Latticework by MOI Global: In-depth investment ideas

Oro: Founder-Led, Undervalued Japanese ERP Software Leader With Catalysts for Re-Rating

MOI Global Equity Research — Fri, 22 May 2026 17:51:51 GMT

Jiro Yasu of Varecs Partners, a Tokyo-based value investor with a market-beating record and AUM of ~US$700 million, presented his investment thesis on Oro Co (Japan: 3983) at Asian Investing Summit 2026.

Thesis summary:

Oro is a Tokyo-listed software company whose high-quality Cloud Solutions ERP franchise is obscured by a struggling Marketing Solutions segment, a cash-heavy balance sheet, and a resulting conglomerate discount.

Jiro sees an opportunity to own a founder-led Japanese compounder at a bargain price, with catalysts tied to a potential Marketing Solutions divestiture and further capital-allocation improvement. Founders Atsushi Kawata (CEO, 37.67% ownership) and Yasuhisa Hino (17.02% ownership) started the company in 1999 and, per Jiro, engage openly on shareholder-return and portfolio-optimization topics.

Cloud Solutions, which serves project-based businesses such as IT services, system development, advertising, and consulting, contributes 68% of revenue and 94% of operating profit at segment OPM above 40%. FY2025 segment revenue was 5.6B yen and operating profit 2.5B yen, with 10-year revenue and profit CAGRs of 14.9% and 20.8%. Growth is being driven by new customer additions of 80–90 per year against a base of 1,100 clients, rising licenses per client, NRR of 116%, churn of 0.3%, and the January 2023 shift to SaaS-only contracts, which Jiro expects to support further margin expansion. Management targets 4,000 clients against an estimated 44,000 domestic targets.
Marketing Solutions, concentrated on Nissan and Aeon, generated 2.6B yen of revenue but only 0.1B yen of operating profit in FY2025, with a 10-year profit CAGR of negative 5.6%. Jiro believes a sale for 2–3B yen is plausible, removing a visible drag and allowing the market to reprice the Cloud franchise on its own.

Capital allocation has inflected. Net cash has grown from 1B to 10B yen, or 70% of total assets. Buybacks have stepped up from 500M yen in 2024 to 1B yen in 2025 and another 1B yen announced for 2026, with payout exceeding 40% and a 2.5% dividend yield. Jiro believes Oro should distribute more than 100% of profit going forward given the modest capital needs of the business.

Oro recently traded at 6.7x EV/EBITDA and 15.7x P/E, or roughly 10x ex-cash, a discount to Japanese software peers trading at a median 13.5x EV/EBITDA and 23.4x P/E. VARECS’ three-year base case assumes a 7.6x EV/EBIT multiple on FY2028E EBIT of 4.6B yen and a 10% share-count reduction, yielding ~66% upside from a recent 1,900 yen. A spin-off plus multiple expansion to 10x implies 104% upside; combined with a 25% buyback, upside reaches 145%.

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Asian Investing Summit 2026 was held from April 14-21, 2026. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

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Lycopodium: Mispriced Compounder With Founder Alignment and High ROE

MOI Global Equity Research — Wed, 20 May 2026 20:03:49 GMT

Kimi Venkataraman and Sidd Thomas of India Intrinsic Value Consultants presented their investment thesis on Lycopodium Ltd (Australia: LYL) at Asian Investing Summit 2026.

Thesis summary:

Lycopodium is a Perth-based engineering and project delivery services firm serving the resources sector, founded in 1992 and listed on the ASX in 2004. Sidd and Kimi describe a 30-plus-year-old business that derives roughly 94% of revenue from miners in gold, copper, lithium, rare earths, uranium, titanium and mineral sands, with no equity raises since listing. The three founders — Rodney Leonard, Michael Caratti and CEO Peter De Leo — remain involved and collectively own about 30% of the equity, aligning management with outside shareholders. Market cap recently stood at about A$530 million (about US$365 million) at a share price of A$13.30.

The core of the thesis rests on Lycopodium’s predominantly EPCM (engineering, procurement and construction management) model, which Sidd and Kimi contrast with the lump-sum EPC model that dominates listed peers. In EPCM, the owner bears cost-overrun risk while Lycopodium earns a cost-plus professional services fee, making the business capital-light, free of balance-sheet exposure, and capable of generating 30%-plus ROE (FY25). Today roughly 80%-plus of revenue sits in EPCM, with the EPC-heavier exposure largely ring-fenced via a 40/60 JV with Monadelphous. Kimi emphasizes a “study-to-EPCM flywheel”: the firm runs 40-plus scoping, PFS, FS and DFS studies at any point, and miners who use Lycopodium for feasibility almost always award it the EPCM, which in turn feeds recurring optimization work. Committed contracts stood at A$415 million with a A$1.3 billion opportunity pipeline as of December 2025.

Competitive strengths include on-time, at-budget delivery track record, two-thirds of revenue from repeat clients, a client list that includes Newmont, Rio Tinto and Anglo American Platinum, and 30-plus years of metallurgical and process data that is not replicable by new entrants. About 57% of FY25 revenue came from Africa, an area of relative strength given few established peers. In 2024, Lycopodium entered the Americas through its acquisition of Argentine firm SAXUM, which management estimates expands its TAM by about 40%. Tailwinds include high gold prices (six-plus active gold EPCM projects), a looming copper deficit driven by the energy transition, and battery-mineral demand (lithium, nickel, graphite, rare earths). The principal risk, as highlighted by the 2013-2017 commodity downturn and reinforced by Kimi, is a mining capex cycle that compresses miners’ access to financing, which historically forced Lycopodium to take on EPC risk and produced its only loss year (FY15).

Revenue grew from A$162 million in FY21 to A$340 million in FY25 (about 20% CAGR), while NPAT grew from A$14 million to A$42 million (about 31% CAGR), with net income margins expanding from 8.8% to peaks of 14.5% before softening to 12.4% in FY25. The balance sheet carries A$79 million of net cash and zero debt. The payout ratio averaged in the high 60s until FY25, when management cut payout to 33% to fund SAXUM — an unusual attribute of a business that has compounded earnings while distributing two-thirds of profits. Over the 20 years since listing, revenue compounded at 8.2%, net income at 10.8%, dividends at 11.3%, and total shareholder return (including dividends reinvested) at 14.9% CAGR.

Kimi and Sidd frame valuation by projecting the past 20-year track record forward 20 years. Starting from a current market cap of A$531 million, they estimate cumulative dividends reinvested at 3% of A$1,795 million, terminal NPAT of A$262 million, and apply a deliberately conservative terminal P/E of 7x (compared with a trailing P/E of about 15x today and peer multiples of 17-40x trailing) for a terminal value of A$1,837 million. Total expected value of A$3,632 million implies an expected return of about 10.1% CAGR over two decades. The shares recently traded at a trailing P/E of 15x against a depressed FY25 earnings base; Kimi notes that low near-term earnings — with FY26 expected roughly flat to FY25 — are precisely what create the current opportunity as feasibility projects convert into EPCM delivery and SAXUM contributes to the Americas pipeline.

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Motilal Oswal: From Broker to Wealth and Asset Management Powerhouse

MOI Global Equity Research — Wed, 20 May 2026 20:03:26 GMT

Gokul Raj Ponnuraj of Bavaria Industries Group presented his in-depth investment thesis on Motilal Oswal Financial Services (India: MOTILALOFS) at Asian Investing Summit 2026.

