This is the eighth issue of This Week in Special Situations, our curated survey of actionable ideas. We do not attempt to profile every special situation. The universe of activist campaigns, buybacks, insider purchases, strategic reviews, and merger arbitrage spreads is vast, and most of it is noise. We filter for situations with a misaligned price or a noteworthy structural reason for market inefficiency.

Over time we will likely narrow this list further. That is where you come in. Please tell us which situations added value to your process and, just as importantly, which were of no consequence. Brutally honest feedback is the most valuable input we can receive. It will shape what we keep and what we cut. Our goal is to make this survey progressively more useful to you.

This week’s report (available as a slide deck) profiles 30 situations across four buckets: activist campaigns, capital return and insider conviction, M&A, and strategic alternatives. Below we highlight the handful that stand out on catalyst clarity, valuation, and asymmetry, followed by thesis summaries covering a broad cross-section of the report.

This publication is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The information is based on publicly available data and regulatory filings. Errors are not only possible but likely. Readers should conduct their own research.

The Situations That Stand Out

A few of this week’s situations rise above the rest on the combination of catalyst clarity, valuation, and asymmetry.

FTI Consulting (US: FCN) is a countercyclical restructuring franchise at 18x earnings, with the CEO and CFO buying shares while the company pursues aggressive buybacks. The board added $370 million in June, lifting cumulative authorization since 2016 to $2.6 billion, with ~$340 million unspent at June 30. FTI retired 2.6 million shares for ~$390 million in Q2 at an average ~$150, cutting the count to 27.7 million, an 8% sequential drop. That spend ran 2.8x the quarter’s $141 million of FCF, funded on a revolver the company then expanded to $1.5 billion on June 30. Gunby, CFO Eun Nam, and strategy chief Paul Linton bought $2.1 million between them on May 13 at $144, on top of Gunby’s $1.1 million buy last October.

Bread Financial (US: BFH) earns strong returns on tangible equity yet trades at under 9x earnings, while retiring more than 6% of shares in each of the last two quarters. Board authorizations since August 2025 total $1 billion: $200 million on August 27, 2025, another $200 million on October 23, 2025, and $600 million on February 26, 2026. Share count fell from 44.1 million at year-end 2025 to 41.3 million at March 31 and 38.7 million at June 30, a 12% cut in six months, driven by $150 million of Q1 open-market buying, 1.5 million shares retired on the capped-call unwind, and $241 million in Q2. That leaves $449 million open. The binding constraint is CET1 at 13%, and a $135 million preferred issue helped fund the Q2 buying.

Commercial Metals (US: CMC) is a rebar producer and steel recycler whose board just multiplied buyback capacity six-fold as it set its first formal mid-cycle targets. On August 5, 2026 the board added $600 million to the repurchase program, taking capacity from $117 million to roughly $717 million, or 9% of the $8.3 billion market cap. The same day CMC introduced FY29 mid-cycle targets of $1.65 to $1.80 billion core EBITDA, 15% to 16% margin, 13% to 14% ROIC, and $1.375 to $1.525 billion FCF. US rebar has climbed from roughly $780 per ton in February 2025 to about $950 by April 2026, and fiscal Q3 core EBITDA rose 79% to $354 million. The catch is cash: trailing FCF is roughly $405 million against $3.4 billion of debt and $2.5 billion of precast deals already funded.

Diversified Energy (US: DEC) is a US mature-well gas producer retiring 8% of its shares in seven months and paying a 9% dividend while the stock changes hands at book value. Shares outstanding fell from 76.98 million at year-end 2025 to 72.32 million at March 31 and 70.77 million at August 5. The February 25, 2026 authorization covers 7.8 million shares, 11% of the count, through March 2027. H1 operating cash flow of $258 million less $98 million of capex funded $82 million of buybacks and $43 million of dividends at 1.3x coverage, while $259 million of divestiture proceeds paid for $262 million of asset purchases.

Yelp (US: YELP) trades at 6x EV/EBITDA and 12x forward earnings while retiring stock faster than in any quarter since 2019. Shares outstanding fell 7% in one quarter, from 60.0 million at year-end 2025 to 55.9 million at March 31, 2026, and to 55.0 million by May 1. The board added $500 million to the authorization on February 10, taking cumulative capacity to $2.45 billion with ~$390 million left. Yelp spent $125 million on 5.09 million shares in Q1 at an average $24.57, buying the February dip. That is roughly $500 million annualized against trailing FCF of ~$280 million. Q1 FCF of $45 million covered a third of the quarter’s repurchases.

Quick Thesis Summaries

The capsule theses below cover a broad cross-section of this week’s issue. Each, along with additional special situations, is developed fully in the downloadable PDF slide deck.

• ADT (US: ADT) — Apollo’s exit was the mechanism behind a 9% quarterly share-count drop, with ADT buying 29 million shares directly out of the secondary at $7.25, and officers including the CFO buying on the open market at ~$6.75-$6.90, leaving $885 million of authorization.

• SEACOR Marine (US: SMHI) — The board opened a strategic review on July 29 after Pointilist Family Office (7%) argued for a sale citing broker-appraised NAV above $20 per share against a $9.50 stock, with Q2 vessel sales realizing gains of $31 million on $45 million of proceeds, well above book.

