European Investing Summit 2026.

Thesis summary:

Hexaom, founded in 1919 in Alençon, Normandy, and now run by its fifth generation, is France’s largest builder of single homes, with a market share a bit below 10%. A buy-and-build drive after its 2000 IPO consolidated about 18 regional builders; it now runs 50+ local brands across 12 regions with ~1,400 employees and subcontracts all building work. Revenue peaked near €1.0bn in 2021-23, fell 29% to €728m in 2024, and rose 12.3% to €344m in H1 2026.

Jeremie notes that single homes (€460m 2025 sales, €15m EBITA) carry no land risk and neutral working capital: the buyer’s bank releases stage payments as works progress, while 2,000+ subcontractors are paid with a 70-80 day delay. Working capital averaged about zero in 2007-2018; gross margin averages 18%. Completion-guarantee insurance, held by ever fewer builders, is a soft barrier; the network and cheaper sourcing are the real edge. Promotion (€100m sales, €5m EBITA) controls land through ~5% options and has €174m of backlog.

French new-house sales fell from 140k in 2021 to 51k in 2024 (2006-25 average: 117k); Jeremie expects a structurally lower 100-120k. Hexaom’s rolling 12-month orders are up 25.1% from the trough, though 2026 orders were down 8.6% through August. 2025 orders, up 55% in value, secure ~20% revenue growth and a >5% margin in 2026; 2027 is partly secured, 2028 at risk. Each one-point rate rise cuts buying power by ~10%, yet a median household can still finance a home at 5%.

Some 650 builders have been liquidated since 2023, including Geoxia and AST Groupe, whose gross margins collapsed with 2022 inflation. Hexaom’s held up far better and reached 23.6% in H1 2026, versus a 20.0% average for 2017-2025, while opex, after rising 53% by 2022, now sits below 2017 levels. Management buys selectively (75.5% of HDV; AST’s wood factories for €1m with Trecobat) and prefers organic share gains. Jeremie would like a buyback, which management has said it could consider.

At about €21, the market cap is ~€144m, with €71m of net cash in June 2026. Jeremie expects net cash of €13, equity of €38 and tangible equity of €22 per share by end-2026, and puts 2026 EV/EBITA at 1.2x, FCF yield near 20% and dividend yield at 4-5%. A 10% reverse DCF implies cash flow vanishing after ~€30m a year in 2026-27. BPCE, carrying its stake at €55 per share, is a possible catalyst. Risks: interest rates, French politics and 2028 orders.

Disclaimer

Asmodee: The Toll Road of a Growing Tabletop Industry

MOI Global Equity Research — Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:24:53 GMT

David Autin, a Paris-based private investor, presented his thesis on Asmodee Group (Sweden: ASMDEE B) at European Investing Summit 2026.

Thesis summary:

Asmodee publishes its own tabletop games, such as Catan, Ticket to Ride and Exploding Kittens, and distributes third-party titles including the Pokémon and Magic: The Gathering trading card games. Born in 1995 near Paris, it lists in Stockholm by accident of history: Embracer bought it in late 2021 for close to €3 billion, froze its M&A and diverted its cash, then spun it off in early 2025. David calls it the toll road of a growing tabletop industry.

David sees the moat in distribution. Ranked #1 in France and the UK, #2 in Germany and #3 in the US, Asmodee owns the route to market that publishers like Hasbro and Mattel rent: 27 countries, ~62% of staff in distribution, 4,000+ active references and near next-day delivery to hobby stores. A rival would need about a decade to replicate it. Sales split roughly evenly across hobby, mass and online, and the top 10 customers are under 25%.

The €14 billion market roughly doubled over a decade and did not contract in 2022. A €30 game nets Asmodee about €9 a unit, so ~17,000 units cover a ~€150,000 development cost, well under a ~30,000 first print run. Trading card games, now 61% of sales, rose 94% from €526 million in FY22/23 to €1,020 million in FY25/26, fed by four to five booster sets a year, separate communities, a deep secondary market and digital on-ramps.

Distributed TCGs trim gross margin, yet David expects adjusted EBITDA margin to rise from 17.0% toward 18.2% on scale. Capex of 2-3% of sales and leverage near 1.3x leave €170-200 million of annual free cash flow to deploy. M&A, frozen under Embracer, restarted with five deals in FY25/26, buying studios Asmodee already distributes: ATM Gaming cost €180 million at 7.2x EV/EBITDA for a 10-14% post-tax ROIC. Chairman Lars Wingefors holds about 17% of capital and 38% of votes.

At SEK 174, the shares trade near 12x forward EV/EBITDA with a roughly 5% free cash flow yield, beside Hasbro (11x), above Mattel (7.5x) and well below Games Workshop (17x). David’s base case of steady like-for-like growth, a margin above 18% and a 12-13x exit multiple yields SEK 204, or 17% upside; the bull case reaches SEK 298 (+71%). The bear case, SEK 90 (48% downside), reflects a hard TCG rollover or the loss of Pokémon, an estimated 20-25% of sales.

Disclaimer

Migros Ticaret: Türkiye’s Leading Grocer Priced Like a Stalled One

MOI Global Equity Research — Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:24:25 GMT

Mesut Ellialtıoğlu of Büyükdemir Asset Management presented his thesis on Migros Ticaret (Turkey: MGROS) at European Investing Summit 2026.