Thesis summary:

Motilal Oswal is an India-based, vertically integrated capital markets firm with a $4.5 billion market cap and franchises across asset management, wealth management, broking, investment banking, alternates, and financial distribution. Gokul Raj presented the company at the Asian Investing Summit 2026 as a way to participate in the financialization of Indian household savings. Insiders own more than 75% of the equity, and the business has compounded book value per share at 21%+ in USD terms (25%+ in INR) over the past decade, with revenues, AUM and profits all up roughly 10x over that period. The model is capital-light: the firm IPOed once, has not raised additional equity, has executed two buybacks, and has generated FCF since inception, which has been recycled into a treasury book that earns a low-20s IRR and provides funding advantages for the operating businesses.

The structural thesis rests on India’s underpenetrated equity culture and a rare cluster of growth drivers: 7%+ GDP growth, demographics, formalization, an under-levered household and corporate balance sheet, and a regulatory regime that has built a fully digital, transparent capital markets infrastructure. Gokul Raj estimates cumulative Indian gross savings of roughly $47 trillion over 15 years, with $3-4 trillion potentially flowing into capital markets at current allocation rates. Domestic investors now own ~85% of the market and SIP flows have been a relentless monthly bid, even as foreign investors have sold roughly $50 billion. Indian equities have underperformed EM by 25%+ over two years, the median stock is down 50% from its highs, and Motilal has corrected with the market – which Gokul Raj views as the entry point.

The mix shift in earnings is at the core of the re-rating case. Asset management has scaled 3x in five years, with mutual fund SIP AUM up ~6x and incremental flow market share of 8-10% versus a 3% stock share. Alternates – PE, real estate and a newly launched private credit fund – has delivered 20%+ IRRs across vintages, allowing each successive fund to be 2-3x the size of the prior one, with ~60% of carry accruing to shareholders given heavy insider ownership of the listed entity. Private wealth, entered in 2016, has grown net revenues and AUM 4-5x in five years, runs at 50%+ margins at scale, and benefits from RMs that are still on average only ~3 years vintage. The legacy broking franchise, now positioned as a full-service wealth distribution channel, has absorbed share losses to discount brokers by consolidating the tail and has built a high-rated lending book (margin trading and LAS) that has delivered near-zero credit costs across cycles.

Quality of earnings has shifted from broking-led to wealth- and asset-management-led, which now contribute over 50% of operating PAT and are tracking toward 70-80% within two to three years. Annual recurring revenue is ~60% of consolidated revenues; firms that have crossed the 65-70% ARR threshold (e.g., 360 ONE) trade at 30-40x PAT. Blended ROE will keep rising as the housing finance unit – the only capital-heavy and historically problematic operation, now cleaned up at <1% GNPA and 12-14% ROE – is monetized via IPO or sale within two to three years. Founders have pledged ~$500 million (10% of holdings) to education-related philanthropy over the next 5-10 years; the resulting promoter dilution would lift the regulatory cap on buybacks and likely accelerate repurchases when shares are cheap. Succession is in place, with both founders’ sons in operating roles and ~$300 million of equity held by non-family insiders.

The shares recently traded at less than 14x trailing operating profit after tax and 3x book value, with the treasury (~20% of firm value, ~70% public equity / 30% alternates) carried at what Gokul Raj considers a conservative 20% holdco discount. Stripping out MTM noise that has cluttered reported P&L over the past six months, Gokul Raj argues the operating business can compound earnings at 15-20% over the next decade, with optionality from margin expansion, ARR mix shift, buybacks, and a multiple re-rating toward the 30-40x PAT range that the market awards to pure wealth and asset management franchises. The downside is largely tied to a prolonged Indian equity drawdown – a scenario in which earnings might be hit by ~10% on a worst-case basis, while the high-beta franchise would offer leverage to any subsequent recovery.

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Twenty-Three Years After Buffett: Hoosik Min on Korea’s Second Act

MOI Global Equity Research — Wed, 20 May 2026 20:02:46 GMT

Hoosik Min of Pine Investment Advisory discussed the value and quality investment opportunity in Korea at Asian Investing Summit 2026. Hoosik also presented four case studies, including Seers Technology (Korea: 458870).

Session summary:

Hoosik Min expects improving ROE across Korean companies as industrial structure and capital-market reforms take hold. The KOSPI rose ~110% from early 2025 to March 2026 (2,400 to 5,052 points). Pine targets businesses with strong cash generation and reinvestment-led growth, run by managements with sound capital allocation, acquired at undervalued or fair prices. Roughly 20-30% of Korean listings recently traded below 1.0x PBR. KOSPI’s ten-year ROE has ranged 6-12%; Hoosik estimates that if ROE reaches 10-15% and OP margin expands to 14-16%, PBR could re-rate from 0.9-1.5x to 1.5-2.5x.

Korea carries real cost-of-equity risks: the North Korean border sits ~50 km from Seoul, chaebol governance opacity in a market just ~2% of global capitalization, and a super-aged demographic with a 0.8 fertility rate. Offsetting factors are accumulating: May 2024 Value-Up guidelines, a July 2025 amendment expanding directors’ duty of loyalty to shareholders, January 2026 treasury-stock disclosure tightening, and pending rules requiring cancellation of treasury stock within one year. Net cash is ~25% of KRX market cap; Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and SK announced Q1 2026 buybacks of KRW 15.7, 13.5, and 5.0 trillion, respectively.

Pharma Research (214450), a medical-devices and cosmetics business, is anchored by the Rejuran brand (PN technology IP) in skin beauty. From 2020 to 2025, sales grew ~36% per year, net profit ~46%, and OP margin ran 30-40%; the stock rose 12x to KRW 403,000 at end-2025. After a recent correction, Hoosik views the shares as priced in a low range versus intrinsic value. Management emphasizes cash profits, has trimmed low-margin channels, and pursued small-scale M&A (Healer, Botox) for diversification. Risks include new entrants, compression of the 40% OP margin, and global-expansion costs.

Samyang Foods (003230), a Korean consumer-goods company, has ridden Buldak Ramen through five years of reinvestment-led growth. From 2021 to 2025, revenues grew ~29% per year, net profit ~42%, and OP margin expanded from 10% to 22%; the stock rose 13x to KRW 1,231,000 at end-2025. Exports moved from 10% of sales in 2015 to 80% in 2025. The Miryang factory (2020-2022) delivered operating leverage; a China facility starts in 2027. Global share is 3-4%. Risks include new competitors, trend durability, and a thin second growth engine.

Leeno Industrials (058470) supplies Pin & Socket components for semiconductor test equipment. Over 2011-2025, sales grew ~13% per year and net profit ~16%; the stock rose 35.8x over 15 years to KRW 60,500 at end-2025. By company estimate, Pin share runs 60-70% globally, with end clients including Apple, Qualcomm, TSMC, and Samsung Electronics. A new factory twice the size of the current one begins operations in 2026, extending capacity from customer-specific R&D to mass production. The principal risk is valuation.

Seers Technology (458870) is Hoosik’s newest case — an early-stage medical-equipment company focused on hospital operational efficiency. Consensus expects sales to grow ~78% per year and net profit ~99% over the next two years, with OP margin near 45% in 2026-2027E. Mobiecare (2020) is an AI arrhythmia diagnostic; ThynC (2024), ~90% of revenue, is a Bluetooth bedside monitoring gateway now expanding into the Middle East. Of Korea’s ~700,000 hospital beds, ~300,000 are addressable; ThynC sits near 10% penetration. Risks include low entry barriers, limited domestic TAM, and overseas software-security validation.