• Smith & Nephew (UK: SN) — Cevian Capital has built to 14% of the vote (119.2 million shares) at an average cost near 1,053p over two years, and with the shares at 1,109p after a guidance cut to about 4% underlying revenue growth, the question is whether it now presses publicly for an orthopaedics separation.

• Nano Dimension (US: NNDM) — Murchinson’s 8% stake flipped the board on July 17, and the new directors now decide between Tang Capital’s $1.60 all-cash bid, a 4% spread to the $1.55 close, and an $890 million reverse merger, with the stock at a 22% discount to net cash of $1.97 per share.

• Anheuser-Busch InBev (US: BUD) — Board authorized a $6 billion buyback on October 29, 2025 with a 24-month window; $1.9 billion spent by July 31, or 32% of the program, tracks below the pace needed to exhaust the authorization by late October 2027 unless the run rate accelerates from $185 million a month.

• Honeywell Aerospace (US: HONA) — The new spin-off authorized an open-ended $3.5 billion buyback equal to 5% of market cap on July 23, but management ranks repurchases fourth behind growth, M&A, and dividends, and second-half FCF guidance of $1.0 to $1.5 billion against $15 billion of net debt argues against full execution.

• Tenet Healthcare (US: THC) — A $2 billion authorization increase on July 23 takes cumulative capacity to $5 billion since mid-2024, about 24% of the $21 billion market cap, after adjusted EPS rose 52% to $6.12 and management raised full-year FCF guidance to $2.7 to $3.0 billion.

• Pinterest (US: PINS) — Elliott’s $1 billion investment came as convertible notes rather than equity, funding a share-count reduction of 14% in Q1, but Q2 buybacks slowed to $58 million against $2 billion of remaining authorization and the stock still trades at 46x trailing earnings.

• Paycom Software (US: PAYC) — A fresh $2 billion open-ended authorization, 25% of the $8.1 billion market cap, follows $1.4 billion of repurchases in six months against trailing FCF near $916 million, part revolver-funded after the facility was expanded to $1.46 billion.

• Pelagos Insurance Capital (US: PLGO) — The renamed Fidelis cut shares 12% in one quarter, largely via negotiated purchases from exiting sponsor CVC. At $25.50 per share, the stock trades roughly in line with book value, with a $400 million buyback authorization still running.

• MidCap Financial Investment (US: MFIC) — This Apollo-managed BDC retired 8% of its shares in Q1 at an average $10.73, roughly 23% below NAV, adding $0.24 per share of NAV accretion, then exhausted the $100 million authorization by April 13; at 0.69x NAV the catalyst is whether the board funds another tranche.

• Globalstar (US: GSAT) — Amazon’s $90 per share cash-or-stock buyout leaves a 5% spread to blended consideration at the ~$83.40 price, with HSR cleared July 17 but FCC, Team Telecom, and French approvals outstanding and a date of April 2027 extendable to 2028.

• easyJet (UK: EZJ) — Apollo’s 715p indicative proposal and Castlelake’s 690p both face a 5pm August 7 deadline to firm up or walk, leaving an 11% spread at the 647p close against a 399p unaffected price that marks the downside if both bidders stand down.

• Payoneer Global (US: PAYO) — Nuvei’s $7.40 per share cash deal trades at a 4% spread with HSR early termination granted July 28 and holders of about 19% of the vote locked up, though management still guides to a mid-2027 close and the special meeting is unscheduled.

• Pinewood Technologies (UK: PINE) — Ridgeview’s 448p non-binding cash proposal values the company at £545 million and leaves a 4% spread, with Rule 2.6 forcing a firm offer or withdrawal by August 21 and 49% of the register already backing the deal in letters of intent.

• Monash IVF (Australia: MVF) — The board rejected the Genesis Capital and WHSP consortium’s A$0.90 best-and-final bid in April, and at A$0.70 the stock sits 28% below that lapsed price with the consortium’s 20% stake complicating any rival approach.

• Pharos Energy (UK: PHAR) — Serica’s recommended 34p aggregate offer leaves a 7% spread at 31p, with Aberforth irrevocably committed on 14% of shares and remaining break risk concentrated in Vietnamese and Egyptian regulatory clearance ahead of a mid-2027 long-stop.

• Corteva (US: CTVA) — The October 1 separation of Vylor, which carries the larger seed business at $7.6 billion of first-half sales and $3 billion of segment EBITDA, remains on track after the Form 10 filing, and the parent stub fell 12% on July 31 on a revenue miss, the only entry point before terms and the record date are set.

• Mobility Global (US: MBGL) — The S&P Global spin-off was placed in the SmallCap 600 despite a $6.2 billion market cap, forcing large-cap index funds to sell into a first-day volume spike of 97 million shares, and first standalone results land August 7 against consensus of $0.45 EPS on about $474 million of revenue.

• Middleby (US: MIDD) — Post the Midera spin, the pure-play foodservice business trades at roughly 21x continuing-operations earnings of $289 million, a number screens miss because a $135 million discontinued-operations loss pushed reported Q1 GAAP results negative, while the share count is down 16% since February 2025.