Thesis summary:

Migros Ticaret is Türkiye’s leading organized food retailer, founded in 1964 with Switzerland’s Migros, listed since 1991 and controlled by Anadolu Group. Mesut sees it as one of the most direct ways to own the country’s growing middle class: 86.1 million people, government debt of 23.8% of GDP, household debt near 10%, and GDP per capita he expects to rise from about $18,000 to $25,000-30,000. MSCI Turkey trades at 6.7x forward earnings, against 11.5x for MSCI EM.

Excluding IAS 29, sales grew from $4.1 billion in 2021 to $9.5 billion in 2025, a 24% dollar CAGR, with $868 million of EBITDA. Migros’s share of modern FMCG rose from 14.3% to 16.8% over 2022-25, and it is the only Turkish food retailer with positive like-for-like traffic three years running. Its 3,830 stores span proximity, supermarket, 5M hypermarket and Macrocenter premium formats. It carries no bank debt and a Fitch AA+(tur) rating.

Mesut sees three growth engines. The network added 1,265 stores since 2021, with 180-200 openings targeted for 2026 and 462 districts still to enter. Online reached 23.1% of sales in 1H26, from 16.7% in 1H23, against about 8.5% at global peers, because stores double as hubs; hybrid stores show 35% larger baskets and 200 bps higher gross margin. In the ecosystem, management targets MoneyPay adding 0.30-0.35 points to net margin and Mimeda retail media about 0.5 points to EBITDA margin by 2030.

Migros is exiting a heavy investment period: management guides capex from 3.3% of sales to about 2.5%, EBITDA margin up 100 bps by 2030, and 5-7% real revenue growth in 2026, then high single digits. ROIC was 15% in 2025, policy pays out 50% of distributable profit, and any repurchased shares would be cancelled. Mesut backs Anadolu Group and CEO Özgür Tort, at Migros for over 17 years. The roughly $700 million of cash is supplier float, not excess.

On September 11, Migros traded at $11.4 (TL 547.5), a $2.1 billion market value, 0.24x EV/sales and about 4x EV/EBITDA versus a sector near 9x (about 6x counting leases and supplier credit as debt); the 16x reported P/E reflects IAS 29 charges. Value sits ~30% below 2024 while dollar sales are ~20% higher. Mesut’s target is $17.0 (TL 820), ~50% upside. Risks: dollar net profit fell from $250 million (2023) to $144 million (2025), the lira, a weak consumer and hard discounters.

Disclaimer

Colonial SFL: Prime CBD Offices at Half of Asset Value

MOI Global Equity Research — Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:23:08 GMT

Alirio Sendrea of Invexcel presented his thesis on Colonial SFL (Spain: COL) at European Investing Summit 2026.

Thesis summary:

Colonial SFL, long known in Spain as Inmobiliaria Colonial, is a €3.1 billion office REIT with a €12 billion portfolio, 96% of it in city centers: 63% Paris, 23% Madrid, 12% Barcelona. CriteriaCaixa, Qatar Investment Authority, Carlos Fernández González, the Puig family and Corporación Financiera Alba hold about 60% of the equity. Alirio sees rising rates, work-from-home and AI fears behind a bloodbath in European REITs that leaves Colonial at a 49% discount to EPRA NTA.

The moat is scarcity. In Paris, about €260 million of rents at 96% occupancy, Colonial owns five of the nine trophy office assets, and the city has flagged 1.2 million square meters of offices for residential conversion. Madrid (c.€110 million, 94%) and Barcelona (c.€50 million, prime CBD near 100%) see almost no new prime supply. Rental growth has beaten indexation by 350bp on average since 2017, 2022 excepted; AI firms took 30% of Colonial’s Paris take-up over 12 months.

Alirio sees visible, capital-light growth. Ramp-up assets Madnum and Haussmann plus four projects needing just under €200 million of capex, including a hospital fully pre-let to Sanitas and Mapfre, target 6-8% yields on cost and should add €72 million of rent by 2028 and €92 million by 2030, against €400 million in 2025. New fronts include a 51% Berlin JV with Generali at a 4.8% gross initial yield and Deep Labs, a pharma R&D platform targeting over €2.4 billion.

History taught Alirio that leverage is the main risk: in 2008 debt neared €9 billion at over 70% LTV and the shares fell 95%. Management, averaging 20+ years’ tenure, has since cut LTV to 37% and lifted recurring EPS from 11.6 to 33.6 cents (2015-2025). Net debt is 13.6x EBITDA, seen falling to 10-12x, with all debt fixed or hedged at 1.9%. A €700 million disposal program at ~4% yields, 60% secured, funds reinvestment at 6%+ yields on cost.

At €5.04, Colonial trades near half of NAV. Alirio lifts appraisal yields to about 6%, versus a market-implied 7% and 4-5% on private prime deals, for an NTA-based target of €7.6 per share. FFO per share rising from 33.6 cents (2025) to 42 cents (2030), at 17x, gives €7.2. He sees 47% upside, a 32% margin of safety and an 8% five-year IRR plus a 6.3% dividend yield. Risks include higher rates, REIT-regime politics, new Madrid supply after 2035, AI and leverage.