Hoosik frames the thesis as “South Korea Investment Season 2” — Season 1 being Warren Buffett’s 2002-2003 Korean purchases at 3-4x P/E after the IMF bailout. Season 2 centers on creative innovation and differentiated business. Capital-heavy industries are restructuring; shipbuilding, defense, and energy infrastructure have shifted from general-purpose to custom-order output, as HBM and server memory have in semiconductors. Korean brands are converting 20-30 years of cultural accumulation — PSY, BTS, Parasite, Squid Game, Han Kang’s 2024 Nobel — into price premium, with cosmetics exports compounding at a 16% CAGR. Hoosik likens the arc to Japan’s Value-Up program 14 years prior.

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Chagee: "Starbucks of Tea" with Global Ambitions at Single-Digit P/E Ex-Cash

MOI Global Equity Research — Fri, 15 May 2026 15:15:48 GMT

Roshan Padamadan of Luminance Capital presented his investment thesis on Chagee (Nasdaq: CHA) at Asian Investing Summit 2026.

Thesis summary:

Chagee is a premium fresh-leaf tea platform based in China aiming to become the “Starbucks of tea” through global expansion. Founded in 2017 in Yunnan by Zhang Junjie — now China’s youngest billionaire, retaining ~35% ownership — Chagee operates 7,453 stores globally, with ~6,700 in Greater China, and brews via a proprietary “tea espresso” machine delivering ±2% consistency across geographies versus an estimated ±10% for barista-made products. Priced around 20 yuan (~$4-5) per drink, it targets the upwardly-mobile Chinese consumer and an under-branded global tea category with no dominant premium player.

The model is 82% franchised, with Chagee collecting royalties and supplying tea and ingredients at high margins, while its app (~177M registered users, ~45M active) drives ~90% of footfall. Store closure rates run at ~2%, well below the industry median, and franchise unit economics hold up even after monthly per-store revenues normalized from over RMB 500K to the RMB 350-400K range. Company-owned stores — 18% of revenue but +126% YoY in Q4 2025 — handle brand control in Singapore (~20 stores), the US (seven in LA), and Korea (new launch).

China is shifting from growth to cash generation, while international rollout — Korea, Malaysia (300-store franchise plan), Thailand JV, US, Middle East, and Europe — carries the valuation narrative. Same-store sales in China fell 20-24% in 2025 as Alibaba- and Meituan-led discount wars pulled coupon-seeking consumers toward mass-market peers HEYTEA and Mixue, but Chagee declined to participate, protecting brand equity. Chinese regulators have since pressured such discounting, which Roshan expects to improve sentiment during 2026.

FY2025 revenue was RMB 12.91B (~$1.85B), net income RMB 1.19B (~$170M), and non-GAAP net income RMB 1.91B (~$273M). The shares recently traded at ~$10 versus the April 2025 IPO at $28, implying a market cap of ~$1.7B, offset by a cash balance comprising a large share of that market cap, no debt, and ~$400M of annual FCF distributed as a dividend last December (~8-9% yield). Multiples are ~0.92x EV/Revenue, ~5.5x EV/EBITDA, and a single-digit P/E ex-cash. JPMorgan recently set a $16 target on stabilizing same-store sales in 2026, implying ~60% upside. Roshan views Chagee as a combination of value and growth with multi-bagger potential over 5-10 years, cushioned by cash and dividend yield.

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Sasken: From Project-Based Services to a Silicon Royalty Flywheel

MOI Global Equity Research — Fri, 08 May 2026 15:16:04 GMT

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Hitesh Kumar of Kosha Capital Advisors presented his investment thesis on Sasken Technologies (India: SASKEN) at Asian Investing Summit 2026.

Note by John: “This is an exceptionally well-articulated investment thesis by a highly knowledgable former employee of the subject company (Sasken). Even if you do not have access to the Indian equity markets, you may like to watch this presentation. It touches substantively on several US-listed companies, including Infosys and Qualcomm.”

Thesis summary:

Sasken is a ~$200 million market cap Indian embedded engineering firm with a 30-year heritage turning silicon into intelligent devices. Hitesh frames it as a company building a differentiated “Chip-to-Device” platform, spanning silicon design, embedded software, OS/platform, and device ODM, a combination no Indian ER&D peer matches. The business has absorbed multiple platform cycles (TI OMAP, Symbian, semiconductor consolidation) by investing in R&D and won a Rs 2.76 Bn IP arbitration in FY16. FY26E revenue of Rs 6,980 Mn (+27% YoY) brings organic scale back to the FY09 peak, now on a more diversified book.

The 60x4x3 strategy (grow 60 marquee accounts to $4M+ revenue each within three years) is reshaping the mix. Top 2 customer concentration has fallen from 50% in FY09 to 17% in FY25, while $4M+ accounts rose from 1 to 5. Headcount grew 54% between Q2 FY24 and Q3 FY26, temporarily compressing EBITDA margins from 27% to sub-5%; the latest quarters show recovery to 12–17% as utilization normalizes toward 80%.

Two acquisitions totaling ~Rs 400 Cr over 18 months completed the stack. Sasken Silicon (60% for Rs 33 Cr in FY24, led by ex-Qualcomm engineer Dr. Anup Savla) adds custom ASIC, RF/mmWave, and power-management IC capabilities with TSMC/GlobalFoundries/UMC foundry ties. BORQS Technologies ($40M, FY25) contributes end-to-end Android ODM, 130+ patents, and a 200+ member Qualcomm ODC. Combined with Sasken’s existing 100+ member Qualcomm ODC, the merged team engineers >85% of Qualcomm’s chipsets, positioning Sasken to ride Qualcomm’s $45 Bn SDV design-win pipeline, NTN satellite, IoT, and XR.

Corporate governance reads like a large-cap: 75% independent board, fully independent audit committee, zero audit qualifications across FY03–FY25, and a 20-year uninterrupted dividend with ~80% of the FY16 IP windfall returned to owners. Rs 300+ Cr of cash (~15% of market cap) provides downside protection.

The shares recently traded at ~30x FY26E P/E, a depressed-earnings year. On conservative FY28E assumptions ($150M revenue (only 11% CAGR versus recent 30–35% organic growth), services EBITDA at the low end of 14–17% management guidance, and no new ODM wins) EBIT could re-rate 3–4x and ROE (ex-cash) from 3% to ~24%. That implies ~12x FY28E P/E, ~7x EV/EBITDA, and 2.0x P/B versus peer medians of ~20x, ~13x, and 5.8x, a 40–65% discount for a business with visible order-book conversion, Qualcomm entrenchment, and tier-1 governance.

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Hikari Tsushin: Japanese Outlier With Two Decades of Strong Compounding

MOI Global Equity Research — Fri, 01 May 2026 20:01:24 GMT

Omar Malik of Hosking Partners presented his in-depth investment thesis on Hikari Tsushin (Japan: 9435) at Asian Investing Summit 2026.

Thesis summary:

Hikari Tsushin is a Japanese holding company comprising three arms (a core distribution business, a listed equity portfolio, and opportunistic M&A), an outlier within corporate Japan. Founded by Yasumitsu Shigeta, who rebuilt the firm after a 99% drawdown in 2000, the group pivoted in 2010 toward in-house recurring-revenue products and a Berkshire-inspired capital-allocation framework. Over 15 years, Hikari has compounded operating profit above 20%, book value and dividends at 17% each, maintained ROE above 16%, and reduced share count by 18%.