• Resideo Technologies (US: REZI) — The August 3 ADI spin left RemainCo at roughly 3.4x to 4.0x gross leverage against management’s 3.0x target, with CD&R’s preferred conversion price re-struck 28% lower to $18.844 and a lock-up extended to 2028, so buybacks stay off the table until deleveraging lands.

• Solventum (US: SOLV) — Board announced August 5 intent to separate the Health Information Systems segment within 12 to 18 months, advised by Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs; Trian holds just under 5% and pushed for cost cuts and divestitures in April, 3M retains a 15% non-voting stake.

• Churchill Downs (US: CHDN) — Macquarie is running a sale of nine regional casinos generating about $330 million of EBITDA, which at regional multiples of 6-9x implies $2-3 billion of proceeds against $4.6 billion of net debt, refocusing the company on racing and TwinSpires.

• Bioventus (US: BVS) — An unsolicited take-private approach plus additional expressions of interest triggered a board review with Evercore advising, and the stock rose 18% on the August 5 disclosure with net leverage now below 2.0x and Smith & Nephew already holding 20% as a legacy shareholder.

The deck is available to members (scroll up to download, or sign up below).

Subscribe now

Featured Events

• Latticework 2026, Chicago, Illinois (Nov. 10-11, 2026)

• Ideaweek 2027 (FULLY BOOKED), St. Moritz (Feb. 1-4, 2027)

• The Zurich Project 2027 (COMING SOON) (Jun. 1-3, 2027)

Share Latticework by MOI Global

Enjoying Latticework? Help us make it even more special.

• Share Latticework (simply click the above button!)

• Introduce us to a thoughtful speaker or podcast guest

• Be considered for an interview or idea presentation

• Volunteer to host a small group dinner in your city

• Become a sponsor of Latticework / MOI Global

Volunteer by reaching out directly to John (john@moiglobal.com).

This is the seventh issue of This Week in Special Situations, our curated survey of actionable ideas. We do not attempt to profile every special situation in the market. The universe of activist campaigns, buybacks, insider purchases, strategic reviews, and merger arbitrage spreads is vast, and most of it is noise. We filter for situations with a misaligned price or a noteworthy structural reason for market inefficiency.

Over time we will likely narrow this list further. That is where you come in. Please tell us which situations added value to your process and, just as importantly, which were of no consequence. Brutally honest feedback is the most valuable input we can receive. It will shape what we keep and what we cut. Our goal is to make this survey progressively more useful to you.

This week’s report (available as a slide deck) profiles 34 situations across five buckets: activist campaigns, capital return and insider conviction, strategic alternatives, M&A, and corporate separations. Below we highlight the handful that stand out on catalyst clarity, valuation, and asymmetry, followed by thesis summaries covering a broad cross-section of the report.

This publication is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The information is based on publicly available data and regulatory filings. Errors are not only possible but likely. Readers should conduct their own research.

The Situations That Stand Out

A few of this week’s situations rise above the rest on the combination of catalyst clarity, valuation, and asymmetry.

Smith & Nephew (UK: SN) is an undermanaged three-division medtech conglomerate where Cevian Capital has now built its largest position ever, at 14% of shares outstanding, explicitly targeting a breakup that would separate Orthopaedics, Sports Medicine and ENT, and Advanced Wound Management into focused units. The July 27 Schedule 13D/A discloses 119 million shares, or 14% of shares outstanding, aggregate cost near $1.67 billion, built from a 5% initial disclosure two years ago. Top-20 holders have already pushed publicly for divesting Orthopaedics, and management signaled openness to a split as far back as March 2025. Cevian’s track record on governance and margin outcomes is strong: an Ericsson board seat and margin discipline after a multi-year campaign, ABB Power Grids sold to Hitachi after Cevian pressed for the spinoff, Vodafone portfolio simplification substantially executed following the 2022 stake build. Insider ownership is roughly 0.2%, so the board has little defensive alignment against Cevian and its aligned top-20 register. Half-year results on August 4 and the 13D anniversary dates are the near-term catalysts for board-seat or breakup demands to surface.

CCC Intelligent Solutions (US: CCCS) is a live Morgan Stanley-run sale of a mission-critical auto-insurance-claims software platform whose stock trades at roughly 63% of its year-ago value, with Elliott building a private-equity stake ahead of the process becoming public. Reuters reported on July 9 that CCC hired Morgan Stanley and had already approached prospective buyers, and Bloomberg reported one day later that Elliott had built its stake before the sale news, routed through its private-equity arm rather than its public-activist unit, a signal of bidder or co-investor positioning rather than a campaign for board change. The stock closed near $6.15 on July 29 against a $3.6 billion market cap, having round-tripped violently on the news. Advent International’s November 2025 full exit at $7.79 per share sits well above the current price. Q2 results before the open today are the first data point inside the process, with consensus at $0.10 EPS on $284 million revenue following a 43% adjusted EBITDA margin in Q1.