The core business distributes essential services (electricity and gas, telecom lines, office water, and smartphone and home-appliance insurance) through roughly 1,000 agency partners housing 20,000 salespeople who sit on agency P&Ls rather than Hikari’s. Reach extends to 1.3 million corporate customers, or 20-30% of all Japanese corporates, and 4 million individuals; group churn runs under 2%. A low fixed-cost base allows Hikari to undercut incumbents and consolidate distressed peers, while a 200% five-year return hurdle on recurring revenue divided by CAC imposes discipline across channels. Outcomes include 30% share in office water, 80% in mobile device insurance, and the #2 position in independent electricity.

A culture of frugality, meritocracy, decentralized capital allocation, and mandatory after-tax share ownership underpins these advantages. President Wada, who joined out of university, has purchased roughly $100 million of stock personally. Between 2017 and recent years, management borrowed about $6 billion of long-dated Japanese debt near zero rates and deployed it into 500-600 undervalued Japanese equities plus an $800 million Berkshire Class A position (Hikari is the 10th-largest Class A holder). Portfolio cost of ~830 billion yen sits on a $4 billion gain, with an eight-year IRR of 18% versus 11% for TOPIX.

The shares recently traded at roughly 1.5x book, the low end of the range since 2022 despite 17% book CAGR, implying a core EV near 900 billion yen, or 8x reported operating profit and 5x on owner earnings. Management guides to 10% recurring operating-profit CAGR plus another 5% from M&A. On conservative assumptions of 10% core growth, a steady-state 10x terminal multiple, and a 50% portfolio uplift over five years, Omar estimates roughly 100,000 yen per share, implying 150% upside or a ~20% CAGR.

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Barratt Redrow: A “Stupidly Cheap” Stock Just Got 40% Cheaper

John Mihaljevic — Thu, 30 Apr 2026 18:29:45 GMT

One of my favorite sessions at European Investing Summit 2025 was Simon Caufield’s presentation on Barratt Redrow (UK: BTRW) on October 28. Simon argued that the UK’s largest homebuilder was “crazily undervalued,” trading at roughly 47% of his estimate of “liquidation value.” He titled the talk after Mark Twain’s line about the trouble being “what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” According to Simon, the misperception was not in the affordability statistics or the volume data the market was watching. It was in failing to understand how UK homebuilders behave during a downturn.

I left that session impressed and did not anticipate what would come next. In the six months since, Barratt Redrow shares have fallen close to another 40%, from roughly 400p at the time of Simon’s session to about 250p today. The market cap has compressed from £5.7 billion to about £3.6 billion. The shares are now trading at a 13-year low, and over the past three months Barratt Redrow has been the single worst performer on the entire FTSE 100.

An impression from one of the early Latticework summits

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When a stock that was already “stupidly cheap” gets cheaper by another ~40%, on a thesis that has, if anything, been confirmed by recent operating results, I find it worth revisiting. What follows is a refresher of Simon’s thesis for readers who did not see the original presentation, an update incorporating the financial results reported between late October 2025 and today, and an updated valuation exercise using his framework.

The Agentic Stub: Why Sabre Is One of the Most Asymmetric AI Setups

John Mihaljevic — Wed, 29 Apr 2026 18:28:24 GMT

This piece follows my recent article, “Who Gets Paid When AI Agents Subscribe to Data?”, in which I argued companies whose data is sensor-produced, regulator-cited, or embedded in a two-sided network stand to benefit from the growing adoption of agentic AI. I called out Amadeus (Spain: AMS) as “perhaps the best risk/reward large-cap on the list.”

Today I discuss Amadeus’s smaller and, in my view, more interesting comparable: Sabre Corporation (US: SABR). An important caveat up front: Sabre is highly leveraged relative to its equity cap, so if your investment process eschews debt-laden companies, this article will not appeal to you.

An impression from one of the early Latticework summits

Sabre is the world’s #2 global distribution system (GDS), a centralized network that facilitates automated, real-time transactions between travel service providers (airlines, hotels, car rental companies) and travel agencies. It sits on top of the same agentic data flywheel as Amadeus and, in several places, is further along on agentic infrastructure. The enterprise, however, trades at a fraction of Amadeus’s valuation, as Sabre carries roughly $4.2 billion of debt against a market cap under $750 million. This is a genuine equity stub, as defined in Chapter 10 of my book, The Manual of Ideas.

Equity stubs are uncomfortable, and the bear case for Sabre is zero. However, a combination of strong cash generation, deep proprietary data, aggressive deleveraging, and active engagement by 10+% shareholder Constellation Software (Canada: CSU) tilts the risk-reward in a way I find difficult to ignore. Buffett follower Discerene Capital, with close to 10% ownership, appears to hold a similar view.

Let’s understand why the uncomfortable optics of Sabre equity may be deceiving, and why investors may capture 3-7x upside as the company executes its agentic AI strategy and delevers.

Kitazato Corporation: Structural IVF Growth at Discount To Global Peers

MOI Global Equity Research — Mon, 27 Apr 2026 21:18:01 GMT

Patrick Rial of TriVista Capital presented his in-depth investment thesis on Kitazato Corporation (Japan: 368A) at Asian Investing Summit 2026.

Thesis summary:

Kitazato is Japan’s leading provider of consumables for in vitro fertilization (IVF), generating over 60% of sales internationally and posting a 56% operating margin — the sixth-highest among non-financial Japanese listings. Patrick estimates the global fertility treatment market at roughly $49 billion, with 5-8% expected growth driven by later marriage, declining male sperm counts, rising egg-freezing adoption, expanding insurance coverage, and ongoing technological improvement. Kitazato’s sales have compounded at an 8.9% CAGR over the last decade.

The company’s moat stems from the vitrification revolution it pioneered with Japan’s Kato Ladies Clinic around 2000. Vitrification flash-freezes eggs in a glass-like state using liquid nitrogen, eliminating the ice-crystal damage of slow freezing and enabling near-100% thaw survival. Industry adoption from 2005 made it the global standard of care. Roughly 65% of Kitazato’s sales tie to vitrification, where it holds 60% share in Japan, 70% in Europe, 80% in China, and 85% in India. Across Japanese product categories, share ranges from 50% to 96%, including a near-monopoly in Cryotop storage devices.

Patrick views founder Futoshi Inoue, 55, as an exceptional operator aligned with shareholders. Inoue owns 58.9% of the company, describes shareholders as co-managers, and is unhappy with post-IPO share performance. FY results due in May should beat a -7.1% operating profit guide (Patrick models +4.5%); a dividend payout lift from the current 40% toward 50-70% is plausible given ¥12 billion of net cash and minimal capex; a potential cryobank business could open a new profit pool; and US growth should accelerate under new distribution partner DeviMed. Principal risks include competition, technological disruption, margin compression, and a possible further stake sale by Inoue.

The shares recently traded at 6.9x EV/EBIT, 13.3x P/E, 2.77x P/B, and a 3.0% dividend yield, with a ¥53 billion market cap. Public peers Cooper Companies and Vitrolife trade at 17.7-23.5x EV/EBIT and 24-38x P/E despite lower margins, while recent industry M&A has taken place at 5x+ sales, implying 18x+ EBITDA. Patrick’s DCF, assuming 4-8% sales growth and 57-59% operating margins, yields a ¥1,387-¥2,238 fair value range.

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Freee: Founder-Led Disruptor of Japan’s Accounting Incumbents

MOI Global Equity Research — Fri, 17 Apr 2026 20:01:17 GMT

Michael Fritzell of Asian Century Stocks presented his in-depth investment thesis on Freee (Japan: 4478) at Asian Investing Summit 2026.