Chemed (US: CHE) is a two-business conglomerate whose activist-led breakup thesis rests on a low-growth, margin-eroding Roto-Rooter segment sitting inside an otherwise high-quality VITAS hospice business, with a formal Barington strategic-review demand now on the table. Barington Capital’s July 20-21 letter from CEO James Mitarotonda demanded a strategic review of the VITAS-Roto-Rooter pairing, a zero-based review of the $70 million corporate cost base, and a board refresh requiring at least two 20-plus-year directors to step down at the 2027 annual meeting. Q2 results one week later gave management fresh cover: revenue rose 9% to $673 million, adjusted EPS jumped 42% to $6.06, and full-year EPS guidance was raised to 25.75. Roto-Rooter, the segment Barington targets, grew only 3% and lost another 77 basis points of margin, keeping the breakup logic intact. Barington’s disclosed stake is roughly 0.4%, so this is a letter-writing campaign rather than a proxy fight yet, and the near-term catalyst is the board’s public response.

Quick Thesis Summaries

The capsule theses below cover a broad cross-section of this week’s issue. Each, along with additional special situations, is developed fully in the downloadable PDF slide deck.

• Nano Dimension (US: NNDM) — Murchinson now controls the board after a July 17 settlement, with no strategic-review verdict yet on the contested $890 million Infinite Epigenetics reverse merger; watch for the review outcome as the next binary catalyst at a stock trading at 0.66x tangible book with a negative enterprise value.

• Pinterest (US: PINS) — Board authorized a $3.5 billion buyback backstopped by a $1 billion Elliott convertible note at a $22.72 initial conversion price, retiring 14% of shares in a single quarter and delivering roughly $2.0 billion of buybacks executed in H1 2026.

• BASF (Germany: BAS) — New €1.0 billion share buyback tranche launches August 2026 and runs through April 2027, equal to about 2% of a €45 billion market cap, funded 7x over by €7.8 billion trailing FCF alongside €1.6 billion of Q3 2026 bond and loan early repayments.

• Wipro (US: WIT) — Record tender-offer buyback at ₹250 per share retired 6% of equity, with promoters tendering pro rata to hold their stake near 73%, funded entirely from free reserves rather than debt.

• Yext (US: YEXT) — Completed modified Dutch auction tender retired 20% of shares at $5.75, and the stock now trades below the clearing price, giving new buyers effective entry below the price a self-selecting group of holders was willing to accept.

• Docebo (US: DCBO) — $70 million fixed-price self-tender at $20.40 per share expires August 26, targeting 14% of shares outstanding while the stock trades roughly 7% above the tender price at $21.87, meaning proration is likely.

• New Mountain Finance (US: NMFC) — Genuine buyback, not merger dilution: shares outstanding fell 7% quarter-over-quarter to 95.6 million as the BDC retired stock at a 27% discount to NAV, one of the largest BDC-buyback signals of the year.

• MidCap Financial Investment (US: MFIC) — Apollo-managed BDC cut shares outstanding 8% quarter-over-quarter via buybacks, exhausting a $100 million authorization at a steep discount to NAV.

• Ibotta (US: IBTA) — Board has repurchased roughly $310 million of stock since August 2024 while shares outstanding fell more than 5% in consecutive quarters, an unusually aggressive pace for a recently IPO’d digital-marketing platform.

• i3 Verticals (US: IIIV) — Two consecutive quarters of 5%+ sequential share-count reduction, backed by a fresh $100 million authorization following last year’s exit from the payments business, marking a genuine narrowing of the equity base.

• Diversified Energy (US: DEC) — Aggressive buyback pace cut shares outstanding 6% quarter-over-quarter, with a live authorization covering roughly 10% of the share count still two-thirds unused.

• Yelp (US: YELP) — Repurchases cut shares outstanding 7% quarter-over-quarter, with a $500 million authorization added in February giving the buyback more runway than the current share price reflects.

• Alithya (Canada: ALYA) — Board launched a strategic review after concluding the market price undervalues the IT consulting firm, opening a defined process at a company small enough for real optionality.

• SEACOR Marine (US: SMHI) — Board launched a formal strategic-alternatives review on July 29, 2026 after its largest shareholder publicly demanded a sale, establishing a defined process at a still-cyclical offshore supply operator.

• KKR Real Estate Finance Trust (US: KREF) — Board formed a special committee to review a sale or merger after book value fell 14% in a single quarter, an unusually clean setup where a defined process and a fresh valuation baseline arrive together.

• Pinewood Technologies (UK: PINE) — Shares trade at a 4% spread to Ridgeview’s 448p possible cash offer with a Rule 2.6 PUSU deadline of 21 August 2026, a compact UK Takeover Code timeline.

• Union Pacific (US: UNP) — Canadian National dropped opposition to the $85 billion Norfolk Southern deal, clearing a key regulatory obstacle while the arb spread still prices in real STB risk that most large-cap arbs would consider mispriced.

• Domo (US: DOMO) — Asset sale of the AI and Data Platform Business to Progress Software leaves a cash-and-NOL shell at a ~25% discount to guided $4.84 per-share post-closing net cash, before assigning any value to a $900 million+ NOL pool.

• Honeywell (US: HON) — Three-way breakup complete with the Aerospace spin, leaving a leaner automation pure-play at a distorted single-digit trailing P/E as the market re-underwrites each piece.

• Flex (US: FLEX) — Full leadership slate now named for both sides of the CPI spin, keeping the tax-free separation on track for Q1 calendar 2027 and reducing execution risk on one of this year’s largest US industrial separations.