Thesis summary:

Freee is a Japanese cloud-native software platform that functions as a back-office operating system for small and medium-sized enterprises, founded in 2013 by ex-Google executive Daisuke Sasaki and CTO Ryu Yokoji. Often described as the Japanese analogue of Australia’s Xero, Freee began as an accounting tool and has expanded into HR, payroll, tax filing, expense reimbursement, electronic signatures, invoicing, sales management, and a third-party app store with integrations including Rakuten, Amazon, and Line. The platform serves roughly 500,000 businesses and, together with Money Forward, holds about 15% of the Japanese accounting software market, with legacy desktop incumbents such as Yayoi lagging behind. Michael views Freee as the true disruptor because its automated bank and credit card linkages generate entries with minimal manual input, positioning it to take share as Japanese SMEs digitalize from a base of Excel and paper.

The core of Michael’s thesis is that the market has wrongly extrapolated generative-AI commoditization risk onto enterprise SaaS. Japanese software stocks are down sharply, and Freee itself has fallen roughly 30% YTD and about 50% from its 2025 peak, with some Japanese portfolio managers reportedly barred from touching the sector. Michael argues that enterprise systems of record are structurally different from point solutions: AI remains probabilistic and unsuitable for mission-critical accounting work, distribution and trust matter more than raw code, and Freee sits on proprietary transactional data from its half-million customers with more than 1,000 banking and financial integrations that are not replicable by vibe-coded alternatives. Monthly overall churn has declined to 1.1% in 2025 (corporate churn 0.5%, lower than Money Forward’s), and learning costs, limited data migration, and a growing app store bolster the moat.

The growth algorithm has compounded revenues at a 39% CAGR since 2019, driven by a 25% CAGR in paying customers (from 160,000 to about 607,000) and a 9% CAGR in ARPU (to roughly JPY 56,700). With Japanese cloud accounting penetration at only ~25-30%, Michael sees room for penetration to triple toward Australian and US levels, supporting sustained 30% top-line growth. Management has guided to 26% revenue growth in the current fiscal year and has historically beaten its targets, recently posting close to 30%. Share-count dilution is near zero, unlike typical US SaaS peers, so organic growth accrues cleanly to minorities.

Michael believes long-term operating margins can exceed 30% and potentially reach 40%, consistent with Xero at ~55% EBITDA margins in Australia/New Zealand, Fortnox at ~50% EBIT margins in Sweden, and Intuit’s SME segment at ~50%. ARPU of roughly $30-40 per month is low for the value delivered, and modest pricing uplift would convert the existing cost base into substantial leverage, analogous to Netflix’s pricing journey a decade ago. Catalysts include Money Forward’s September 2025 price hike (driving prospects to Freee), Freee’s December 2025 launch of consolidation accounting and manual double-entry bookkeeping (closing the feature gap), and accelerated AI product rollouts led by newly appointed Chief AI Officer Ryu Yokoji, including automated receipt capture, a ChatGPT tax guidance mini-app, an AI website builder, and a business-succession matching tool. Daisuke Sasaki, founder-CEO, is described as serious, non-promotional, and fully focused on building the business.

The shares recently traded at 2.3x EV/Sales, roughly half the multiple of industry peers and meaningfully below Money Forward. Freee is around GAAP breakeven with capitalized software costs, and Japanese retail investors appear to discount the delayed profitability inherent in the SaaS model. On Michael’s numbers, EV/Sales compresses to 2.0x in FY2027, then 1.7x, 1.4x, and 1.2x, with P/E falling below 10x by 2030 as margins scale into management’s long-term 30% operating margin guidance. Using conservative margin and exit-multiple assumptions, Michael arrives at an IRR of about 25%, with no dividend — the return is entirely a function of growth continuing from the guided 26% toward the high teens over several years. Some sell-side targets (Macquarie among them) sit at roughly double the recent share price, consistent with Michael’s view that the current multiple reflects near-term AI disruption fears rather than the underlying economics of a dominant, compounding Japanese SME platform.

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Asian Investing Summit 2026 was held from April 14-17, 2026. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

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TBC Bank: A Mispriced Digital Growth Story in Central Asia

MOI Global Equity Research — Wed, 25 Mar 2026 20:33:39 GMT

Jean Pierre Verster of Protea Capital Management presented his investment thesis on TBC Bank Group (UK: TBCG) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

TBC Bank Group is a holding company operating two distinct banking entities in the Caucasus and Central Asia. TBC Bank Georgia, a universal bank, generates approximately 90% of group profits and holds a 40% market share in a stable duopolistic market. The remaining 10% of profits stem from TBC Uzbekistan, a high-growth digital venture mirroring the “super-app” strategy of fintech players like Kaspi. While the Georgian operation provides a foundation of stability, the expansion into Uzbekistan offers exposure to a market with ten times the population of Georgia and low banking penetration.

The Georgian operation anchors the thesis with consistent returns, having compounded earnings while maintaining long-term ROEs above 20%. Established in 1992, the bank has transitioned from a traditional physical network to a strong digital offering. Despite being situated in a region with perceived geopolitical friction—bordering Russia and occupied territories—the currency has remained relatively flat against the British Pound over the last decade, and the economy has benefited from recent migration inflows. The high level of dollarization in the Georgian economy is being actively managed through central bank “larization” initiatives to decrease foreign exchange risk.

Jean Pierre highlights Uzbekistan as the primary growth engine, leveraging a population of nearly 40 million to deploy a fintech-enabled strategy. Through acquisitions of payment provider Payme and e-classifieds platform OLX, TBC is building an ecosystem to capture a young, digitally savvy demographic. While this segment has delivered rapid loan growth, recent regulatory interventions aimed at curbing unsecured lending and a tick-up in NPLs suggest a near-term moderation in expansion rates. Consequently, the bank is pivoting toward secured and SME lending to de-risk the Uzbek book over the coming years.

Governance and capital allocation are anchored by a management team led by a CEO who has served since 1995. The group maintains a dividend payout ratio between 35% and 40%, supplementing shareholder returns with share buybacks when excess capital is available. Although the founder’s recent legal issues and subsequent pardon present a headline risk, the operational leadership has continued to deliver efficiency improvements, driving the cost-to-income ratio down to approximately 38%.

Regarding valuation, Jean Pierre argues the market misprices the gap between the company’s fundamental performance and its share price. The stock recently traded at a P/E of roughly 6x and a trailing tangible P/B of 1.3x, despite consistent ROEs exceeding 20% and healthy capital adequacy. Jean Pierre suggests a fair multiple would be closer to 2x tangible book value. A narrowing of this valuation gap, combined with earnings growth and a ~6% dividend yield, could support a 25% CAGR, potentially doubling the share price to around £80 by 2029.

Disclaimer

Best Ideas 2026 was held from January 6-23, 2026. The content of this website is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this website. BeyondProxy’s officers, directors, employees, and/or contributing authors may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated herein.

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Jean Pierre Verster on TBC Bank

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Gimat: The Turkish “Costco” With a Decades-Long Growth Runway

MOI Global Equity Research — Fri, 20 Mar 2026 21:00:24 GMT

Monsoon Pabrai of Drew Investments presented her in-depth investment thesis on Gimat (Turkey: GMTAS) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

Gimat is an Ankara-based wholesaler-retailer operating a hybrid business model that combines a wholesale market, a modern consumer hypermarket, and a real estate-anchored ecosystem. Born from a cooperative of over 1,000 wholesalers in the early 1990s, Gimat functions similarly to a “Turkish Costco,” selling in bulk with low margins while owning its real estate assets. This structure provides a natural hedge against Turkey’s high inflation environment, protecting the company from rent escalation and supply chain disruptions. The company currently operates two locations, with the flagship store generating ~$1,200 in sales per square foot and gross margins exceeding 20%. The shareholder base remains unique, with 99% free float and thousands of small holders, largely descendants of the original cooperative members, ensuring a culture focused on continuity and working capital efficiency rather than aggressive corporate expansion.

The company’s expansion strategy is conservative and disciplined, aiming to open one new store roughly every two years. Each unit requires approximately 1 billion lira to build and reaches maturity within 18 to 24 months. The second location, opened recently, reached profitability faster than anticipated. Long-term goals include consolidating presence in Ankara before expanding to other major Turkish provinces and potentially Germany, leveraging the large Turkish diaspora. While the company does not currently charge a membership fee—a key differentiator from the Costco model—management is exploring options such as paid parking passes to introduce a membership-like revenue stream. The focus remains on sustainable growth that does not compromise their thin net margins, which historically sit near 1-2% but are bolstered by asset appreciation and high inventory turnover.

Management is led by General Manager Recai Kesimal, who holds proxies for over 25% of the wholesaler base. Kesimal’s approach is characterized by a “service” mindset, prioritizing the stability and longevity of the enterprise over short-term shareholder value creation. This alignment ensures operational discipline and aversion to excessive leverage or risky scaling. While the lack of large institutional investors and the fragmented ownership structure might typically raise governance concerns, the deep communal ties and the management’s track record of capital preservation mitigate these risks. The leadership is actively studying Costco’s operational and cultural efficiencies to further optimize their low-cost model.

Gimat recently traded at a market capitalization of approximately $156 million, which Monsoon argues is slightly below its estimated intrinsic value of $175 million. This intrinsic value calculation aggregates the earnings power of the two existing stores—generating roughly $11 million in PAT, valued at a conservative 10x multiple—and the real estate value of the “Gimat Arena” development. The latter includes projected office sales of $50 million and retained commercial property yielding $1 million in annual rent, capitalized at 6.5%. Despite trailing P/E ratios appearing inflated due to Turkish inflation accounting, the underlying asset base and cash flow generation present a “heads I win, tails I don’t lose too much” scenario, offering a free option on future growth for patient capital.

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Monsoon Pabrai on Gimat

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Akamai: Underappreciated Shift to Security and Compute Drives Value

MOI Global Equity Research — Wed, 18 Mar 2026 20:32:39 GMT

Steve Gorelik of Firebird Management presented his in-depth investment thesis on Akamai Technologies (US: AKAM) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

Akamai is a “growth at a reasonable price” opportunity navigating a pivotal business transformation. The core thesis rests on the company’s evolution from a legacy Content Delivery Network (CDN) provider into a diversified enterprise security and cloud compute platform. While the traditional delivery business—which historically dominated revenues—has faced secular headwinds from customer DIY efforts and competition, Akamai has successfully reinvested cash flows into higher-growth segments. The Security and Compute divisions now generate approximately two-thirds of total revenue and are growing at double-digit rates, effectively offsetting the decline in the legacy delivery segment. This shift marks a critical inflection point where overall revenue growth is expected to re-accelerate from mid-single digits to high single or double digits.

Akamai’s competitive advantage leverages its massive distributed edge network, comprising over 4,000 locations and relationships with 1,000+ ISPs globally. This infrastructure provides a unique moat for its Security business, which has grown to over $2 billion in revenue through acquisitions and cross-selling to an existing base of large enterprise clients. Furthermore, the company’s entry into the Compute market, catalyzed by the acquisition of Linode, capitalizes on the need for distributed, low-latency processing. This is particularly relevant for emerging workloads such as AI inference, where Akamai’s edge capabilities offer distinct performance and cost benefits compared to centralized hyperscalers. The company’s deep relationships with CTOs and CIOs facilitate the cross-selling of these new services to a sticky enterprise customer base.

From a capital allocation perspective, management has demonstrated discipline by balancing M&A with shareholder returns. Since 2014, Akamai has generated $6.6 billion in FCF, deploying $3.5 billion toward strategic acquisitions to build out its security and compute capabilities, while returning $5 billion to shareholders via buybacks. This has reduced the share count by 16% over the last decade, despite regular equity-based compensation. Consequently, FCF per share has compounded at 9% annually. The transition to higher-margin Security and Compute segments is expected to further support profitability, with these divisions boasting EBITDA margins comparable to or higher than the legacy business.

Valuation remains compelling relative to peers and historical averages. The shares recently traded at a free cash flow yield of approximately 5.2%, representing a discount to the company’s historical trading range. Steve noted that pure-play competitors in the security and edge compute spaces typically command significantly higher multiples. As the revenue mix continues to shift toward these faster-growing segments, Akamai is positioned for potential multiple expansion. With FCF expected to grow by 25% over the next three years—and potentially faster on a per-share basis due to buybacks—the current valuation offers an attractive entry point for a business with accelerating fundamentals.

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Greggs: Capital Cycle Inflection and the Path to Margin Recovery

MOI Global Equity Research — Fri, 13 Mar 2026 21:01:13 GMT

Ben Beneche of Tourbillon Partners presented his in-depth investment thesis on Greggs plc (UK: GRG) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

Ben outlines the thesis for Greggs, a UK-based food-to-go retailer with a vertically integrated business model comprising manufacturing, logistics, and a network of over 2,650 stores. Unlike peers, Greggs owns its supply chain and manages approximately 78% of its outlets directly, a structure that drives a distinct margin profile and a lower cost-to-serve. This vertical integration underpins a symbiotic loop where scale efficiencies allow for lower prices, reinforcing its position as the UK’s leading brand for value. Ben notes that despite a fragmented market growing largely in line with GDP, Greggs has consistently gained share from pubs and service-led restaurants through store expansion and a superior value proposition.

The company recently faced a convergence of headwinds, including UK stagflation, cost inflation in food and wages, and a period of elevated capex focused on supply chain capacity. EBIT margins compressed from a peak of over 12% in 2021 to consensus estimates of 8.7% for FY25. However, Ben argues the business is approaching an inflection point as the heavy investment phase in logistics and manufacturing concludes. With input costs such as pork and energy moderating, and the supply chain investments laying the foundation for future capacity without proportional cost increases, margins are poised to revert toward historical levels.

Growth optionality remains robust through multiple channels. Management targets an expansion to 3,500 stores, a goal Ben supports via regional density analysis and strong underlying ROIC, which remains ~25% for new cohorts. Beyond physical footprint expansion, the B2B segment (comprising franchise fees and wholesale partnerships with retailers like Tesco) offers a high-margin growth avenue, generating mid-20s EBIT margins. Additionally, the evening trade, representing just over 9% of company-managed sales, provides high contribution margin optionality as the company leverages existing fixed costs to capture incremental volume after 4 PM.

As the capital intensity of the supply chain buildout subsides, FCF generation is expected to accelerate, potentially reaching £200 million by FY27. This shift from cash consumption to generation should allow the conservatively financed company—which holds minimal term debt—to enhance shareholder returns. While Greggs has historically prioritized dividends and employee profit sharing, Ben suggests the improving FCF profile creates capacity for share buybacks, particularly given the disconnect between the company’s intrinsic value and its current market price.