The deck is available to members (scroll up to download, or sign up below).

Subscribe now

Featured Events

• Latticework 2026, Chicago, Illinois (Nov. 10-11, 2026)

• Ideaweek 2027 (FULLY BOOKED), St. Moritz (Feb. 1-4, 2027)

• The Zurich Project 2027 (COMING SOON) (Jun. 1-3, 2027)

Share Latticework by MOI Global

Enjoying Latticework? Help us make it even more special.

• Share Latticework (simply click the above button!)

• Introduce us to a thoughtful speaker or podcast guest

• Be considered for an interview or idea presentation

• Volunteer to host a small group dinner in your city

• Become a sponsor of Latticework / MOI Global

Volunteer by reaching out directly to John (john@moiglobal.com).

Read more

Read more

Read more

This is the third issue of This Week in Special Situations, our curated survey of actionable ideas. The format remains an experiment. We do not attempt to profile every special situation in the market. The universe of activist campaigns, buybacks, insider purchases, strategic reviews, and merger arbitrage spreads is vast, and most of it is noise. We filter for situations where a misaligned price or a structural mechanic gives an intelligent investor something concrete to underwrite.

Over time we will likely narrow this list further. That is where you come in. Tell us which situations added value to your process and, just as importantly, which were of no consequence. Brutally honest feedback is the most valuable input we can receive. It will shape what we keep and what we cut. Our goal is to make this survey progressively more useful to you.

This week’s report profiles 27 situations across five buckets: activist campaigns, capital return and insider conviction, strategic alternatives, mergers and acquisitions, and corporate separations. Below we highlight the handful that stand out on catalyst clarity, valuation, and asymmetry, followed by quick thesis summaries covering a broad cross-section of the report. Each idea, along with additional special situations not summarized here, is developed in depth in the slide deck included below.

This publication is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The information is based on publicly available data and regulatory filings. No due diligence has been performed on the companies profiled. Errors are not only possible but likely. Readers should conduct their own research.

The Situations That Stand Out

A few of this week’s situations rise above the rest on the combination of catalyst clarity, valuation, and asymmetry.

easyJet (LSE: EZJ) is a binary event on a hard clock. Castlelake, backed by Brookfield, has tabled four escalating cash bids (560p, 600p, 625p, 650p) that the board has rejected, and Castlelake must announce a firm intention to offer or walk away by 5:00pm BST on July 5, 2026 under the extended PUSU. Shares at ~555p trade ~95p below the last rejected bid, so the market is pricing meaningful deal-failure risk. Two structural gates matter. First, EU airline ownership law forces Castlelake and Brookfield into a 49% economic stake with 51% held by two EU-national individuals; easyJet’s board has called the structure “opaque.” Second, founder Sir Stelios Haji-Ioannou’s ~15% stake is decisive; no hostile bid can clear the 90% compulsory-acquisition threshold without him, and he has not publicly endorsed either side. Institutional anchors have signalled a floor near 700p. If Castlelake walks, Rule 2.8 bars a further approach for six months and the pre-bid 394p becomes the reversion anchor.

Ziff Davis (Nasdaq: ZD) is the cleanest capital-return story of the week. The company retired more than 15% of shares over the past year, including 4.9M shares for $174M in FY2025 and another 1.2M shares for $51.6M in Q1 2026, on a Fwd P/E of 9.9x. The June 2026 close of the $1.2B Accenture sale of the Connectivity division (Ookla, Downdetector) swings pro forma net cash from negative $260M to approximately $940M against a ~$1.9B market cap, giving management dry powder equal to roughly half of equity value for accelerated repurchases or acquisitions. Continuing operations lose the divested segment’s $60M-per-quarter EBITDA contribution, so the near-term question is how aggressively the buyback offsets that dilution. Insider ownership is thin at 2.23%, but the authorization retains 9.7M shares under a February 2036 deadline.

Seer (Nasdaq: SEER) is the sharpest activist setup in the issue. The Radoff-JEC Group, holding ~7.8%, has been rejected three times on escalating bids that culminated in $2.40 cash plus an 80%-of-proceeds CVR, priced below Seer’s own $220M cash and investments against a market cap of roughly $91M and negative enterprise value near -$128M. After the last rejection the activists offered to withdraw the proxy fight in exchange for a 20M-share, $2.50 tender (36% of shares outstanding); the board has not responded. The contest now goes to a shareholder vote at the July 28, 2026 annual meeting, with three activist nominees on the ballot. Q1 cash burn ran ~$11M against the treasury that the activists’ own math funds their offer from. The binary is board refresh into a sale process, or continued burn on non-consensus proteomics.

Stratus Properties (Nasdaq: STRS) is the rare situation in this issue with a declared distribution range. Stockholders approved a Plan of Liquidation on June 1, 2026 (4,905,081 for, 5,612 against), and the board estimates total per-share distributions of $29.73 to $37.69 on ~1,500 acres of Austin-area development property; the current price is roughly $28.75. The $5.00 initial distribution is payable July 20 to holders of record July 13, and a $46.5M sale of Jones Crossing retail on June 26 delivered early proof of execution. Two structural risks matter. Every future distribution requires Fifth Third Bank consent under debt covenants that cap dividends at $1.0M absent lender approval. And Stratus intends to file Form 25 on or about July 31, 2026 with Nasdaq delisting around August 10, moving the security to OTC illiquidity and, following a Form 15, terminating periodic disclosures during the wind-down.