The shares recently traded at approximately 11-12x trailing earnings with a dividend yield approaching 5%, marking the lowest valuation multiple seen since 2014. Ben calculates an owner earnings yield of 8.5% for FY26, suggesting a mid-teens IRR is achievable through earnings growth and dividends alone, without relying on a rerating. With the stock down roughly 50% from its 2022 highs due to temporary macro and investment cycle pressures, the current price offers a compelling entry point for a durable franchise with pricing power and a clear path to margin recovery.

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Ben Beneche on Greggs

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Metro Bank: Strong Deposit Franchise, Underappreciated MREL Unlock

MOI Global Equity Research — Wed, 11 Mar 2026 20:40:35 GMT

Patrick Brennan of Brennan Asset Management presented his investment thesis on Metro Bank (UK: MTRO) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

Metro Bank is a UK-based challenger bank that has transitioned from a high-growth model to a distressed turnaround situation following a 2019 capital crisis and a subsequent recapitalization in late 2023 led by Spaldy Investments. Patrick argues that the bank possesses a durable “moat” in its deposit franchise, which features a cost of deposits significantly lower than peers at roughly 95 basis points and a high proportion of non-interest-bearing accounts. Following a 40% headcount reduction and aggressive cost-cutting measures implemented by CEO Dan Frumkin, the bank is pivoting its asset strategy to leverage this funding advantage. The turnaround is anchored by a majority shareholder with a track record in distressed financial investments and a management team heavily incentivized by a compensation plan that targets a share price roughly 3.5x higher than recent levels.

The investment thesis rests on three primary earnings drivers: asset rotation, treasury repricing, and regulatory capital relief. Patrick highlights the bank’s shift from low-yield residential mortgages to higher-margin commercial loans and specialist mortgages, targeting origination spreads of 350 basis points over base rates. Early results from H1 2025 indicate strong momentum with doubled corporate lending volumes. Simultaneously, the bank’s legacy portfolio of low-yielding treasury securities is maturing; rolling these assets into current market rates is projected to provide a cumulative 600 basis point uplift to ROE. This mechanical repricing alone is expected to drive returns on tangible equity from mid-single digits to low teens over the medium term.

A critical, hard catalyst for the thesis is Metro Bank’s exit from the MREL (Minimum Requirement for Own Funds and Eligible Liabilities) regime, effective January 1, 2026. This regulatory shift, resulting from an increase in the asset threshold for compliance, allows the bank to redeem £525 million of expensive debt carrying a 12% coupon. Patrick estimates this redemption will eliminate roughly £60 million in annual interest expense, contributing approximately 4% to the ROE uplift without requiring any new equity issuance. The market has largely ignored this event due to sparse sell-side coverage and broader negative sentiment toward UK financials.

While acknowledging macro risks related to the UK economy’s stagnation and potential housing market softness, Patrick suggests the valuation offers a substantial margin of safety. The bank’s “muddle along” scenario, which does not rely on aggressive economic recovery, still supports a path to a mid-to-high teen ROE. Furthermore, the strategic value of the deposit franchise makes Metro a logical acquisition target, providing downside protection. The alignment with Spaldy Investments, which owns over 50% of the bank, suggests a focus on eventual monetization or a sale, potentially to a private equity firm or a fintech looking to acquire a banking license and deposit base.

Metro Bank shares recently traded at approximately £1.25, representing roughly 0.6x to 0.75x tangible book value (TBV). Patrick believes this valuation is disconnected from the bank’s earnings power, projecting that the combination of treasury repricing, asset rotation, and the MREL cost savings could drive EPS to £0.40 by 2028. At a conservative multiple or through share buybacks executed at these depressed levels, the stock has the potential to triple. The disconnect between the current distressed multiple and the credible path to a 20% ROE presents a unique asymmetric opportunity in a market where the hard catalysts are already confirmed but not yet priced in.

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Patrick Brennan on Metro Bank

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PBAM: Well-Run SoCal Bank With Top-Decile ROA, Uplisting Potential

MOI Global Equity Research — Fri, 06 Mar 2026 21:00:42 GMT

Javier López Bernardo of BrightGate Capital presented his investment thesis on Private Bancorp of America (US: PBAM) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

PBAM is the holding company for CalPrivate Bank, a La Jolla-based institution focused on serving high-net-worth individuals, professionals, and closely held businesses in coastal Southern California. Javier outlines a thesis predicated on the structural advantages of well-run Californian banks, which benefit from the region’s massive economy and a vibrant ecosystem of small and medium-sized enterprises often underserved by larger competitors. With approximately $2.6bn in assets and $2.3bn in deposits across just seven branches, PBAM exhibits exceptional branch productivity. Deposits per office recently stood at $366m, substantially higher than the national average of $221m, providing a dense revenue base relative to fixed costs.

Since Rick Sowers joined the leadership team in 2018—later becoming CEO in 2020—the bank has demonstrated robust operational leverage and disciplined credit underwriting. The efficiency ratio improved from 74% in 2018 to below 50% recently, driven by deposit growth and cost control. Simultaneously, the loan portfolio has maintained strong credit metrics; approximately 80% of loans are secured by real estate with a conservative weighted average loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 53%. Net charge-offs have been negligible in recent years, reinforcing the stability of the asset base. These factors have driven top-decile profitability, with recent ROA and ROE figures reaching approximately 1.8% and 18%, respectively, outperforming the long-term industry average ROA of 1.2%.

Javier characterizes PBAM as a GARP opportunity with distinct short-to-medium-term catalysts. The stock currently trades over the counter (OTC) with limited liquidity and virtually no sell-side coverage. Management has indicated an interest in uplisting to a major exchange like the Nasdaq, potentially in the 2026-2027 timeframe. Moving up the “Value-Add Bank Lifecycle Ladder” through uplisting would likely enhance liquidity, trigger index inclusion (such as the Russell 2000), and expand the multiple. Even barring an immediate uplisting, the bank possesses an ample runway for organic growth, with internal targets to double the asset base over the next three to five years without diluting shareholders.

In terms of valuation, shares recently traded at approximately 1.3x P/BV. Javier posits this valuation is disconnected from the bank’s fundamental quality, specifically its ability to sustain ROAs of 1.5% and ROEs of 15% on 10x leverage. Employing a residual income framework with a 50% reinvestment rate—implying a sustainable growth rate of 7%—the current entry price supports prospective IRRs in the mid-teens (12-14%). The investment offers an asymmetric risk profile where downside is protected by tangible book value and conservative lending, while upside is driven by continued compounding and potential valuation rerating upon uplisting.

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Javier Lopez Bernardo on PBAM

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Pluxee: Spinoff Dynamics, With Strong Management and FCF

MOI Global Equity Research — Wed, 04 Mar 2026 20:40:21 GMT

Jeffrey Stacey of Stacey Muirhead Capital Management presented his investment thesis on Pluxee (France: PLX) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

Pluxee is a leader in employee benefits and engagement, currently holding the number-two market share position worldwide. Spun off from Sodexo in early 2024, the company operates across 28 countries with a 45-year history. Jeff highlights a business model driven by three revenue streams: merchant fees, client fees, and float revenue generated from interest income on funds held in trust. The company facilitates over 4.8 million daily transactions for 500,000 client companies and 37 million employees, supported by a vast network of 1.7 million merchants. Jeff views the increasing corporate focus on employee retention and the “war for talent” as a structural tailwind for Pluxee’s engagement and benefit programs.