Quick Thesis Summaries

The capsule theses below cover a broad cross-section of this week’s issue. Each, along with additional special situations, is developed fully in the member deck included below.

• Fermi (NASDAQ: FRMI) — Ousted co-founder Toby Neugebauer controls ~23% and is running a proxy fight for board control and an independent sale of the 7,500-acre Amarillo AI power campus, with a 75-day dual-path process targeted at the June 30 special meeting and a hard December 31, 2026 Texas Tech ground-lease deadline requiring at least one binding 200 MW tenant.

• Genesco (NYSE: GCO) — Radoff-Jumana Group at ~9.1% is contesting two board seats at the July 21, 2026 annual meeting, targeting two directors who oversaw cumulative TSR of -53.4% and -50.2% on a $377M market cap.

• Nano Dimension (Nasdaq: NNDM) — Murchinson’s sixth campaign culminates in a July 31 EGM to strip three directors and block the contested Infinite Epigenetics merger, at a company with net cash exceeding its $313M market cap.

• Seer (Nasdaq: SEER) — Radoff-JEC’s third rejected bid at $2.40 cash plus an 80%-of-proceeds CVR goes to a board-control vote at the July 28 annual meeting, with the company sitting on $220M of cash and a negative -$128M EV.

• Identiv (Nasdaq: INVE) — A three-year Bleichroeder campaign produced a June 24 asset-sale agreement, leaving a $64M market cap stub trading at a 49% discount to its post-deal cash position.

• Ziff Davis (Nasdaq: ZD) — More than 15% of shares retired in twelve months, with a fresh $1.2B Accenture cash close taking pro forma net cash to ~$940M against a ~$1.9B market cap on a 9.9x Fwd P/E.

• United Parks & Resorts (NYSE: PRKS) — A $500M buyback is being executed against a 57.9% Hill Path stake, structurally amplifying per-share accretion on a $2.2B market cap.

• Aptiv (NYSE: APTV) — A $3B accelerated share repurchase retired 9.2% of shares in a single quarter, alongside the Versigent spin-off and a $1.37B debt tender, at a 7.4x forward P/E.

• Pitney Bowes (NYSE: PBI) — Formal Phase 2 strategic review at the $2.4B mailing and logistics business, with BofA Securities, Goldman Sachs, and Sullivan & Cromwell engaged and a full sale explicitly on the table.

• FMC Corp. (NYSE: FMC) — Strategic review concludes with a $403M Tessenderlo minority placement and a ~$1B debt paydown that appears fully funded, avoiding a distressed full sale at ~6.5x forward P/E.

• Stratus Properties (Nasdaq: STRS) — Board-approved Plan of Liquidation with a $5.00 initial distribution payable July 20 and an estimated total range of $29.73–$37.69 per share against a ~$28.75 price, gated by Fifth Third Bank consent.

• Kakaku.com (Japan: 2371) — LY/Bain’s binding ¥3,384 offer (with a ¥3,500 KDDI-conditional uplift) forces the board to neutral against EQT’s live ¥3,000 tender, with Digital Garage and KDDI locking 38.1% under non-tendering agreements.

• Warner Bros. Discovery (Nasdaq: WBD) — Paramount Skydance’s $31/share all-cash offer trades at a ~16% gross spread ahead of Q3 2026 close, with EU and UK clearance the last regulatory gate and a $0.25/quarter ticking fee kicking in after September 30.

• easyJet (LSE: EZJ) — Castlelake’s four rejected bids culminate in a July 5 PUSU deadline with shares trading roughly 95p below the last offer, making deliverability the dominant variable at a £4.2B market cap.

• Tate & Lyle (LSE: TATE) — Ingredion’s recommended 595p cash scheme plus up to 20p permitted dividends (615p total) leaves a 6.8% spread to the current 557p price on a £2.47B cap.

• Ceconomy (Germany: CEC) — JD.com’s €4.60 cash bid trades at an ~11% spread ahead of an October 2, 2026 EU FSR decision deadline, with 85.2% closely held and the FSR probe the last remaining condition.

• Genco Shipping (NYSE: GNK) — Diana Shipping’s escalated implied value of $27.34/share is being rejected by the Genco board as below NAV, versus the current cash offer of $24.80 on a $1.08B cap.

• Nagarro (Germany: NA9) — Persistent Systems’ €81 all-cash offer trades at a ~9% spread with both boards recommending and ~21% of shares already locked up.

• Pierre et Vacances (Paris: VAC) — Mubadala Capital’s €1.90 all-cash voluntary tender is live with a July 17, 2026 shareholder commitment deadline at Europe’s largest proximity-tourism operator.

• High Templar Tech (NYSE: HTT) — Issuer Dutch auction cleared at the $3.20 top of range and the stock trades at $2.57, a 19.7% discount to the accepted price with positive net cash of ~$375M behind it.

• Capricorn Energy (LSE: CNE) — Genel Energy’s recommended $360M cash acquisition is live at a 33% premium to undisturbed, with a competing bidder’s July 29 PUSU deadline still open.

• Ramsdens Holdings (AIM: RFX) — FirstCash’s recommended cash scheme at 600p (plus up to 9p in permitted dividends) values the equity at up to £206M, a 33% premium to the pre-approach 453p.

• Zinnwald Lithium (AIM: ZNWD) — AMG Lithium’s recommended 10p cash-and-share scheme carries a 63% premium with shareholder and court votes scheduled for July 13 and an effective date of July 27.

• Honeywell Technologies (Nasdaq: HON) — Aerospace spin completed June 29 on a 1-for-2 ratio, distributing Honeywell Aerospace (HONA) and leaving HON as a pure-play automation stub with $70.3B market cap and 8.9x P/B.

• Middleby (NASDAQ: MIDD) — Midera Food Processing separates July 6 in a 1-for-1 tax-free distribution, creating a classic small-SpinCo forced-selling setup at a $7.8B market cap and 15x forward P/E.

The full deck is included below. We look forward to your feedback.

Read more

We are trialing a new format: a curated selection of special situations. This is an experiment; we do not attempt to profile every special situation in the market. The universe of activist campaigns, buybacks, insider purchases, strategic reviews, and merger arbitrage spreads is vast, and most of it is noise. Instead, we filter for situations that strike us as actionable and potentially rewarding, where a a misaligned price or a structural mechanic gives an intelligent investor something concrete to underwrite.

Over time, we will likely narrow this list further. That is where you come in. Please let us know which situations were particularly value-added to your process and, just as importantly, which were of no consequence to you. Brutally honest feedback is the most valuable input we can receive. It will shape what we keep and what we cut. Our goal is to make this survey of ideas progressively more valuable to you.

This week’s report (available for download as a slide deck) profiles 26 situations across four buckets: activist campaigns, capital return and insider conviction, strategic alternatives, and mergers and acquisitions. Below we highlight the handful that seem most actionable and compelling, followed by quick thesis summaries on a broad cross-section of the report. Each idea, along with additional special situations not summarized here, is profiled in depth in the slide deck included below.

This publication is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The information is based on publicly available data and regulatory filings. No due diligence has been performed on the companies profiled. Errors are not only possible but likely. Readers should conduct their own research.

The Situations That Stand Out

A few of this week’s situations rise above the rest on the combination of catalyst clarity, valuation, and asymmetry.

Oasis Management’s escalating campaign at Kadokawa is the most interesting activist event in the issue. Oasis lost the June 24 CEO removal vote but raised its stake to 15.25% the next day, with stated intent to add more than 5% additional pending regulatory approval. The thesis is structural rather than personality-driven: Kadokawa cedes the global economics of FromSoftware’s IP (Elden Ring at 30M+ units sold, 90%+ of revenue from outside Japan) to Bandai Namco for overseas distribution, while EPS under the current CEO has fallen roughly 89% and ROE has compressed from 8.2% to 0.5%. A Japan Fair Trade Commission corrective order against the company in June adds governance ammunition. With the 2027 AGM in view and a credible activist actively buying, pressure intensifies rather than dissipates.

On deep-value capital return, Accenture stands out. The Board raised the FY26 repurchase program to $7.5 billion with all buybacks to complete by August 31, retiring 9.7% of the market cap in a single fiscal year. Total FY26 planned shareholder returns of $11.5 billion are up 38% year over year. The stock has fallen roughly 59% from its 52-week high, leaving it at 9.8x trailing and ~9.4x forward earnings against a 25-30x historical multiple. FY26 free cash flow guidance of $10.8-11.5 billion comfortably covers the buyback, and a fresh authorization for the remaining ~$1 billion of board capacity is expected in September. This is not a fashionable name today, which is precisely why the price embeds so much pessimism.

In strategic alternatives, Rayonier Advanced Materials offers the cleanest set-up. Morgan Stanley is running a formal review announced April 20, the board rejected an $11-12/share all-cash bid from American Industrial Partners in late 2025 at roughly a 100% premium to the then-price, and a 3% activist (Mill Pond Capital) sent a public letter on June 17 urging an outright sale and citing $55-60M of corporate overhead to strip out. The new CEO appointed June 22 has an inducement grant structured as leveraged performance units (0% vest below 25% stock growth, 250% at 100% growth), which works equally well in a sale outcome. The company’s $695M of net debt and seven straight years of losses are real, but the price already reflects them, and the board is on record describing the review as “well underway.”

Among merger arbitrage names, Cordel Group offers a hard-catalyst setup with the clearest near-term resolution. Vossloh’s recommended 12.4p all-cash scheme has Court and General Meetings on June 30 with 48.9% of shares locked under irrevocables (including 17.9% from directors). The gross spread at 11.9p is approximately 4.2%, expected to close over six to ten weeks; the only outstanding condition is UK NSIA clearance, with a long-stop of February 13, 2027. A German railway-infrastructure group acquiring a UK rail-digital-inspection technology company is a moderate, not severe, national-security profile, which is why the spread is tight but not zero.

Quick Thesis Summaries

The capsule theses below cover a broad cross-section of this week’s issue. Each, along with additional special situations, is developed fully in the member deck included below.