The business exhibits outstanding economics characterized by high ROE of 47.8% and consistent profitability. Jeff notes that the customer base is loyal and sticky, maintaining retention rates at or above 100% when accounting for organic growth within existing programs. While the company faces regulatory challenges, specifically regarding the Workers’ Food Program (PAT) in Brazil which has impacted merchant fees and float timelines, Jeff contends that Pluxee’s broad geographic diversity mitigates this exposure. The company remains asset-light and technology-driven, with all transactions occurring digitally via mobile devices or wearable technology, ensuring scalability as it expands its platform.

Management alignment is a core component of the thesis, as the Bellon family maintains a 46.2% ownership stake and has committed to retaining these shares post-spinoff. Jeff emphasizes this “skin in the game” as a primary driver for disciplined capital allocation. Under the leadership of CEO Aurélien, who has been in the role since 2017, Pluxee has demonstrated a balanced approach to capital deployment through tuck-in acquisitions, such as Cobee in Spain and Skipper in Belgium. Furthermore, management recently announced a $100 million share buyback program and a 9% YOY dividend increase, signaling a commitment to returning capital when the market price deviates from intrinsic value.

Regarding valuation, the shares recently traded at €13.41, representing a market capitalization of approximately €1.95 billion. Pluxee maintains a strong financial position with €1.2 billion in net cash, or €7.96 per share. When adjusting for this cash, the enterprise is valued at €5.44 per share. Based on fiscal 2025 EPS of €1.35, the stock recently traded at an ex-cash P/E of 4.0x. Additionally, Pluxee generated €1.79 per share in FCF, resulting in a 32.9% FCF yield at the adjusted price. Jeff suggests that these multiples provide a wide margin of safety and reflect an attractive entry point despite prevailing regulatory concerns.

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Jeffrey Stacey on Pluxee

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GCI Liberty: Cash Cow Asset With Tax Shields and M&A Optionality

MOI Global Equity Research — Mon, 02 Mar 2026 20:35:25 GMT

Chris Waller of Plural Investing presented his investment thesis on GCI Liberty (US: GLIBK) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

GCI Liberty is a classic “hidden gem” spin-off, offering investors the chance to partner with John Malone in his next serial acquisition vehicle at a modest entry price. The core asset is Alaska’s dominant telecommunications provider, a utility-like business that generates persistent FCF. Roughly 70% of revenues are derived from broadband services, primarily delivered to mission-critical institutions like hospitals and schools and heavily subsidized by the Universal Service Fund (USF). Due to Alaska’s harsh geography and low population density, GCI enjoys a natural monopoly with high barriers to entry, evidenced by its 90% share of government funding in the region.

While headline concerns regarding satellite competition exist, Chris argues the risk from Starlink is manageable. Detailed primary research indicates zero churn among Alaska’s 216 hospitals, which require the reliability, latency, and support of GCI’s fiber network—qualities current satellite offerings lack. Churn in the school segment is limited to remote districts without fiber access, a gap GCI is closing through funded infrastructure projects like the AIRRAQ fiber build. Consequently, the core cash flows remain protected, allowing the company to harvest cash from its capital-intensive legacy operations to fund higher-return opportunities elsewhere.

The primary upside driver is the transformation of the company into an “advantaged acquirer” leveraging three distinct strengths: tax efficiency, deal sourcing, and shareholder alignment. The spin-off structure created a ~$1bn tax basis step-up, which, combined with favorable depreciation rules under the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” effectively eliminates cash taxes for the next decade. Furthermore, the company benefits from the expertise of the Liberty Media management team to source deals, a rarity for a small-cap issuer. John Malone’s alignment is robust; holding 7% of the equity and over half the voting power, he has actively purchased shares and backstopped a $300m rights offering to bolster liquidity for M&A.

Management aims to replicate the Liberty Media playbook by leveraging the balance sheet to acquire cash-generative communications assets. Currently under-levered with ~$630m in net debt, the company targets a net debt/EBITDA ratio of 3.0x to 3.5x. Chris estimates this capacity, combined with internal cash generation, provides approximately $2bn in buying power. By acquiring businesses at roughly 5x EBITDA using a mix of debt and tax-shielded cash flows, the company can drive substantial accretion. The goal is to maximize FCF per share, potentially delivering 100-200% equity upside over a three-year horizon as the market re-rates the stock from a telecom multiple to that of a compounder.

The shares recently traded at $37, implying a $1.4bn market cap and a valuation of approximately 10x EV/FCF. This represents a discount to large-cap peers like Comcast and Charter, despite GCI possessing superior tax attributes and lower leverage. Chris posits that even without M&A, the downside is protected by the steady yield of the Alaska business, which trades at roughly 9x FCF on a standalone basis three years out. However, if management executes on the acquisition strategy, the stock could re-rate to 15x FCF or higher. The asymmetry is favorable: investors pay a value multiple for a protected cash cow with an embedded call option on a high-return capital allocation strategy led by a premier operator.

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Chris Waller on GCI Liberty

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Cavco: M&A and Utilization Gains Set Path to Double Earnings

MOI Global Equity Research — Fri, 27 Feb 2026 21:01:14 GMT

James Hannack of Punch & Associates Investment Management presented his investment thesis on Cavco Industries (US: CVCO) at Best Ideas 2026.

Thesis summary:

Cavco is a leading producer of manufactured and modular homes in North America, operating through 33 manufacturing plants and 99 company-owned retail stores. James notes that the industry has undergone substantial consolidation since the Great Recession, evolving from a fragmented landscape into a disciplined oligopoly where the top three players control 85% of the market. This rationalized structure has enabled stable pricing and margins despite volume fluctuations. James highlights that CVCO is particularly well-positioned to consolidate the remaining 15% of the market, as its primary competitor, Clayton, is limited by its existing 50% market share and another peer is undergoing a management transition.

The investment thesis centers on a favorable post-pandemic normalization and the acute shortage of affordable housing. While demand outstripped supply by 50% in FY 2022, constraints have eased, allowing for improved utilization. Manufactured housing represents a viable solution to the national shortage of 3.5 million homes, with HUD-Code units offering an ASP of approximately $85,000—a fraction of the cost of traditional site-built homes. James expects demand to be further supported by real wage growth among lower-end consumers and a stabilization of orders from the REIT and community channels.

Improving regulatory conditions and financing access provide additional tailwinds for the business. James points to recent legislative wins in Texas and New York that mandate more inclusive zoning for HUD-Code homes, effectively lowering barriers to entry in previously restricted municipalities. On the federal level, the industry is gaining visibility in Congress, and there is an ongoing push for GSE participation in the chattel loan market. James believes that involving GSEs would lower interest rates for the roughly one-third of CVCO customers who utilize personal property loans, thereby improving overall housing accessibility.

James identifies a path for the company to double its housing EBIT over the next four years by increasing annual shipments from 20,000 to 30,000 units. This growth is expected to come from restoring plant utilization to 85%, integrating the American Homestar acquisition, and pursuing further organic and inorganic capacity investments. Under the leadership of Bill, who joined the board in 2008 and became CEO in 2019, the company has maintained a fortress balance sheet and a disciplined capital allocation strategy. This approach includes programmatic share repurchases that have reduced the share count by 14% and strategic M&A that adds capacity without disrupting industry supply.

The shares recently traded at a P/E of 28x, justified by CVCO’s high-quality operations and improving ROIC. While the valuation is not optically cheap compared to smaller, less-scaled peers, James sees ~120% upside over a four-year horizon. This assumes EPS reaches $54 through a combination of 400bps in OPM expansion and high incremental margins. The downside is estimated at $280 per share, based on a trough multiple of 2.0x book value, resulting in a favorable 2:1 up-down ratio.

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James Hannack on Cavco

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