• Kadokawa (Japan: 9468) — Oasis at 15.25% (up from 13.76%) with intent to add another 5%+ lost the June 24 CEO vote but is escalating into the 2027 AGM, anchored by the unmonetized global economics of FromSoftware’s IP.

• Align Technology (US: ALGN) — Elliott has built a significant stake in the Invisalign maker, down 75% from its 2021 peak, trading at 14x forward earnings versus a historical multiple well above 20x with a clean balance sheet and 6% insider ownership.

• Bunzl (UK: BNZL) — Elliott’s near-5% stake is demanding a 10% (~£850M) buyback and a North America strategic review; insider ownership of 2% removes any structural defense, with H1 2026 results the next read-through.

• Seer (US: SEER) — The Radoff-JEC Group (7.7%) is contesting three board seats July 28 at a company whose $95M market cap implies a negative value for the Proteograph platform given roughly $171M of net cash on the balance sheet.

• Central Plains Bancshares (US: CPBI) — Stilwell (9.7%) is pushing a board nominee and a formal 10%-of-shares buyback at a $79M Nebraska thrift trading at 0.8x book, with 79 prior bank activism positions skewing heavily to M&A exits.

• Accenture (US: ACN) — A $7.5B FY26 buyback retires 9.7% of the cap in one fiscal year at 9-10x earnings, with a fresh ~$1B authorization expected in September.

• Visteon (US: VC) — An $800M authorization equal to 26.9% of market cap through 2029, backed by ~$650-670M of excess cash; stock trades at 0.72x EV/Sales, the cheapest among major automotive electronics suppliers.

• ICF International (US: ICFI) — A $400M total authorization with $165M of immediately available capacity (14% of market cap) at ~9.2x guided non-GAAP earnings; pace will be governed by 3.1x net leverage.

• Orchid Island Capital (US: ORC) — A 16-fold expansion of buyback capacity to 13.3% of market cap at a 5.5% discount to estimated book value, mechanically accretive to NAV per share for a 20.4%-yielding Agency mortgage REIT.

• SPS Commerce (US: SPSC) — Morgan Stanley formally retained to run a sale at a stock 61% off its high; a 30-40% takeout premium implies ~$2.6-2.9B, well within PE underwriting range given recurring revenue and 10x EV/EBITDA.

• Rayonier Advanced Materials (US: RYAM) — Formal review, prior $11-12/share AIP bid rejected, new CEO with sale-aligned comp, activist letter, and Morgan Stanley engaged.

• Bumble (US: BMBL) — Confirmed sale process via Morgan Stanley at 0.27x EV/Revenue and 0.9x EV/EBITDA; Blackstone at ~22% is incentivized to support exit.

• Humm Group (Australia: HUM) — After Credit Corp’s bid collapsed, the company is exploring a breakup; the current A$0.46 price sits at a 20% discount to Abercrombie’s prior A$0.58 indication and 46% below consensus.

• SEGRO (UK: SGRO) — Prologis’s 925p all-share indicative offer (24.6% premium) rejected; under Rule 2.6(a), Prologis must firm up or walk away by 5pm London on July 22.

• easyJet (UK: EZJ) — Castlelake’s 650p fifth proposal rejected; board granted limited data access and extended PUSU to July 5, with major shareholders reportedly anchoring on a minimum of 700p.

• Genco Shipping (US: GNK) — Diana Shipping’s hostile $24.80 tender expires today after three board rejections and a full board re-election; the realistic path is a higher negotiated deal, with analyst NAV at $26.66-$27.10.

• Fnac Darty (France: FNAC) — EP Group’s recommended €36 (€35 ex-dividend) cash offer is live with EU merger control as the sole remaining gate; spread of approximately 4.2% at €34.55.

• Pierre et Vacances (France: VAC) — Mubadala’s binding €1.90 offer (up to €2.00 with squeeze-out bonus) requires 80% commitment by July 17 or lapses; analyst targets at €2.30 frame the buyer as opportunistic.

• Ramsdens (UK: RFX) — FirstCash subsidiary’s recommended 609p scheme is gated by FCA, CMA, and court approvals into H2 2026; ~1.4% spread to the 600p cash component (3% to 609p total) reflects board recommendation and FCA precedent.

• Pharos Energy (UK: PHAR) — Ratio Petroleum’s recommended scheme at up to 28p with 41.76% irrevocables (including all directors); ~10% gross spread to the cash-plus-special-dividend component, gated by Vietnam and Egypt regulatory approvals into H1 2027.

• Destination XL (US: DXLG) — Camac/Zodiac’s hostile $0.84 tender extended to July 24 after 16% of shares tendered; the stock at $0.65 prices in a 29% discount to the offer, with diligence access the gating item.

• Cordel (UK: CRDL) — Vossloh’s recommended 12.4p scheme votes on June 30 with 48.9% irrevocable support; ~4.2% gross spread, NSIA clearance the sole open condition.

• Melrose Industries (UK: MRO) — Post-Dowlais demerger, a pure-play GKN Aerospace targeting £5B revenue and £600M FCF by 2029; at 470p, ~15x 2025 earnings prices in supply-chain headwinds against a 2029 target implying ~70p+ EPS on a declining share count.

The full deck is included below. We look forward to your feedback.

Read more